'Absolute S--t Show,' NFL Exec Defends Arch Manning, Top QBs as Scouts Question 2027 Draft Stock

Coming off back-to-back losses in which he did not play well, Texas quarterback Arch Manning still has supporters in the NFL after entering the season as a frontrunner to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 draft.

Per The Ringer's Tom Pelissero , one NFL scouting director who defended Manning described trying to evaluate the 2027 quarterback class as an "absolute s--t show" in part because of how much roster and coaching turnover there is in college football:

"One NFL team's college scouting director cautioned against reading too much into the early-season play of Manning or any other quarterback, given how the transfer portal churns rosters and the impact a coordinator change can make if a player is struggling. But the scouting director also summed up the challenge of evaluating talent without any real sense of who will even be available next April: 'It's all an absolute s--t show.'"

Another interesting note from Pelissero is the amount of "skepticism" from people in the NFL about how many of the projected top quarterbacks eligible for the '27 draft will even declare, including Manning:

"Several high-ranking NFL executives and scouts expressed skepticism this week that some, if not a majority, of the projected top QBs will even enter the 2027 NFL draft. That includes Manning, who was the clear preseason favorite to be the no. 1 pick. He has struggled enough recently that his grip on the Longhorns' starting job could even be in jeopardy, with ESPN reporting Monday that redshirt freshman KJ Lacey Jr. would get an uptick in first-team reps this week in practice ahead of the Longhorns' game against Ole Miss. The once unthinkable possibility that Manning could transfer before he goes pro can't be ruled out. I talked about this with Bill Simmons on his show Thursday night."

A strong finish to the 2025 season had Manning's stock very high coming into this year. He was projected as the No. 3 overall pick by B/R's NFL scouting department in an early mock that dropped on Sept. 7.

Manning started this season with a marquee win over Ohio State on Sept. 12 in which Texas scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to erase a 23-3 deficit.

Even though Manning's numbers in that game weren't spectacular (195 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception), he was at the helm for all three of those touchdown drives that were at least 72 yards.

Since that victory against Ohio State, though, Manning has failed to capitalize on it. He has thrown for 795 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions with a 62.3 completion percentage in his last four starts, including consecutive losses against Oklahoma and Florida.

The problem for NFL teams evaluating the 2027 quarterback class is many of the major prospects are injured right now.

Oregon's Dante Moore, who is B/R's No. 2 quarterback prospect, hasn't played since Sept. 26 due to a concussion. Ohio State's Julian Sayin (unranked by B/R) could miss at least the remainder of the regular season due to an injury suffered against Indiana on Oct. 17.

Players like Darian Mensah of Miami (B/R's No. 1 QB), Trinidad Chambliss of Mississippi (No. 3) and Drew Mestemaker of Oklahoma State (No. 7) have a strong opportunity to solidify their draft stock.

If those players feel like they are assured of being first-round picks in the '27 draft, it's hard to envision them turning down the guaranteed money that comes with it.

But if NFL teams express any skepticism that could push them into Day 2, the NIL money might be too much for them to resist going back to college for another season.