Before you go RB-RB to start your fantasy draft, consider this warning

Something happened last season that hasn't happened since 2011 or earlier. It's a statistical outlier disguised as a new norm. If you're planning to take two running backs in the first two rounds of your fantasy draft, consider the following.

The top-10 RBs -- based on ADP -- entering Week 1 last year collectively missed only four games all season, accounting for only 2% of their teams' contests. How unusual was that? Across the previous 14 seasons, dating back to 2012, the top-10 ADP running backs had missed an average of 19% of their games.

What happened in 2011 or earlier? No clue, because reliable ADPs are hard to find prior to 2012. So, for all intents and purposes, last year's top-10 RBs were durable to an unprecedented degree.

As a result, most of them crushed it fantasy-wise; that's what happens when great starters stay on the field week after week. Also, as a result, most of them are once again in the top 10 in ADP.

Not surprising, and also quite concerning, especially considering Christian McCaffrey's massive injury/regression risks , Saquon Barkley's advancing age and high-end handcuff status, and Jonathan Taylor's extensive injury history, which most managers seem to have forgotten after last year's MVP-level output.

To be clear, some RBs are safer than others. But collectively, what happened last year was an anomaly. We should expect this year's top 10 to miss at least 15% of their games. Hopefully you pick the right guys.

For a deeper dive into the overall risks of going RB-RB in your draft, listen to this recent podcast episode .