NFL odds, betting, storylines: 2 underdogs to back in Week 9

If the NFL betting community handed out a first-half MVP award, there is no question who this year's runaway winner would be: big NFL underdogs.

Through eight weeks, seven teams have taken the field as double-digit underdogs. Five of them covered the spread.

So far, we have seen 37 underdogs of six points or more (including those seven double-digit pups). Their ATS record: 24-10-3 ATS.

This includes a 6-2 ATS mark posted by the largest underdog of the week. In fact, the biggest underdog has covered the spread each of the last five weeks and recorded three outright upsets.

All of which brings me to my trio of NFL underdog best bets for Week 9. Spoiler alert: I expect big 'dogs to continue barking.

After an uneven 2-2 start to the season — a start that included a frantic overtime home win against the Saints, blowout road losses to the Bills and Panthers, and zero covers — the Lions have turned things around.

The bounce-back began with a 45-21 thumping of the Cardinals in Arizona. Detroit then followed its bye with consecutive divisional home wins over Green Bay and Minnesota. Those wins, however, were hardly convincing. The Lions needed a last-second field goal to upend the Packers 20-17 and a late-game touchdown and defensive stop to hold off Minnesota 19-15.

So seven games into the 2026 season, Detroit has defeated just two opponents by more than four points: Arizona and the New York Jets (who lost 31-24 in Motown in Week 3). The Lions also enter Week 8 having covered only two point spreads.

Now they head to South Beach in what is a classic letdown/sandwich spot.

The letdown part: Detroit just barely beat two NFC North rivals in tense, down-to-the-wire games (both of which were at home). Now with their confidence sky high, the Lions hop on a plane to face one-win Miami.

The sandwich part: Detroit next week kicks off a three-game homestand against New England. So this is the team's only road trip over a six-game stretch.

My point is that this is a tricky situation for the Lions. Which means it's an advantageous one for the Dolphins, who have been much more competitive over the past month.

Since opening with double-digit losses to the Raiders, 49ers and Chiefs by the combined score of 86-36, Miami has upset the Jets 28-25 on the road and held its own against the Vikings (15-10 road loss as a 10-point underdog), Bengals (31-24 home loss as a 7-point underdog) and Patriots (24-19 home loss as a 7-point underdog).

Yep, Miami comes into this contest on a 3-0-1 ATS run. And while the defense has admittedly struggled most of the season, the offense has picked it up recently. Since tallying 13, 13, 10 and 10 points in their first four games, the Dolphins averaged 23.7 points in the last three.

If the offense can exceed that average Sunday by a tiny bit — against a Detroit defense that I'm not convinced is fixed — Miami will get inside this big number.

Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) at Washington Commanders

In Week 1, the Commanders traveled to Philadelphia as 6-point underdogs. They lost 24-22.

Two weeks later, with injured starting quarterback Jayden Daniels on the sidelines, the Commanders hosted defending champion Seattle as 8.5-point underdogs. They won 33-31.

Fast-forward to Week 6, and Washington traveled to San Francisco as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday Night Football. The 49ers won — but only by six points (23-17).

Those were the three biggest point spreads the Commanders have faced as an underdog this season. And they covered them all. Now they're catching a bunch of points against the visiting Rams, who have looked much better the last two weeks, thumping the Raiders and Chargers by the combined score of 59-30.

But let's not forget that this same Rams squad preceded those two wins with an 18-16 loss to Arizona as a 12.5-point home favorite. Before that, L.A. suffered an overtime home loss to Buffalo; needed a furious late fourth-quarter rally to win at Philadelphia; and blew a 16-0 halftime lead in a 30-26 loss at Denver.

Back to Washington: True, it got crushed 37-20 at Dallas as a 4.5-point underdog in Week 2. But it lost Daniels to an elbow injury right before halftime.

The Commanders also fell 30-13 to the Colts in London as 5-point underdogs in Week 4. But seventh-round rookie quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis played the majority of that game after backup Marcus Mariota went down early.

Daniels finally returned the following week, which was the now-infamous 27-27 tie against the Giants (who are 4-2-1). Then came the competitive loss at then-unbeaten San Francisco, followed by an off week, followed by last Sunday's 27-10 rout of the Eagles.

Bottom line: The Commanders have been blasted only twice this season — once with their backup QB playing the second half and once with their third-string rookie QB playing the majority of the game. Assuming Daniels can stay on the field for 60 minutes Sunday, I like Washington's chances to hang with a West Coast team traveling across the country to play in the early window.

By the way, the Rams' 14-point victory at Las Vegas two weeks ago? It's the only time they've won by more than four points in their last eight games outside of Los Angeles.