Bleacher Report's Expert Week 5 2026 NFL Picks and Predictions

NFL Week 5 opens with a Thursday game featuring the biggest spread on the slate, followed by tighter margins on Sunday and Monday.

With a potential rebound opportunity ahead, Bleacher Report's experts broke down what could be a competitive slate.

Analysts Gary Davenport , Brad Gagnon , Kris Knox , Moe Moton , and Brent Sobleski , along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford , are coming off a week of ups and downs after a few chaotic finishes and brutal bad beats, but they're prepared for the unexpected this week.

Our lone-wolf picks are 7-5 for the season, with four more this week. Most of the panel is buying into two of the season's biggest surprise teams, backing them as road underdogs.

Moton's lead in the standings below has shrunk a bit. We'll see if the other experts continue to close the gap. Here are the breakdowns for Week 5 games.

Lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday, Oct. 7, at 4 p.m. ET. Check FanDuel for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network . ATS records are provided by Team Rankings .

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

I know the Buccaneers have no business keeping it close on a short week, in Dallas, and with an undrafted rookie at quarterback. Short-week games can be weird, though, and it's already been a strange season.

Really, this isn't as much of a mismatch on paper as it might seem. Dallas' defense is still quite bad and has struggled against both the run (31st) and the pass (24th). If Jalon Daniels can avoid turnovers and make the most of his scrambling ability, the Bucs might even make this one uncomfortably close for the Cowboys.

The Cowboys have scored more than 30 points in three straight outings, including both home games. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers haven't scored more than 20 points since Week 1, with Baker Mayfield under center. Undrafted rookie Daniels will make his second start on Thursday in place of Mayfield, who has a dislocated thumb.

Daniels threw for a touchdown and two interceptions in his debut last week. New Dallas cornerback Joey Porter Jr. will likely have a full workload in this contest, and Buccaneers All-Pro defensive back Antoine Winfield Jr. will sit out with a rib injury. This feels like a matchup for the Cowboys to flex on both sides of the ball on their way to 3-2.

Cowboys: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)

Laying this many points for a "home" game more than 4,000 miles from EverBank Stadium gives me pause. But the Jaguars are more acclimated to playing in London than any other NFL team.

Jacksonville is playing excellent complementary football—the Jags are one bad half in Denver away from being undefeated. The Eagles likely won't have Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith or Dallas Goedert, and they're already without the now-retired Lane Johnson. That gives Jacksonville a clear edge.

I expect the Jaguars to win this game. The Eagles' roster is decimated by injuries at the moment and Johnson retired on Tuesday. The Jaguars' defense has been very good and should be able to bottle up the Philadelphia rushing attack with Barkley on the shelf.

However, this is still a veteran Eagles group coming off a tough loss to the Rams. I don't think they'll do enough to win, but Jalen Hurts comes on strong in the second half and gets the backdoor cover.

Jaguars: Davenport, Knox, Moton, Sobleski

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (0-4)

I was the panel's only analyst to pick Miami to cover last week in Minnesota, but that doesn't mean I'm backing the Dolphins again.

So why have I forsaken them in Week 5? They're struggling to score. Miami is averaging just 11.5 points per game and can't count on Ollie Gordon II touchdowns every week to rescue the offense. Even a beat-up Bengals team can score 20 against the Dolphins—and I expect that to be enough to cover.

The Bengals have come back to earth the last two weeks and now go on the road with both of their top two receivers dealing with injuries. Miami's defense didn't give up a touchdown in Minnesota and should keep the team in this one at home. I also don't trust Chase Brown and the Cincinnati run game to put this game away.

Bengals: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Minnesota Vikings (4-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

I don't know if the Minnesota Vikings are actually any better with Kyler Murray at quarterback than they were with Carson Wentz. It certainly won't help that Justin Jefferson may miss his second full game with an ankle injury.

What concerns me about the Saints, though, is their inability to run the ball effectively and consistently (30th in rushing yards and YPC). This means a lot of pressure will be placed on second-year quarterback Tyler Shough. I'm a big fan of Shough, but I expect him to struggle against Brian Flores' defense.

Let's look past the fact that the Vikings' defense is only surrendering 12.75 points per game. I'm making this one all about the Saints.

It's not often a team should be "excited" to welcome a 4-0 opponent into its house, but New Orleans should be an exception this weekend. The undefeated Vikings, while deserving of their unbeaten mark, do not do anything particularly well offensively.

Since their 39-point outburst in Week 1, they're averaging just 15 points per game. The Saints were just pummeled on Monday Night Football for 205 yards and five touchdowns on the ground and are allowing 147.8 rushing yards and a league-worst 32 points per game; this game couldn't come at a better time. That cannot—it will not—happen again. Back-to-back home games cannot go to waste for a team trying to turn the corner of relevance.

The Saints need to capitalize on this matchup to show they can stay competitive.

Saints: Gagnon, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) at New England Patriots (2-2)

I don't love giving up the hook, but the Patriots appeared to figure a lot out last week and are back at home against a team they are very unlikely to overlook, given that Week 1 loss in 2025. The Raiders are a greatly improved team but are in a tough spot for a 10 a.m. body clock start.

Last week, Drake Maye had his best outing of the season, throwing for 269 yards, three touchdowns and an interception against the Buffalo Bills' 27th-ranked pass defense. He'll face a stingier Las Vegas Raiders defense that hasn't allowed more than 233 yards through the air and ranks eighth in passing yards allowed per game.

New England has turned the ball over twice in every game so far this season, and Las Vegas leads the league with nine takeaways. The Raiders' aggressive, opportunistic defense won't let this game get too far away from them on the scoreboard. They cover with a good chance to win outright.

Raiders: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski

Cleveland Browns (3-1) at New York Jets (1-3)

Is it time to actually believe in the Browns? It is when they're facing the Jets. With or without Mason Graham in the lineup, the Browns field a swarming and opportunistic defense.

Conversely, the Jets have struggled to finish drives and failed to move the ball last weekend against the Chicago Bears. Deshaun Watson and Co. can give the Browns enough offensively to not only cover the spread but win outright.

It's not a typo: the Cleveland Browns are 3-1. I'm actually astonished there is a favored team in this game at all. The Jets are coming off a performance in which Chicago Bears running back Kyle Monangai had 31 touches (30 carries, 1 reception) and the Jets offense ran 32 plays total.

Again, not a typo: Monangai had just one fewer touch than the Jets' offense ran plays all game. Other than home-field advantage, I see little reason to favor New York. Then again, Cleveland's surprising 3-1 record doesn't make the Browns an obvious choice either. Neither side inspires much confidence, but I'll give the Jets the edge at home and lay the points.

Browns: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)

The Colts are coming off a game in London and now have to go on the road to face a Steelers team that has had a few extra days of rest.

The Indianapolis defense ranks 31st in the league in yards allowed per game, giving Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers an opportunity to exploit a struggling unit.

I expect Pittsburgh to bounce back from its Thursday night loss, with Rodgers delivering a solid performance to secure the win.

The Colts may be on a two-game winning streak, but the rest of B/R's analysts are picking the Steelers. Logically, Pittsburgh should be favored thanks to extra prep time after a Thursday night game, and Indianapolis played in London last weekend.

However, Jonathan Taylor can take over against a Steelers defense that's middle of the pack against the run. Plus, Pittsburgh will be without defensive lineman Derrick Harmon and cornerback Jamel Dean.

Steelers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Houston Texans (0-4) at Tennessee Titans (0-4)

The Texans and Titans are both sitting at 0-4, though it feels like Houston is closer to turning things around because we've seen it happen before—the Texans started last season 0-3 and made the playoffs.

To be fair, I do believe that Houston is the better team and its pass rush can make life miserable for second-year quarterback Cam Ward. However, I believe that the regression of Houston's defense is real and that this is a large margin for an AFC South road contest.

The Texans have won their last five games in Tennessee, but their average margin of victory is just 5.8 points, and two of the last three were decided by only a field goal.

Something has to give when two winless teams face one another. It's more likely to happen with the Texans than the Titans, especially with the way Will Anderson Jr. can heat up Tennessee quarterback Cam Ward. Last year's No. 1 overall draft pick hasn't been sacked a lot thanks to his mobility, but, outside of right tackle JC Latham, Tennessee's offensive line has not played well.

Texans: Davenport, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

New York Giants (3-1) at Washington Commanders (1-3)

Washington Commanders backup quarterback Marcus Mariota suffered an MCL injury in London last week. But according to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo , starting signal-caller Jayden Daniels is "on track" to return from a dislocated elbow.

If Daniels is back on the field, this is an even matchup, and the Commanders have the hook against the spread and home-field advantage. Regardless of what Washington does, Jameis Winston will keep both teams in the game with touchdown passes and interceptions. Take the points in a go-either-way contest.

Daniels may or may not play in Week 5. It seems he's trending in the right direction, but at the time of writing, it's still up in the air.

He is 3-0 in his career against the Giants, but this is a different Giants team—not because they're shockingly 3-1 despite the absence of Jaxson Dart for all but a few quarters of the year, but because they're playing football with purpose and heart.

The Big Blue offense will rise and fall with Jameis Winston (a.k.a. The Jameis Winston Experience), but it's the defense, even without Brian Burns, that will be the deciding factor. The Giants have seen enough of Daniels, should he play, to be ready for what he brings, and New York is riding a wave of momentum it hasn't had since Brian Daboll's first season as head coach in 2022, the last time they opened a season 3-1.

A field goal with a hook on the road against a division rival is a dicey play, but these are dice worth rolling.

Commanders: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski

Chicago Bears (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)

Chicago Bears backup quarterback Tyson Bagent will make his second consecutive start in place of Caleb Williams, who's recovering from a hamstring injury, which may sway you toward the home-dog Green Bay Packers.

That said, the Packers have one of the league's worst run defenses, giving up the fifth-most yards and seven rushing scores.

Two weeks ago, Atlanta Falcons running backs Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. ran for 244 yards and three touchdowns against Green Bay. The Bears can do the same with the No. 1 rushing attack, featuring D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai if he's available to play with a thumb injury.

The Bears broke their curse at Lambeau Field in January 2025, snapping an eight-game road losing streak against the Packers. However, Chicago lost on its next visit in December 2025 and is 3-14 straight up against Green Bay at Lambeau since 2010.

The teams appear to be on opposite ends of the spectrum right now, health of Bears QB Caleb Williams aside, with the Bears ascending and the Packers descending, but I'm not passing up the opportunity to back a home team that historically dominates its opponent.

This is the first time since 2006 that the Packers are home 'dogs against Chicago. Even if the Bears pull out a win, I don't think it'll be by more than two points.

Denver Broncos (2-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-4)

The Broncos have been erratic this season, and their slow starts haven't helped. But the Chargers have struggled even more. Justin Herbert has had little protection or consistent help from his receiving corps, and the passing game has lacked rhythm.

Offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel's backfield rotation has left the Chargers' running game looking like a Dungeons & Dragons hydra: plenty of heads, little direction. The Chargers are a mess. Lay the points.

With all of their talent, it's hard to imagine the Chargers starting 0-5. But if they do, I think they will at least put up a fight in a desperate home game against a familiar, banged-up opponent. The hook has me on Los Angeles, along with the fact that Denver is 0-2 with a minus-31 scoring margin on the road this season.

Broncos: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski

San Francisco 49ers (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

It's fitting that this game is being played in October, because the San Francisco 49ers are the NFL equivalent of Freddy Krueger: They just won't go away. Despite a growing injury list, the Niners keep finding ways to compete.

Landing Brock Purdy with the final pick in the 2022 draft gave San Francisco a remarkable second chance after the Trey Lance gamble failed to pay off. Now, Purdy is making his case in the MVP conversation. The Niners go to Seattle and win outright. One, two, Freddy's for you…

Eventually, the 49ers' injuries, specifically at wide receiver, will catch up to them. Playing through a rib injury, Mike Evans caught five passes for 76 yards last week, but the Denver Broncos lost starting cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss for the second half.

Seattle will be better equipped to limit Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle with their No. 1 pass defense. Last year, Brock Purdy threw for two touchdowns and four interceptions in three games against the Seahawks. So his streak of stellar play could end with a loss by more than a field goal on Sunday.

49ers: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Detroit Lions (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-3)

I hate picking against the Cardinals when the spread is even remotely high because Jacoby Brissett always seems to find a way to make things uncomfortable. However, in a game where I don't expect either team to be stopping much of anything, give me the team with more star power on offense to eventually pull away.

I'm expecting this game to be a shootout. Take the over as Jared Goff and the Lions get a much-needed win on the road.

Since Brissett took over as the Cardinals' QB1, Arizona has been able to do one thing very well: Throw the football, particularly late in games when the team is trailing.

Detroit's defense ranks last in the league and is the only unit allowing more than 400 total yards per game.

Brissett will sling it and rack up yards, which will likely keep Arizona close enough to cover the spread or even win.

Cardinals: Davenport, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

It looks like we largely believe in the Falcons on Sunday, which likely stems from the fact that A) Lamar Jackson is dealing with an ankle sprain, and B) prime-time Bijan Robinson is a very real thing.

Baltimore's defense has shown tangible growth under new head coach Jesse Minter. However, I worry about its ability to hold up against Atlanta's two-headed rushing attack and the occasional over-the-top shots to Drake London. The Ravens will likely struggle to keep pace if they don't have Jackson at 100 percent.

That said, Baltimore does have a path to victory without Jackson. His name is Derrick Henry, and he could be more than enough if the Ravens force the still-inexperienced Michael Penix Jr. (14 starts) into costly mistakes.

Another prime-time game for the Runnin' Robinsons? Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. hit paydirt five times in their last outing. Going back a week before, the duo has scored eight touchdowns in the last two weeks, both nationally televised prime-time games.

The prime-time aspect probably means nothing in reality, but the Falcons have clearly figured out some things offensively, even if Penix is far from a complete or dominant QB. Jackson is questionable, at the time of writing, for the Ravens. That potential reality, plus the way Atlanta is playing right now, is more than enough to justify taking the home 'dogs here.

I'll be on the moneyline (and with both Robinsons scoring touchdowns), too.

Falcons: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2)

This feels like a bounce-back spot in prime time for a Bills team that has too much talent to lay another egg. The Rams have turned the ball over twice in every game they've played, and I expect Jim Leonhard's defense to capitalize on that trend with Greg Rousseau and Bradley Chubb.

This is arguably the game of the week, and it should be a high-scoring affair. The Bills suffered a predictable loss to the Patriots last week and could be without DJ Moore for this one. The Rams got a needed win over the Eagles after rallying in the second half.

I think the Rams ultimately make enough plays defensively to sneak out a win at home here, but this is a three-point game no matter who takes home the victory.

Bills: Davenport, Gagnon, O'Donnell, Sobleski