These Are The NFL Betting Trends To Note After Wild Week 1

What a crazy start to the NFL season. The two New York teams won. The two Los Angeles teams lost. The entire NFC South is winless. A lot of points were scored. There's a lot to unpack. A friend of mine, a guy who really knows football, made a great point while I was reeling from the drubbing my picks were getting. He said that you can spot trends in college and ride a good and/or bad team predictable and make someone money. The NFL is totally random, every week is an independent event.

Thanks buddy, my wallet appreciates the (late) observation. But the season is a marathon not a sprint, the idea is to make some money over the long haul. Here are the biggest lessons I learned from Week 1.

1. Bad is now good, until it's bad again

The New York Giants made a case as the most impressive team this week. John Harbaugh whipped this outfit into shape quickly. They were efficient and in control of Dallas on both sides of the ball. This isn't your big brother's Giants.

In bigger news, the New York Jets looked competent and confident on Sunday. Geno Smith looked like the quarterback who resurrected his career in Seattle a few years back.

Arizona dominated the Chargers . Is this the new NFL or some sort of parallel universe? More than likely these teams will regress to expectations, the Giants a possible exception (they really looked good). For now though, optimism prevails. Playoff odds: Giants +160 Jets +400 Cardinals +1300

2. The Chiefs are back and better than ever.

This may not be an overreaction after all. Patrick Mahomes returned from injury and hasn't missed a beat. Travis Kelce , at least for one week, found the fountain of youth. Kenneth Walker III may be the acquisition of the year. The Chiefs toyed with the highly regarded Denver defense. They will win this division in a walk of this keeps up. Just when Josh Allen was ready to make a Super Bowl run, it turns out the king isn't dead. Credit Andy Reid also. He may still be the best head coach in the league.

Super Bowl odds: +1400. I'm jumping on that.

3. Defense around the league is now optional.

Normally early in the year, and by that I mean training camp, defenses are usually ahead of the offenses. Judging by week one, defensive coordinators haven't earned their paycheck. In part I blame the new approach around the league to basically do nothing with the three preseason games other than evaluate your second and third teamers. Starters don't play anymore. Practices are not in pads. Offenses develop little if any rhythm and chemistry. Chicago scored 59 points. Baltimore tallied 41. Minnesota went nuts and scored 22 in the blink of an eye in the fourth quarter. Dallas and Los Angeles no showed on the defensive side. Houston got shredded by Josh Allen. Defense wins championships? I'll believe it if I see a defense this year. To be fair Seattle and San Francisco played well on that side of the ball. Everyone else, not so much.

Betting play: start considering the over.

4. A forward pass can go backwards and still be a forward pass.

I consider myself pretty learned on the rules of the game. I'm usually the one explaining why this was a penalty, why that was allowed, etc. I got thrown for a loop watching Detroit and New Orleans . For those who didn't see it, Chase Young hit Jared Goff in the back as Goff was winding up to throw. The ball went backwards and the Saints got a scoop and score. Cue video review and it was overturned. The explanation still baffles me. Apparently as long as a quarterback intends to throw the ball, it doesn't matter one bit where the ball goes.

Like I said I understand the ins and outs of the rules and understood the explanation. I just don't agree with it. The NFL rules committee needs to revisit this. Intent is becoming a dirty word. Almost every sane football person I've listened to agreed that it was a fumble. The NFL says no. There's a disconnect here.

Odds of a rule change; -10000. The NFL is the old man in the family resistant to change.

5. A record number of coaches will get fired during the season.

The hotseat has been activated early. Some teams looked horrible, ill-prepared and generally bad. First year coaches may not be immune either. In no particular degree of hotness, Tennessee , Tampa Bay , Miami , Dallas and Atlanta could see changes early. Expectations are high in a couple of those places and underwhelming isn't the word to describe what Dallas and Tampa Bay produced on Sunday. Jim Harbaugh may find his seat warm if he doesn't turn things around in Los Angeles soon. Green Bay collapsed late against Minnesota. Matt Lafleur's collar may get a little tight. The NFC North is going to be competitive and Green Bay was expected to be in the mix. The coaching watch is already interesting.

Over/under on mid season firings: five. I'd put it at +200. It could be a bloodbath.

Favorites covered the spread for the most part this week. The over/under proved profitable to those who played the over. Keep that in mind week two.