NFL QB pressure index 2026: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert among QBs with most to prove

Being an NFL quarterback means constant pressure to succeed.

Every game, from Week 1 onward, will be used as data by fans to measure how good a passer and their team is. With a few bad outings, injury issues, or a failure to live up to high expectations, in the blink of an eye, a starter may become a backup — there are only 32 QB1 spots to go around.

A case can be made that every NFL quarterback has some kind of pressure to succeed in the 2026 season. Even Sam Darnold, fresh off a Super Bowl victory, may be out to prove his 2025 was no fluke. But some quarterbacks have more riding on the upcoming season than others.

Here's a ranking of the nine quarterbacks facing the most pressure to succeed in 2026.

Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Josh Allen turned 30 years old in May. He's tracking to be one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time, one of the biggest stars of his era and should have plenty more elite years left in the tank. However, with every year he doesn't reach a Super Bowl, the Bills have more questions to answer — and it already reached a tipping point this offseason.

Sean McDermott, the only coach Allen had ever played for in Buffalo, was fired after yet another heartbreaking playoff loss, the seventh consecutive season in which the Bills made the playoffs with at least 10 wins but failed to reach the Super Bowl. And this time, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs weren't even to blame.

Even with Kansas City taking a step back in 2025, Buffalo couldn't emerge from the AFC. Yet, at this point, there's still almost an expectation that come every January, the Bills will be in the playoffs thanks to Allen's talents.

Here's their regular season record and playoff result in every season since Allen took over in 2018:

2019: 10-6 (lost to Texans in wild card)

2020: 13-3 (lost to Chiefs in AFC Championship)

2021: 11-6 (lost to Chiefs in divisional round)

2022: 13-3 (lost to Bengals in divisional round)

2023: 11-6 (lost to Chiefs in divisional round)

2024: 13-4 (lost to Chiefs in AFC Championship)

2025: 12-5 (lost to Broncos in divisional round)

The Bills have lived and died by Allen's performances for years, whether that's fair or not. It's the way their offense is designed and how they have won so many games. With Joe Brady taking over as head coach, there may not be anybody else to blame if the Bills can't make a Super Bowl push in 2026.

There's no chance the Bills move on from Allen next offseason, even in a worst-case scenario, but he's only going to be a Super Bowl-level quarterback for so long. With every missed opportunity in Buffalo, Allen's career trajectory looks more like Dan Marino.

Put Joe Burrow in the same category as Allen. They're both veteran star quarterbacks who have consistently come up short of a ring, primarily because of Mahomes' Chiefs, who also failed to step up in the AFC last year despite Kansas City's struggles. There are two key differences with Burrow: he has been to a Super Bowl, and he's set to hit free agency a year before Allen, in 2030.

That year of difference in contract length — especially with Cincinnati missing the playoffs in three straight years — means the results of 2026 could wind up dictating Burrow's long-term future with the team. Partly due to his injury issues, the Bengals haven't been an AFC contender since their 2022 loss to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

Here's how the Bengals have performed since Burrow took over as quarterback in 2020:

2022: 12-4 (lost to Chiefs in AFC Championship Game)

For a quarterback of Burrow's caliber, four missed playoffs in six years won't cut it. With every disappointment in Cincinnati, pressure mounts on them to succeed before there's a threat of Burrow departing while still in his prime.

It's not yet a realistic threat to consider the Bengals needing to move on from Burrow. But if you picture the end of the 2026 season, if the team misses the playoffs again, that may become a question it has to answer sooner than expected. That also puts pressure on Burrow to not just stay healthy, but prove he's still capable of the heights he's reached in 2021 and 2022.

Through three NFL seasons, C.J. Stroud's best was his first, when he threw for over 4,000 yards and 23 touchdowns as he became a star for the Texans . Since then, he simply has not been great enough for Houston's offense to be a Super Bowl threat.

By now, it's clear that the Texans have the defensive talent to contend for a title; that side of the ball was the backbone of their 12-win season in 2025. If Stroud can distribute the ball at the elite rate he was in 2023, there's a chance that the Texans make national noise.

The Texans are a good team with Stroud leading the way. That much is clear. The question is whether they can be a great team, something that can only happen with the best version of their quarterback.

There's also an intriguing contract angle to Stroud's 2026 season — he has yet to come to terms on a rookie extension with Houston, carrying a club option for 2027 before 2028 free agency. With a bad season for the Texans, perhaps they're unwilling to sign Stroud to a contract that compares to his peers.

If Stroud can't uplift Houston's offense this season, he's another big name whose future could be up in the air.

There may be no more obvious quarterback facing pressure in their career this NFL season than Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins accepted a record-setting $99.2 million total dead cap just to release him this offseason, which isn't exactly a vote of confidence in his abilities. Add in his concussion/injury history and a preseason competition with Michael Penix Jr., and Tagovailoa has had a bit of a fall from grace.

Even with Penix not playing throughout training camp, Atlanta has been unwilling to name Tagovailoa as its starter. Just two seasons ago, he led the NFL in passing yards. But already, with one more rough stretch, Tagovailoa could be staring down becoming a rest-of-career backup.

In the best-case scenario, Tagovailoa can maximize the Falcons ' offensive weapons and Kevin Stefanski's play calling, holding onto the starting quarterback job and setting himself for a longer-term deal next offseason. Anything other than that, though, will make his NFL future far murkier.

Any quarterback who needs a competition to win the starting job faces pressure. But Tagovailoa's injury history and historic release from the Dolphins make him even more of a make-or-break candidate for 2026.

To this point, the Buccaneers have been unable to come to an extension agreement with Baker Mayfield, who has led the team since 2023. His time in Tampa Bay has included two playoff trips but just one 10-plus-win season, and while Mayfield has put up strong numbers, the Buccaneers have been unable to become a true NFC threat.

Tampa Bay seems to have a high floor every year, with the offensive talent to compete with virtually any opponent. But the team needs Mayfield at his best to contend for the NFC South title, and as he enters Year 9 of his up-and-down career, the quarterback hasn't proven he can go on a deep playoff run.

Mayfield's contract situation is perhaps the most intriguing of any NFL starting quarterback. If he can't lead the Buccaneers to the playoffs this fall, he may be on a new team in 2027.

Another AFC quarterback who hasn't been able to overcome Mahomes' shadow? Justin Herbert. The Chargers QB has regularly made his club good — like Stroud or Mayfield with their teams — but it's still unclear if he can lead a team to the promised land.

Herbert typically doesn't receive much blame for the Chargers' inability to break through, because for the most part, he's been consistently great despite issues surrounding him, whether on the offensive line or defensively. But at some point, the NFL is always about quarterback play.

Regardless of an injury to center Tyler Biadasz, there's a clear path for the Chargers to be the AFC West's best team in 2026. Unlike counterparts like Allen or Burrow, however, Herbert hasn't been able to lead L.A. even past the wild-card round. If that happens again, it could lead to more significant changes for the franchise, even if Herbert is around for the long-term.

The final AFC quarterback on this list, Lamar Jackson, is one who has individually dominated every NFL season, but also hasn't put it all together for a Super Bowl run.

There are no longer any questions about Jackson's capabilities as a passer, and we've known for years he can run with the best offensive weapons in the NFL. But with one conference championship appearance to Jackson's name and a missed playoff trip in 2025, John Harbaugh was let go, shifting some of the focus to the Ravens ' star quarterback to prove that was the right decision.

The reason Jackson ranks lower than Allen or Burrow here, however, is partially due to the fact that Jackson can't be fully blamed for Baltimore's 2025 struggles, throwing for 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions. There's a clear overall trend of his individual excellence every year despite the team coming up short.

The pressure in Baltimore for 2026 is more on Jessie Minter and the Ravens' defense than Jackson and the offense. But as noted with other quarterbacks, at the end of the day, the players at that position are expected to lead their team regardless of circumstances. Jackson still hasn't reached the biggest stage in football despite his electric play.

Another Eagles season, another new playcaller for Jalen Hurts. With a Super Bowl ring to his name, Hurts deserves more leeway than most NFL quarterbacks, but with Philadelphia's offense struggling in 2025, he needs to prove that was due to the playcalling and not his limitations on the field.

Everywhere Hurts has gone, he's been a winner. He hasn't missed the playoffs yet as an NFL starter. But merely making the dance is no longer the expectation for Hurts — once he proved he could lead Philadelphia to the Super Bowl, Eagles fans' appetites changed. Anything but NFC East crowns and deep playoff runs is considered a disappointment, which is a high, but fair bar to set.

Hurts' 2025 numbers (11-5 record, 25 touchdowns, six interceptions) don't indicate he needs much of a bounce-back season, but there needs to be offensive improvement in Philadelphia with Sean Marrion at offensive coordinator and A.J. Brown gone. If Hurts can't answer the doubters this time, with just two years remaining on his deal after 2026, his future in the City of Brotherly Love could look a bit different.

John Jones - IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Rounding out the list is a quarterback in a very similar situation to Tagovailoa, but with a better track record and system around him: Kyler Murray. The Cardinals made the expensive decision to let him go this offseason, and while Murray has flashed plenty of elite arm talent and dual-threat capabilities, it hasn't led to any kind of team success in the NFL.

Murray, hypothetically, now has everything he needs to succeed: an offensive-minded head coach, some elite weapons around him, a QB1 job and a winning culture in Minnesota. It's clear that he has the talent to succeed, but his motivation has been called into question. In a contract year, those are questions that need to be answered.

Murray is playing on a one-year deal with the Vikings, making this a make-or-break year for him. His talent would still likely give him more future opportunities, but no team is going to be willing to sign him to a significant contract in free agency next spring if he can't keep Minnesota competitive.