GM Jon-Eric Sullivan looking at tough decision if Dolphins pick No. 1

When the 2026 NFL regular season comes to a close in January, the Miami Dolphins could very well own the number one overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. According to ESPN, the odds that Miami will possess that first pick are a whopping 46% as of Saturday heading into Week 3.

While that may be the smart money to predict, what is not at this moment is which player general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan could select. Of course, he may elect to trade out and acquire a treasure chest of draft assets, but let's put a pin in that for now.

Sullivan was in attendance for the Texas and Tennessee game on Saturday at Neyland Stadium, and two Longhorns most likely had the majority of his attention. Quarterback Arch Manning and defensive end Colin Simmons are both potential top-five picks in 2027, but it may not be that simple to state.

Manning could elect to return to college, as some say he still needs a bit more time to develop. Depending on who you ask, others see him as the sure-fire top pick this coming April.

Manning and the No. 1-ranked Longhorns defeated No. 14 Tennessee 20-17, but it was Simmons who was the headliner. The pass-rusher registered a program-record five sacks, and his overall stat line was a ridiculous eight tackles (four for loss), a quarterback hit and a forced fumble. As for Manning, he threw for 201 yards and completed 14 of his 19 passes with no touchdowns and an interception.

That interception was a questionable throw, as Manning heaved the ball deep into clear double coverage. Pundits across college football and social media have varying evaluations of Manning, and at this exact time, he doesn't seem to be the consensus top selection when April rolls around.

Adding more intrigue to the debate on who Miami, or whichever team holds the 2027 No. 1 pick, should take, a generational talent at wide receiver had a monster day in Columbus, Ohio, Saturday. Jeremiah Smith had an incredible performance for the Buckeyes with a triple-crown of career highs, catching 12 balls for 217 yards and four touchdowns. Additionally, Smith became the lone Ohio State receiver to eclipse 3,000 receiving yards, a program that is known as one of the best in producing talent at the position.

Circling back to the No. 1 pick debate, in NFL Draft history, just three receivers have been the top selection. The first was in 1964 when the San Francisco 49ers selected Dave Parks; then 20 years later in 1984, the New England Patriots drafted Irving Fryar at the top spot. The last wide receiver to be selected first was Keyshawn Johnson with the New York Jets in 1996.

As for defensive ends, back in 2000, Courtney Brown kicked off the 21 st century of drafts as the No. 1 pick with the Cleveland Browns . It was the first time since 1992 that a defensive end was taken first when Steve Emtman was drafted by the Indianapolis Colts . Prior to Emtman, in 1984, a defensive end was selected first when the Buffalo Bills called Bruce Smith's name. Defensive ends at number one were a lot more common in the 60s and 70s, with names like Bubba Smith in 1967, Walt Patulski in 1972, John Matuszak in 1973, Too Tall Jones in 1974, and Lee Roy Selmon in 1976.

Back to the 2000s, following Brown, who had an underwhelming career for Cleveland in his five years there and one in Denver , just four defensive ends were the top pick since. Mario Williams in 2006, Jadeveon Clowney in 2014, Myles Garrett in 2017, and most recently Travon Walker in 2022.

Also, throughout the 2000s, there have been several busts at quarterback at No. 1. It's not a certainty the top signal-caller selected will prove to be a good investment for a team, or even remain on it. Failed picks for teams the last 25 years have included David Carr with the Houston Texans in 2002, JaMarcus Russell in 2007 with the Oakland Raiders, Sam Bradford with the St. Louis Rams in 2010, and Jameis Winston in 2015 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers .

Then you have examples of quarterbacks who did not work out with their drafted teams yet went elsewhere, such as Baker Mayfield , when the Cleveland Browns took him in 2018, as well as Jared Goff ( Los Angeles Rams in 2016 and Matthew Stafford ( Detroit Lions in 2009), being part of a trade in 2021 for each other. Alex Smith with San Francisco from 2005 is another example. He spent seven seasons with the 49ers, but became a three-time Pro Bowler with the Chiefs in his five seasons with Kansas City .

And famously, in 2004, San Diego selected Eli Manning No. 1, but he was traded to the New York Giants in a deal that netted the Chargers Philip Rivers and a trio of additional draft picks. This was a situation where the Manning family called an audible, so to speak, after the Chargers called his name. That could very well happen again to some extent with Arch, should the team that gets the No. 1 pick is, let's say, undesirable to the family.

If Miami holds that No. 1 pick, in a pivotal second year in yet another rebuild, Sullivan will have the unenviable task of needing to hit a home run with his decision. As it stands now, from a player standpoint, Smith, Collins, or Manning seem like the consensus names at the top of the list.

Yet with all the needs Miami has on both sides of the ball, Sullivan could shop the pick or receive an offer he simply can't refuse. Moving a slot down or two could still net Miami Collins or Smith, and the 2026 play of current quarterback Malik Willis could influence that option. However, Willis has not proven just yet that he is, or isn't, the franchise quarterback for this team.

Also part of the equation in a potential trade-down, moving out of the top-five could mean missing on all three. This could be a cardinal sin in passing on talent, which consistently plagued Miami's previous general managers.

While the 2026 season in both college and the pros still has a long way to go, Sullivan and the Dolphins are in a position to be at the top of the board come April. If so, it would be just the third time in franchise history that Miami will own that top pick, the last being in 2008 when they picked tackle Jake Long over quarterback Matt Ryan , who went two picks later to the Atlanta Falcons . The first time they picked at the top was in 1966, their first year in existence.

Sullivan's decision, should he be the first man to make a pick, is one that could put Miami on the fast track to consistent success. But the wrong choice could derail any chance of his regime being the infrastructure to finally turn Miami's fortunes around. An organization that is still searching for its first playoff win since the 2000 season, its first Super Bowl appearance since the 1984 season, and its first championship since its back-to-back Lombardi Trophies in 1972 and 1973.