NFL odds, betting, storylines: 3 underdogs to back in Week 1

In 2021, Christmas came early — very early — for NFL underdog bettors. Not only did a dozen Week 1 underdogs cover the spread that year, nine scored outright upsets.

Since then? Favorites have dominated the scoreboard, winning nearly 70% of the 64 season-opening games (44-19-1). Throw in the betting line, however, and it's a dead heat: 32 favorites and 32 underdogs have covered the Week 1 spread over the past four years.

This is hardly an aberration. In fact, per SportsOddsHistory.com , at least seven underdogs have cashed Week 1 tickets for 18 consecutive seasons.

Will that impressive trend continue in 2026? Put it this way: I'm not betting against it. Here are three NFL underdogs I'm recommending in Week 1.

The Cleveland Browns spent the past several months being, well … the Cleveland Browns.

First, they traded a generational defensive player ( Myles Garrett ). Then they got outscored 65-17 in their first two preseason games (despite being favored in both). Then they handed the starting quarterback job to an oft-injured (and much-maligned) veteran who looked like an undrafted rookie in his final dress rehearsal appearance.

So of course I'm backing the Browns in Week 1.

Look, I know new coach Todd Monken took a lot of heat for naming Deshaun Watson his starting quarterback. But that doesn't mean it was the wrong decision.

Yes, Watson was atrocious against Buffalo in his final preseason game (5-of-12, 36 yards, one interception). But he played with the backups in that contest. The previous week at Chicago , Watson was 11-of-15 for 126 yards.

Simply put, I trust Watson on the road in Week 1 against a solid Jaguars defense more than I do Shedeur Sanders , who last year had one touchdown, four interceptions and a 55 quarterback rating as a visitor.

Another reason to grab the points with the Browns: Despite losing Garrett, they plugged a lot of holes in free agency and the draft. Also, unlike a lot of teams, Cleveland emerged from training camp extremely healthy.

Finally, because so many bettors are down on the Browns, we're dealing with an inflated point spread. Keep in mind, Cleveland opened last season as a five-point underdog at Cincinnati and nearly scored an upset, losing 17-16 but improving to 4-0 ATS since 2021 as a Week 1 underdog.

Also worth noting: Since 2021, Week 1 favorites of six points or more are 10-4-1 on the field but just 4-11 at the wagering window.

If you're laying points in this contest, you're convinced that the Bengals have fixed their horrendous defense and head coach Zac Taylor will have his troops ready to roll.

After ranking 25th in both total defense and scoring defense in 2025, Cincinnati slid to 31st (381 yards per game) and 30th (29 points per game) in both categories last year.

So of course the front office targeted that side of the ball in the offseason, most notably trading for nose tackle Dexter Lawrence II and signing edge rusher Jonathan Allen . But it's reasonable to wonder how much both have left in the tank. Allen is entering his ninth season, while Lawrence — who had a half-sack in 17 games with the Giants last year after recording nine in 2024 — is in his eighth.

The Bengals did use their first two draft picks on edge rusher Cashius Howell and safety Tacario Davis . However, both begin the season as backups. And don't forget that Trey Hendrickson , who had 61 sacks in five seasons with Cincinnati, is now in Baltimore .

Another reason to be leery of the Bengals: Under Taylor, they are 2-5 SU and ATS in season openers — and the wins were hardly convincing (27-24 over Minnesota in 2021; 17-16 over Cleveland last year).

Since Joe Burrow 's rookie season in 2020, the Bengals have averaged 15 points in Week 1 — and that average has dipped to 12.5 the past four years.

What about the Buccaneers? They've won five straight openers, including three on the road. Baker Mayfield 's touchdown-to-interception ratio in his three Week 1 games with Tampa Bay: 9-0.

It's been exactly two decades since the Bears kicked off a season as road favorites. In 2006, they traveled to Green Bay and pummeled the Packers 26-0 as 3.5-point chalk.

Number of times this decade Chicago has been a road favorite in any week? Three. That's also the number of times in the last dozen years the Bears started a season 1-0.

Obviously, these trends aren't reason enough to fade the Bears at Carolina. (After all, the Panthers' lone Week 1 victory in the last six years came against the Jets.)

Rather, I'm simply noting that Chicago is swimming in unfamiliar waters as a short Week 1 road favorite. And it is doing so against a feisty opponent that went 11-5 ATS as an underdog last season (including a wild-card game) and delivered eight outright upsets.

Am I completely sold on Carolina quarterback Bryce Young ? No. But I am convinced the defense — which was vastly improved last year and added several solid pieces in the offseason — will take another step forward in 2026.

At the same time, I expect the entire Bears operation to take a few steps back. In going 11-6 last season — their first winning campaign in seven years — they were 6-3 in games decided by five points or fewer, including consecutive 25-24 road victories over the Commanders and Raiders .

A huge reason for that success in close games: incredible luck. Chicago recovered two-thirds of all fumbles that hit the turf, leading directly to an NFL-best plus-22 turnover ratio.

Regression is coming for the Bears in 2026. And it's starting in Week 1.