AFC South 2026 Predictions: Can the Texans Run Away With the Division?

The AFC South is usually one of the more hectic divisions in football, making it nearly impossible to predict who will win. That trend should continue in 2026, with all of these teams looking to take the crown, each with a legitimate reason.

Looking at it on paper, there's a clear frontrunner, though, who should be one of the best teams in the entire AFC. Here are my predictions for the AFC South in 2026.

Houston, we have a problem. This defense is about to terrorize the NFL. The Houston Texans defense was one of the best last season and proved it in the playoffs against New England. The issue was the offense, but the scary part is this defense got even better. One aspect that could've improved from last season was the interior of the defensive line, and Houston addressed that by drafting Kayden McDonald in the second round. 6-foot-3 and 326 pounds of pure run-stuffing power is what McDonald brings to this defense.

Outside of interior rushing defense, edge rush and secondary depth were two other areas Houston addressed. Well, general manager Nick Caserio is on top of it by signing Jadeveon Clowney and drafting Kamari Ramsey . This unit, led by Matt Burke, will be lights-out and a big reason the Texans have a high floor.

Now, the offense. It's been the talking point all offseason long, due to CJ Stroud's performance in the playoffs. If this unit can be a top-15 offense, Houston should run away with this division. Stroud gets a ton of blame thrown at him, but the rushing game was horrendous last season. No other way to put it. This offseason, Houston made sure to raise the floor of its rushing game by adding David Montgomery , Keylan Rutledge , Wyatt Teller, and Braden Smith . Those additions should help plenty. Expect this Texans team to get off to a hot start and take the NFL by storm.

It doesn't make up for it, but I do feel low on the Indianapolis Colts and could see them playing even better than this. The injury to Daniel Jones is concerning, but from everything coming out of training camp, he looks healthy. Despite the losses of Michael Pittman Jr. , Kwity Paye , and Nick Cross , this is a Colts roster still loaded with talent.

The team clearly trusts receiver Alec Pierce after giving him a four-year, $114 million contract this offseason. He and Josh Downs will enter Year 2 with Jones, so expect them to look even better. Not to mention, Shane Steichen is one of the best play-callers in the NFL. He still has his main weapons in Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren ; this is an underrated offense that can steal some tough games throughout the schedule.

Looking at the defense, the main holes were the linebacker corps. General manager Chris Ballard signed Akeem Davis-Gather and drafted CJ Allen in the 2026 NFL Draft. The starting 11 on the defensive end can be one of the best units in the NFL, but the depth behind it is lacking. The edge room had some standouts in the preseason, but how much can the Colts really rely on Caden Curry and Michael Clemons if they had to play starting reps? That's the one aspect of this team that worries me, which is a big part of why I don't see them winning double-digit games in 2026.

It just hurts to have the Jacksonville Jaguars under .500 next year, 'cause I like this team. The Jaguars' offense was one of the best units in the back half of the 2025 season, and I expect that to continue in 2026. Head coach Liam Coen and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile both excel at their roles. Each has the talent on both sides of the ball to have top-10 units, so why are the Jaguars under .500?

Well, when it came down to it, and it was time to pick games, it became hard to give them wins. Road games in Denver, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, and Dallas. As much as I like this Jaguars team, it's hard for me to give them wins against a lot of these other teams. Not to mention they host teams like New England, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.

It's just the reality sometimes within the NFL and predictions. The roster is there despite the questionable draft class, but I just don't see the Jaguars having the same success as last season. This prediction could look silly in a couple of months when Trevor Lawrence is playing lights out, and I'll just have to accept it then.

The Tennessee Titans have gotten way too much hype this offseason. Yes, the hiring of Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll was excellent. But truly look at this roster and ask yourself if they're ready to be a contender, even in their own division. The receiving core got major upgrades with Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson , which raises the floor of this offense, especially under Daboll. The one issue is the offensive line: I'm not fully sold on left tackle Dan Moore Jr. being consistently good, and the interior line, other than Peter Skoronski .

Defensively, much of it will fall on Saleh's shoulders to get this unit operating at an elite level. Edge rusher is still a big question, and the question is who will step up. There are a lot of names in the room, such as Jacob Martin , Jermaine Johnson II , Keldric Faulk, and Femi Oladejo . Who's going to be that guy on third down? That question still needs to be answered. The secondary as well just doesn't seem to have a high ceiling. The players are good enough to operate within this Saleh team, but is it playoff caliber? No, it's not.

Tennessee is moving in the right direction, and Cam Ward should take a jump in his second year with Daboll. But they still have work to do, and having games against the AFC South, Dallas, Baltimore, and Philadelphia doesn't help.