NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1 Games

Before the first Sunday of the 2026 regular season kicks off, let's have some fun by taking a look at the lines for the NFL Week 1 games.

My overall record last season was 125-129-1, which was just narrowly behind the BGN community at 126-128-1. Let's see if you can beat me once again.

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

BUFFALO BILLS (-1.5) at HOUSTON TEXANS : Josh Allen had a 56.4 passer rating against DeMeco Ryans ' defense in 2024. He had a 67.4 passer rating against that unit in 2025. Safe to say that the Texans might have answers for Allen. Give me the home dogs! PICK: Texans +1.5

CHICAGO BEARS (-3) at CAROLINA PANTHERS : The Bears are a regression candidate but they might be able to weather that storm due to Ben Johnson's prowess. Does anyone really have faith in Bryce Young and this Panthers team? Enough to wager on them? PICK: Bears -3

CLEVELAND BROWNS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-8.5): Betting on Deshaun Watson to come through for me? Yeah, I'll pass. The Browns are prime contenders for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. I don't know if the Jags will be any good … but I could buy them being slept on more than I can buy the Browns doing anything good. PICK: Jaguars -8.5

ATLANTA FALCONS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6.5): Cooper Rush is going to light up this Steelers defense in Pittsburgh ! Now realize how that ridiculous that sounds. PICK: Steelers -6.5

NEW YORK JETS at TENNESSEE TITANS (-1.5): Easier to feel inspired by the Titans' potential for improvement (nowhere to go but up!) than it is by anything the Jets have going on. I'll bet on Cam Ward 's upside before I place any faith in Geno Smith . I could see a Robert Saleh revenge game. PICK: Titans -1.5

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at DETROIT LIONS (-6.5): The Saints are the trendy sleeper pick but I think the Lions are the NFL's real sleeper. They're going to be much better than they were last season. PICK: Lions -6.5

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS : The Colts were a flash in a pan for half of the 2025 season. Regular season Lamar Jackson isn't one to bet against. PICK: Ravens -3.5

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3.5): The Bucs would've been friskier had they not paid Baker Mayfield . I'm backing Joe Burrow in this battle. PICK: Bengals -3.5

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-5.5): I really just don't like this matchup for the Commanders. Washington has had no answers for Saquon Barkley since he joined the Eagles. The Birds are going to run the ball on this defense. And Philadelphia's pass rush is going to make life difficult for Jayden Daniels . The only hesitation for me here is this line not being larger in the Eagles' favor. But maybe that's just accounting for general Week 1 uncertainty. The Eagles are winning this game. Just a question of by how much. PICK: Eagles -5.5

GREEN BAY PACKERS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-1.5): The Packers have some not so good vibes going on. Kyler Murray is hard to trust down the stretch but he could conceivably have some regular season success early on. PICK: Vikings -1.5

MIAMI DOLPHINS at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-3): The Dolphins are going to be really bad. The Raiders might also be bad … but I think there's some energy there for them to be more competitive than most would expect. PICK: Raiders -3

ARIZONA CARDINALS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-8.5): Don't know how much I believe in the Bolts, though I am interested to see how the Justin Herbert-Mike McDaniel pairing works out. But it's impossible to believe in the Cardinals. PICK: Chargers -8.5

DALLAS COWBOYS (-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS : As a big benefit of the doubt guy, I can't pick the Giants. Maybe it's a new era for them … but let's see it before we believe it. The Cowboys have owned them for way too long now to predict an upset. I also think Dallas is going to have a good season, unfortunately. PICK: Cowboys -3

DENVER BRONCOS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2.5): Why should the Chiefs be less than standard three-point favorites? People are sleeping on them and giving the Broncos too much credit. PICK: Chiefs -2.5