Wales v Japan: Nations Championship date starts pivotal month for Welsh rugby

Welsh rugby's autumn series always seems to creep up on you.

It provides the first glimpse of winter and Welsh rugby fans will be hoping there is not much more discontent over the next four weeks.

There is a new tournament to be embraced as the inaugural Nations Championship returns with three rounds of games to follow the opening trio of matches in July.

With a win and two defeats in the first half of the tournament, Wales host Japan on Saturday before further games against New Zealand and Australia in Cardiff.

The 12 sides will then descend on the Allianz Stadium in Twickenham for a fourth set of matches with a three-day finals weekend to determine final placings.

November could prove a pivotal month for Welsh rugby, in more ways than one.

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First up for Wales is the now familiar foe of Eddie Jones' Japan - the teams will be facing each other for a fourth time in 16 months.

There is also the distinct possibility that the two sides could be paired together again at Twickenham at the end of the month in the tournament finale.

Wales have won two out of those three games against Japan since July 2025, with the last-gasp win in Cardiff a year ago giving head coach Steve Tandy his first Test victory.

Tandy is now preparing for his fourth campaign and has two further tournaments ahead before leading Wales into the World Cup in Australia in just under a year.

He has won three games and suffered nine defeats in 12 internationals, with another victory in the uncapped international against Barbarians.

Wales stand 10th in the world rankings with that hat-trick of Test victories coming against Fiji (ranked ninth), Italy (11th) and Japan (12th).

"We're probably on par with where I'd like us to be but we want to kick on faster than we have done,” said Tandy.

"If you look at where we were 12 months ago, the boys had won just one of 26 matches. Now we've started winning again, with four victories in 13 matches."

The Wales head coach refused to give a target of how many games his side ought to win this autumn. The Welsh public, however, should expect two victories, to show some progress and at least push a top-eight nation like Australia close.

Tandy does, though, insist that where Wales finish in the inaugural Nations Championship is important.

"It always matters, we want to finish as high up in any tournament but the only thing we can control is our performance," he said.

"We understand we're going to have to hit the ground running quickly."

Captain Dewi Lake backed this up by saying Wales are in the best state he can remember heading into a campaign.

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There can be no excuses against Japan, who are down to a third-choice fly-half and number eight, despite the tourists these days boasting a monster forward pack.

A home defeat, and Wales face a failed autumn campaign after just one weekend of action.

Tandy also has a number of in-form players at his disposal. One of the week's narratives has been how well Welsh players are performing in the English Prem.

It is underlined by Tandy picking a record 12 players from English clubs in his 23, with nine - including six forwards - in his first XV.

Starters such as Nicky Smith, Jac Morgan, Aaron Wainwright and Dewi Lake have outlined how their games have improved since joining English clubs.

A steady selection policy will also be important with Tandy having just named a sixth centre partnership in 13 internationals by partnering Max Llewellyn with Eddie James.

"We'll have to have an open mind because there are four pretty big Test matches, back-to-back," said Tandy.

"There will naturally be changes, whether it be rotation or because of injuries, but also we've got players in certain positions we feel could be brought in."

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While eyes will be on the team and their performance on the pitch, they will also be fixated on how many empty seats will be in the Principality Stadium stands.

Unwanted records have already been set during the past 12 months. The 50,185 that watched the opening game against Argentina in 2025's autumn series was the lowest for a non-Covid era game since 2016.

Three months later, 57,744 for the 54-12 hammering by France in February was the smallest Six Nations crowd seen in Cardiff.

Some readily comparative targets this month will be the 61,324 and 68,388 that were given as attendances for games against Japan and New Zealand a year ago.

Welsh rugby is fascinated with crowd numbers but there is an important financial element to them.

The Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) relies on attendances at men's international matches for more than half its turnover.

So, empty seats would represent badly needed lost revenue with the WRU having announced an £18m loss last month.

Wales players, including the popular and well-connected Louis Rees-Zammit, have been on their social media accounts posting ticket links.

Lake hopes the squad's performances can bring back the fans.

"We've built massive connections with supporters over the last 18 months in terms of on-field stuff," said the hooker.

"They can see the passion and care we show when representing them, the jersey and the country.

"We know it's on us to excite them and to make them bring noise. It's not just going to happen on its own."

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Filling the ground is not just the squad's responsibility. The WRU also has to look at themselves.

Reasons for fans saying they are staying away will include the cost of tickets and the day out itself, although there have been a number of concessions this autumn.

There are also the previous results of the men's side and the continued apathy towards the Welsh rugby soap opera which shows no sign of abating.

Before this season started, you had Wales captain Lake citing one of his reasons for leaving Ospreys for Gloucester was the uncertainty surrounding the Welsh game, and expressing his relief that he would not have to deal with that issue on a daily basis.

That should prove a wake-up call. The Wales men's senior team could deflect from those concerns by winning games in the next year - but the underlying issues remain.

Public faith and confidence in the WRU is very low because of the manner in which the game has been governed in the past, and how it is being handled currently.

On the one hand, the WRU board are determined to cut a professional side by 2028.

The governing body has announced they will award licences to Cardiff and Dragons. That pits Ospreys and Scarlets against each other for the west Wales licence with a final decision expected by the summer of 2027.

Then you have the new WRU chair Lyndon Faulkner coming in and suggesting he will look at everything, including keeping four professional sides.

You also have the latest twist of the WRU trying to get two sides into an Anglo-Welsh tournament, the same number of professional teams the Union initially wanted when they first announced their reduction policy.

Confused? You would not be alone. Is it two, three or four teams? What league will they play in? Has the plan changed again?

The futures of players and coaches are at stake. Supporters want to know whether their team will continue to exist.

Ironically, securing an Anglo-Welsh league and leaving the United Rugby Championship (URC) would probably improve the WRU’s popularity among sections of the Welsh public.

There will be an annual general meeting (AGM) the day after Wales play Australia this month, and a rugby summit has been proposed for December, where supporters will hope clarity and transparency is provided.

Before then, Wales have four rugby games to try and win, starting today. An opening victory will ensure Welsh rugby starts the month in a brighter place.

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Wales: Murray; Rees-Zammit, James, Llewellyn, Adams; Costelow, Tomos Williams; Smith, Lake (capt), Griffin, Jenkins, Carter, Mann, Morgan, Wainwright.

Replacements: Elias, Carre, Francis, Teddy Williams, Botham, Morgan-Williams, D Edwards, Hennessey.

Japan: Ueda; Ishida, Riley, Tua, Burua; Kitahara, Saito (co-capt); Kamimori, Harada, Takeuchi, Hockings, Dearns (co-capt), Gunter, Shimokawa, Cornelsen.

Replacements: Sato, Otsuka, Helu, Stolberg, Costley, Fukuda, Komura, Lee.

Assistant referees: Christophe Ridley (England), Angus Mabey (New Zealand)

Television match official (TMO): Glenn Newman (New Zealand)

Saturday, 11 July: Argentina 35-21 Wales

Saturday, 18 July: South Africa 43-0 Wales

Saturday, 7 November: Wales v Japan, Principality Stadium, Cardiff, 16:40 GMT

Saturday, 14 November: Wales v New Zealand, Principality Stadium, Cardiff, 14:10 GMT

Saturday, 21 November: Wales v Australia, Principality Stadium, Cardiff, 20:10 GMT.