New coach, new defense, high expectations for Bills in power rankings

Two hundred and thirty-nine days. That's how long Buffalo Bills fans have waited for meaningful football to return.

When the Bills lost to the Denver Broncos in overtime, 33-30, on Jan. 17, during an AFC divisional playoff game, it triggered a cascade of changes in Orchard Park. Here's the short list:

Head coach Sean McDermott and nearly the entire coaching staff were fired.

Offensive coordinator Joe Brady was hired as head coach.

The defense was switched from a hybrid 4-3 to a 3-4, with Jim Leonhard brought in to oversee it.

The team ultimately opted to trade out of the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft.

The Bills traded for a veteran agent wide receiver ( D.J. Moore ) for Josh Allen .

Oh, and the Bills opened their new $2.2 billion stadium.

Surprisingly, after all that tumult, Buffalo is pretty much where it's always been in the power rankings: a top-five team.

As the Bills prepare to open their season on the road against the Houston Texans , Buffalo's average power ranking is 3.5. The median is also 3.5.

Bills: New coach Joe Brady will bring a much more aggressive approach to this team. That's something that is badly needed.

Texans: We know the defense will be dominant, so it's all about the offense. More specifically, it's about C.J. Stroud . He has to be better.

Bills projected win total: 10.8. The defense is undergoing a significant change, entering a 3-4 scheme with six new starters, and that's part of the reason for hope. The other is a fresh start with coach Joe Brady that could get this team over the hump and into the Super Bowl. Even if last season didn't go as planned, it's hard to keep a Josh Allen-led team out of the top five entering the season.

Texans projected win total: 9.3. There's no defensive line in the NFL more feared than the Texans', which boasts an embarrassment of riches after adding Jadeveon Clowney to a group that already featured Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter . So we know the defense should be very good. The big question is what can C.J. Stroud do in Year 4 after his 2025 campaign ended with a terrible playoff performance. They may have to win games 17-14.

Bills: There isn't a team east of Los Angeles more in Super Bowl-or-bust mode than the Buffalo Bills .

The Bills dismissed their highly successful coach because he couldn't get the team over the hump. They are led by Josh Allen, who has more playoff wins than any quarterback in NFL history without a Super Bowl appearance.

The good news is the team should be in the thick of it in the AFC. The offense has the league's reigning rushing king and a new No. 1 wide receiver in D.J. Moore . The defense ranked seventh in the league last year.

The bad news is that the Bills have been in the thick of it for the better part of a decade, but for whatever reason they come up short in the postseason. — Gary Davenport

Texans: The Houston Texans will go as far as quarterback C.J. Stroud takes them. He doesn't need to operate at any MVP standard for the Texans to become a serious Super Bowl contender, either.

Houston 's defense is already good enough to place the team among the NFL's best. The quarterback simply needs to be better than what's been seen the last two seasons and closer to how he performed as a rookie.

The pieces are now around him after the acquisition of running back David Montgomery and the front office reworking the offensive line.

For most NFL teams, the idea of playing complementary football is getting enough from a defense to ensure the squad's high-flying offense doesn't find itself in a shootout every week. In Houston's case, its defense dictates terms.

However, the Texans need to consistently move the ball offensively. If Stroud and Co. do so, the AFC will be ripe for the taking. — Brent Sobleski

Bills' odds of making the playoffs/winning Super Bowl: 77%/8%.

For the first time since 2017, the Bills will have a leader other than Sean McDermott — but promoting former offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach should retain Buffalo's hyper-efficient offense with Josh Allen and James Cook . All eyes are on Jim Leonhard as the Bills' new defensive coordinator, looking to round out a unit with question marks but talent at all three levels. Buffalo enters the season with the highest division odds (56%) of any team, with a weaker AFC East making the Bills seem like a near-playoff lock for the eighth straight season.

Texans' odds of making the playoffs/winning Super Bowl: 66%/5%

Houston's defense was one of the most defining units of the entire 2025 season, and the group looks extremely stout yet again with Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, Derek Stingley Jr. , Jalen Pitre , Kamari Lassiter and many more. Houston's offense — especially quarterback C.J. Stroud — looks to perform better after a playoff flameout, with the addition of David Montgomery and an updated offensive line changing the equation. DeMeco Ryans ' defense sets a high floor for Houston, although the team's ceiling will ultimately be dictated by what the other side of the ball can achieve after placing 27th in explosive play rate last year.

Stock up, stock down on 6 Bills heading into the first preseason game

Bills: The feel-good vibes in Western New York are hard to ignore, even amid all the changes for what's become a perennial AFC power … and, perhaps for the first time in more than three decades, the AFC's preeminent force.

Texans : A defense that ceded more than 300 yards just six times last year might need to be even better until QB C.J. Stroud and an offense already coping with significant injuries can find its footing. But that could be a tall order given some of the high-powered attacks the Texans will face in the next two months.

Chances to make the playoffs: 84.1% Chances to win division: 67.1% Projected wins: 10.7 Strength of schedule: 14th easiest 2025 record: 12-5

Bills' biggest strength: Josh Allen. It's pretty simple. The Bills have an opportunity to win a Super Bowl once again this year, despite a first-time head coach, and that's because of who is playing quarterback. Allen, 30, is going into his ninth NFL season and has a new No. 1 receiver in DJ Moore. Breaking records has become commonplace for the 2024 MVP, and Allen gives the team a chance in every game. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Biggest concern: It is a transition year for the new defensive scheme. Coordinator Jim Leonhard has been open about the fact this year's defense will not fully look like his vision for the unit as it transitions from a 4-3 to 3-4 base. There is a mix of new players who fit the scheme specifically and carryovers from the previous regime. How the group comes together will go a long way in determining the unit's success. -- Getzenberg

QB stat to know: Allen's dual-threat ability is unlike anything the NFL has seen. Allen already has 299 passing and rushing TDs combined in his first eight seasons, 40 more than the next-closest player ( Patrick Mahomes , 259). In fact, he already has the most through a player's first nine seasons (next closest: Peyton Manning , 288). -- ESPN Research

Best-case scenario for 2026, per FPI: 13-4 Worst-case scenario for 2026, per FPI: 8-9

This season is a success if ... the Bills reach the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for new coach Joe Brady, that's the bar. Maximizing Allen's tenure is the priority, and anything comparable to or less than what Sean McDermott accomplished won't make for a fully successful season. -- Getzenberg

One key fantasy nugget: Allen gives fantasy managers a major boost when the Bills have the ball on the doorstep of the end zone. He converted 22 of 28 true goal-line carries (78.6%) over the past three seasons. -- Matt Bowen

Bold prediction for 2026: Wide receiver Keon Coleman will record 750 or more receiving yards and at least five touchdowns -- both career highs. Earlier this offseason I thought there was a decent chance he'd be on a different team by now. But Coleman also hasn't been that bad in his first two years, posting a 49 overall score in ESPN's receiver score (just below average) and 1.6 yards per route run. Even though the Bills added Moore, I could see Coleman having a mini breakout in Year 3. -- Seth Walder

Out of thousands, these Bills Camp photos made the cut for Shawn Dowd

Chances to make the playoffs: 58.9% Chances to win division: 40.5% Projected wins: 9.3 Strength of schedule: 10th hardest 2025 record: 12-5

Biggest strength: How could it be anything but Houston's defense? It's arguably the best in the NFL, and it brought back nine of 11 starters. The unit holds three All-Pros in cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., to pair with their defensive end duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. There are also three other Pro Bowlers on the unit with linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair , safety Calen Bullock and cornerback Kamari Lassiter. -- DJ Bien-Aime

Biggest concern: Well the general consensus would be quarterback C.J. Stroud, but in reality it's the people protecting Stroud. When he's protected, he has produced a QBR of 66 in his career (15th since 2023), but when he's under pressure, it drops to 27. If the offensive line can protect him, that also means the run game should be effective. There are potentially two new starters on the unit in center Evan Brown and rookie guard Keylan Rutledge. -- Bien-Aime

QB stat to know: After one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history in 2023, Stroud has struggled to replicate that success in the following two seasons -- due in part to having one of the worst offensive line units last season, ranking last in run block win rate (68%) and 30th in pass block win rate (56%). In 2023 Houston ranked 25th in RBWR (70%) and 10th in PBWR (61%). -- ESPN Research

Best-case scenario for 2026, per FPI: 12-5 Worst-case scenario for 2026, per FPI: 7-10

This season is a success if ... Stroud looks like what people thought he would become after his historic rookie season. The Texans have Super Bowl aspirations, and that could put them in line to raise the Lombardi Trophy. -- Bien-Aime

One key fantasy nugget: To improve their run game, the Texans traded for running back David Montgomery and upgraded the offensive line. Montgomery, who has 33 rushing scores over his past three seasons, will get plenty of looks when Houston moves the ball into the red zone. -- Bowen

Bold prediction for 2026: Wide receiver Nico Collins will record 1,500 receiving yards. With Jayden Higgins out for the year, Collins should earn an even higher share of targets (even following the Kayshon Boutte trade). Collins is already a great receiver, perhaps in the second tier behind the true elites like Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua , Justin Jefferson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba . But I wonder if we'll be talking about Collins in that group at the end of this season. -- Walder