Fantasy Football: Key offseason narratives take shape on Sunday in Week 8

Every Sunday, I'm somehow surprised and not surprised at the same time. The action keeps me on the edge of my seat. A tipped pass here, a missed tackle (or many) there and my mood swings with every snap. In the moment, it all feels random.

But once the dust settles, I can usually trace the path. The signs were there. A target share creeping up in September. A run game that never looked right in camp. An offensive line we all worried about in August. We just didn't know when those threads would finally come together or fall apart.

That's where we are after Week 8. Some of the biggest storylines from Sunday felt like shocks while they were happening. But if we look back at a few of the narratives we were debating in the offseason and September, they shouldn't have caught us off guard. So, let's check in on those early takes and see which ones are paying off.

Here's a quick peek behind the curtain. During the first window of Sunday games, I'm taking notes and going back and forth with the crew on what will go into this piece and the theme. I couldn't concentrate after about 4 p.m. ET.

Almost any other week, Joe Burrow leading a game-winning drive in OT would only lower my life expectancy by a year or two. Finally, there's a positive data point in the "is Burrow clutch" argument. Throwing for 462 yards and zipping five TD passes to his pass-catchers isn't bad either. But Burrow threw some of the gas on the fire with multiple turnovers , causing me to yell incoherently at my office wall.

However, the largest problem was on the other side of the ball.

Pressure Rate: 37.0% (Weeks 1-7), 19.0% (against TEN)

Rushing Yards per Game Surrendered: 80.5, 117.0

Passing Success Rate Allowed: 52.0%, 66.0%

To be fair, a couple of the offseason defensive additions showed up when the situation looked bleak. DT Dexter Lawrence sacked Cam Ward, taking the Titans out of FG range and he almost had a scoop-and-score at the start of the second half. DE Boye Mafe set up the turnover. But Tennessee hadn't scored more than 35 points in a game since Week 17 of '21. Ward's highest single-game passing yardage total was 265 until he came to Paycor Stadium. The idea that the Bengals could turn around their defense in a single year now seems, in Step Brothers terms , a little messed up. And Cincinnati's response on offense looked all too familiar.

As I mentioned on Friday, unless DC Al Golden can bring his unit back to even close to league average, just give me more pass-catchers for Burrow . Seven of Chase Brown's 12 carries went for three or fewer yards. Samaje Perine averaged 2.5 YPC while playing 58.8% of the red-zone snaps. All while playing against a defense that came into Week 8 allowing 104.9 YPG to opposing RBs.

Meanwhile, the Bengals used three-WR sets at a season-high 64.3% rate, and got their young pass-catchers into the mix. Rookie TE Jack Endries got his first TD, and WR Dohnte Meyers ran a route on 66.0% of Burrow's dropbacks, picking up a key first down to keep them alive.

Instead of mortgaging its future to fix its ground game, Cincinnati should invest in what makes them a problem for opposing defenses and make Burrow the MVP candidate he's looked like for years.

The Raiders are in a constant "it's so over — we're so back" loop. They brought Klint Kubiak after he orchestrated Seattle's Super Bowl run. But Brock Bowers, their best offensive weapon, needed a meniscus trim before playing a regular-season snap. Kirk Cousins goes on a three-game winning streak, then a trio of losses put us on "Mendoza Watch." Sure, facing the Jets is a get-right spot for most teams. But I don't remember Cousins showing this same type of swagger last year.

Maybe swagger is the wrong descriptor. I'm not completely sure because I don't know what Cousins is doing after his second TD pass. If there's a name for his celly, somebody let me know. Anyway, Cousins operating Kubiak's scheme to near perfection isn't a revelation, after the two worked together in Minnesota. Cousins hit a season-high play-action rate (40.6%), and it was the third straight outing with the personnel grouping requiring at least two TEs on the field. He averaged 1.06 EPA per attempt to the MoF. And seeing the guy responsible for most of the production also isn't much of a shock.

Betting on Kubiak was a bet on him making his top pass-catcher an unguardable weapon. He's lived up to the expectation so far. Bowers just getting to 70 yards for the sixth consecutive game was an accolade on its own. But his utility to the offense goes past how far Bowers moves the ball.

Since coming back to the lineup in Week 3, Bowers ranks 11th amongst all pass-catchers in first downs per route run (12.6%). He sits right between Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja'Marr Chase in that metric. The "TE-WR" is also just inside the top 12 in YPRR ahead of Chase and CeeDee Lamb. And this is all while running just eight fewer routes from the outside than Tee Higgins. A change in coaching is working out for the passing game as we envisioned.

That last sentence had most folks scratching their head well into the second quarter. Jeanty's output as a rusher has been a cause for concern since Week 1. After cracking the century mark against the Dolphins, Jeanty hasn't crossed 60 yards in a game since, and his yards on the ground have receded each week. He's continued to redeem himself as a receiver , but Mike Washington Jr. continues to steal snaps and carries. Washington's moved the chains more often and has a higher success rate on early downs than Jeanty. With his weekly workload rising, Washington will have FLEX appeal in this expanded version of the Raiders' backfield.

It's Not Just Wilson and Hall in New York Anymore

We weren't targeting any of the Jets' skill players until the third or fourth round for a couple of reasons. First, we assumed the team would lag behind the division, but bringing back Geno Smith would stabilize the situation. Second, and more importantly, the idea was that the targets and touches would consolidate on Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. I get that Hall's quad injury has kept him off the field. But even if Hall were active, he might be in the same situation as Jeanty.

Braelon Allen has averaged 22 touches per game with Hall out. He's churned out more than 100 scrimmage yards in four of five starts. That's while opposing defenses have put eight or more in the box on 46.2% of his carries (fifth-highest rate among active starters). It's also after defenders have met Allen at or behind the LOS on 48 of his totes (only Bucky Irving and Derrick Henry have more). And still, you'll find Allen's name in the rank where we'd expect to see Hall's.

Rushing Success Rate: 48.4%, 3rd (out of 19 qualifiers – min. 50% team rushing rate)

Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 4.6, 2nd

Smith's return has done more for their aerial attack than anticipated, too. Luckily, a sideline exchange and spending time with his QB after the game got Wilson's target rate back up over 20%. But during each contest, a few extra names have come into the picture.

Obvious Passing Situations: 14.8% (Mitchell), 11.5% (Taylor), 9.8% (Sadiq)

Downfield: 27.6% (Mitchell), 13.8% (Williams), 10.6% (Cooper)

Red Zone: 16.7% (Williams), 16.7% (Taylor), 16.7% (Sadiq)

Adonai Mitchell is the latest contestant on the "Who's the Jets' WR2" game show. After Omar Cooper Jr. took the title in Week 7, the former Colt turned nine targets into 142 yards. But Mitchell's 25-yard aDOT should have anyone reconsidering slotting him into their WR3 spot in Week 9. While Smith has been willing to let the ball fly downfield, a positive result isn't always in the cards. Plus, with the Jets facing the Chiefs, Wilson should lead the Jets in targets yet again.

It Was All About The Young Boys at RB for Broncos and Chiefs

The battle for the AFC West totaled 543 passing yards and five TDs. Patrick Mahomes was the first QB to complete three TD passes against Denver. Bo Nix was ripping passes to Jaylen Waddle downfield. The game came down to the final play.

But the two players that stood out were the rookies, not the vets.

Well, I did say last Friday that Mahomes needed another receiver . And granted, the Broncos defense isn't the best place to find out if you're on the same page as your QB. But both Andrew Armstrong and Jalen Royals ran fewer routes on Sunday than when they played the Seahawks. Cyrus Allen got in some more cardio, but earned just one more target. In short, the environment was conducive to more RB targets, but instead of Kenneth Walker III doing most of the damage, Emmett Johnson became The Engine of the offense.

I know a single game can skew rate stats. But there was more to Johnson's 187-yard outburst than taking a screen pass to the house. The first-year rusher broke six tackles across his six touches on the day. His lone carry went for 15 yards. While we can't expect half of his touches to turn into explosive gains every week, establishing himself as the ideal backup to Walker (with a rushing and receiving skill set) should put him on everyone's radar as a bench stash.

But for Denver, if you got its RB1 off waivers, you've found an every-week starter.

If I've preached anything, it's about applying context before reacting. Jonah Coleman reaching 100 yards and finding the box in his second game would have anyone declaring him a solid RB2 for the rest of the season. But let me at least take a look under the hood regarding his utilization before we pin "league winner" to his name.

Rushing Rate (Week 8): 61.1% (Coleman), 38.9% (Dobbins)

The Broncos ran the ball five times from inside Kansas City's 5-yard line. Not only did Dobbins stay off the field for all of those plays, but Coleman handled four of the carries (Nix took the other). With RJ Harvey on IR, Coleman took all of the third-down plays, too. The situation is lining up for the rookie to take over as the starter as Denver looks to maintain their spot atop the division. And with the Panthers up before their bye, Coleman has a chance to force the decision sooner rather than later.

No Terry? The Commanders Are Still Scary Enough

Early-season returns on Washington's offense highlighted its need for ancillary pass-catchers. Remember, Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels were the only Commanders skill players with a top-100 ADP. On the plus side, both rookie Antonio Williams and veteran Stefon Diggs opened '26 with TDs. But McLaurin, at 230 receiving yards, being a handful behind the team lead (Williams – 259), only amplifies how far the team needs to go to find a consistent passing attack. But there was an injury from Week 5 that we took for granted.

Rachaad White's 33-yard run in the fourth quarter was Washington's longest run since Jacory Croskey-Merritt's TD scamper against the Giants in Week 5. Since then, White and Austin Ekeler have taken 21 of the 27 first-down carries. Both are below a 30% rushing success rate. And at least against a good defense, Daniels found himself needing an average of 8.4 yards on third down to convert. Assuming Croskey-Merritt is ready to go by Week 11 , he'll get the Bengals and Cardinals, which should put him back at the RB1 spot. Until then, though, the inefficiencies on the ground have given us more of a glimpse of the passing game.

The Commanders have used 11-personnel groupings on 90.5% of their passing plays over their last two games. Treylon Burks has operated as the X-receiver with 38.0% of Daniels' air yards. As the "McLaurin replacement," Burks will garner the tougher defensive assignments, limiting his weekly output. Typically, we'd turn to the guy getting the lay-up targets, but three different guys have laid claim to those.

Stefon Diggs (Weeks 6-8): 21.0%, 5.5 (aDOT), 71.8% (Slot Rate)

Daniels has looked to the rookie the most on third downs, but Diggs has earned the most looks when the Commanders get into scoring position. At the same time, Okonkwo overlaps both receivers in terms of how often he lines up in the slot and the types of routes he runs.

Daniels has just two games with more than 30 pass attempts. Marcus Mariota only had one. Washington's playstyle already puts a cap on the number of QB dropbacks. And with multiple options at Daniels' disposal, none of them profile as worthwhile starters outside of deep leagues.