NFL urges Supreme Court to let states regulate prediction markets

The NFL filed an amicus brief urging the Supreme Court to affirm that states have the authority to regulate sports prediction market contracts as gambling, joining an ongoing legal fight between New Jersey regulators and prediction market platform Kalshi.

According to CNBC, the brief contends that sports prediction contracts amount to gambling rather than financial swaps that Congress assigned exclusively to federal oversight through the CFTC — a characterization Kalshi has long disputed in its own court filings. "It is well established, however, that regulating gambling is among states' sovereign police powers," the brief states. "What constitutional power allows Congress to override states' traditional police powers to regulate intrastate gambling?"

The league cited the scale of prediction market activity tied to football, saying the sport accounted for $1.8 billion in trading on the first Sunday of the season — more than half of total platform volume that day, according to CNBC. The NFL said it is not opposed to prediction markets in principle but believes state regulators are better positioned than the CFTC to oversee them given the agency's resource constraints.

The NFL flagged a set of contract categories it views as particularly open to exploitation — among them wagers on field goals, fumbles, injuries, and officiating calls, all situations in which someone with privileged access to team information could turn an unfair advantage into profit. The league has pushed prediction platforms to eliminate those contract types entirely and to align their minimum user age with the 21-year threshold that most state sports-betting frameworks require. On Kalshi, users can be as young as 18. "Neither the CFTC nor the prediction market companies themselves — despite our persistent urging — have banned categories of bets susceptible to manipulation or set a 21 age limit," the NFL said in a statement to CNBC.

The case arrives at the Supreme Court as federal appeals courts have issued conflicting rulings on the central legal question. The Ninth Circuit ruled in August that states can enforce gambling laws against sports prediction market platforms , finding that Kalshi's sports event contracts constitute sports betting rather than federally regulated swaps. That decision created a direct conflict with a Third Circuit ruling that sided with prediction market platforms in blocking New Jersey's attempt to apply state gaming laws against them — the kind of circuit split that draws Supreme Court scrutiny.

The NFL has kept prediction platforms off its airwaves and has declined to enter into any commercial partnerships with them. Commissioner Roger Goodell said in September that the league is prepared to wait for stronger protections. "We don't feel like we have to be the first in this. We feel like we're going to be right, and the best thing to do is be patient," Goodell told CNBC. Rival leagues have moved in a different direction: the NHL has aligned with both Kalshi and Polymarket, while MLB, Major League Soccer, and UFC have each struck deals with Polymarket.