Falcons vs. Packers 'Thursday Night Football' betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets, player props

Things will heat up under the bright lights at Lambeau Field on Thursday when the Green Bay Packers (1-1) host the winless Atlanta Falcons (0-2) in a crucial matchup for both franchises.

The Packers have struggled on both sides of the ball, suffering a 39-22 loss against Minnesota in their season opener before needing overtime to fend off the New York Jets in a 20-17 win this past Sunday.

As for their foes, things couldn't be going much worse. The Falcons, who dropped a 20-13 road decision against Pittsburgh in Week 1, were handed a 34-3 blowout defeat against Carolina in their Week 2 home opener.

Here are a few wagers I like on Thursday night.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-5, 43.5)

This game opened with Green Bay as a 7.5-point favorite, but heavy money started pouring in on Atlanta when it was announced quarterback Michael Penix Jr. would make his first start of the season after tearing his left ACL in Week 11 a year ago.

My guess is we will see the late public money come in on the Packers throughout the day Thursday. However, I like the winless Falcons to keep this one close and potentially spring a big upset.

Here are some interesting data points for Atlanta backers:

Teams starting 0-2 straight up and against the spread are 30-12 ATS (71.4%) in Week 3 as underdogs dating back to 2015.

Teams that begin 0-2 are 40-17-1 ATS (70.2%) facing 1-1 opponents since 2010.

Since 1980, only 12% of teams starting 0-2 have made the playoffs.

Kevin Stefanski is a perfect 5-0 in Thursday night games, so we should have a determined, motivated Atlanta team believing it can pull off the Thursday night shocker.

The return of Penix also means someone competent will be under center to get the ball to do-it-all running back Bijan Robinson , as well as wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts . Atlanta has a dismal 23.1% third-down conversion rate so far, but I'm expecting we'll see this number will start to improve with No. 9 back calling the shots.

With that in mind, I'm parlaying Atlanta to cover the spread and the total staying under the points at slightly higher numbers to get us into a plus-money wager.

Both offenses struggled last week moving the ball and I don't see either fixing its issues four days removed from those games. Expect a tight affair and this one to be decided late.

Bet: Same Game Parlay with alternate lines: Falcons +7.5 and under 46.5 (+135, FanDuel)

WR Christian Watson over 4.5 receptions (-138, FanDuel)

If there has been one bright spot for the Green Bay offense thus far, it has been Watson.

Through two games, the Packers standout finds himself ranked seventh in the NFL in total targets (19), with 11 coming in Sunday's squeaker against the Jets. In the season opener, Watson finished with six catches for 148 yards and two touchdowns in defeat.

Combine those stats with the fact that Green Bay is facing a team that just let Carolina quarterback Bryce Young torch it for 287 and three touchdown passes, and Watson is primed for another monster outing.

Love is going to have to get the ball out quickly to his cast of receivers, since his offensive line couldn't be in any worse shape. Injuries galore have beset Green Bay, with right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele as the latest fallen lineman to be deemed out for the season.

With an Atlanta defense that will consistently try to pressure Love, I fully expect Watson to be the popular target via shorter routes. Veteran Atlanta cornerback A.J. Terrell was placed on the IR this week with a groin injury, which gives me even more confidence Watson will be on Love's radar — and open — throughout the night.

TE Kyle Pitts over 37.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)

To say it has been a disappointing start to the season for Pitts would be an understatement.

Pitts, who earned second-team All-Pro honors last season after hauling in 88 catches for 928 yards and five touchdowns, has just one reception for 15 years through two games. Mind you, Pitts had quarterbacks Cooper Rush and Jack Strand running the offense, so I'm cutting him some major slack.

With Penix back, I fully expect we see the usually busy version of Pitts, who became the NFL's third highest-paid tight end in the offseason via a three-year deal worth $54 million.

Pitts cleared this number in six of nine games last season when Penix started, so we know the sixth-year pro is one of his favorite go-to guys. And the statistics back it up, with Pitts racking up 30 receptions on 38 targets in those six contests.

In the season opener, Minnesota tight ends T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver combined for six catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Pitts is better than both — and any tight end that the Jets sent out against the Packers — so we should see a big night from him.

Our Monday angle was that tight end Terrance Ferguson would pick up the slack for the Los Angeles Rams when Puka Nacua would miss the clash with the New York Giants .

Needless to say, Ferguson delivered for his backers with six catches for 54 yards and a touchdown.

Last Thursday, we targeted fellow tight ends Sam LaPorta ( Detroit ) and Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo) to score in that showdown. And both found the end zone to help us sweep those picks.

Fast forward to Thursday's showdown and we have a prime spot for another tight end to shine. The Packers will be without the services of wide receiver Jayden Reed , who suffered a neck injury against the Jets and will miss a substantial amount of time. That creates a massive hole in an offense still trying to find its identity.

Suffice it to say, this is a perfect spot for Kraft to become a focal point of the Green Bay aerial attack and recreate the success he enjoyed last season (44 catches for 489 yards and six touchdowns) in just eight games after suffering an ACL tear in a Nov. 2 loss against Carolina.

Kraft is coming off a game where he played 98% of the offensive snaps and now faces an Atlanta defense that has already yielded three touchdowns to tight ends this season.

Piggybacking on my insight in regard to the betting angle on his receiving yards, I like Pitts to get into the end zone, as well. With Robinson and London garnering the majority of the offensive attention, the 6-foot-6 tight end should be able to feast on some mismatches with the smaller Green Bay linebackers and secondary unit.

And to get this wager at this price is just too good to pass up in this spot.