Ranking the NFL's 10 Most Clutch Quarterbacks With Games On the Line Entering 2026

You hear the phrase being thrown around constantly, but it's rarely quantified. On the brink of the 2026 NFL season, let's separate narrative from reality by digging into the hard evidence.

By examining advanced play stats from Pro Football Reference dating back to 2020—while factoring in the eye test and high-stakes playoff pedigree—here are the NFL's top 10 most clutch quarterbacks right now.

Unfortunately he wasn't a major factor as a sophomore in 2025, but the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year has still compiled a 109.8 passer rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games early in his career. And that was actually elevated to 117.5 in the 2024 playoffs.

The newly crowned champion has a 110.2 passer rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games in his last two seasons with Minnesota and Seattle. He had some epic late-game performances in victories over the Bears and 49ers in 2024. The overall sample is still pretty limited, though.

The three-time Pro Bowler has a 104.2 third-down passer rating in the second half of one-score games since 2023. And in the fourth quarter of one-score games during that span, he's rushed for 34 first downs (ranking second among all NFL players). The problem? He has a league-high nine interceptions under those circumstances the last three years.

In that same time frame as Hurts, Mayfield has a 115.7 rating on second-half third-down passes in one-score games. Only Lamar Jackson tops that among guys with at least 30 passes. But 2023 (157.9!) is doing most of the work there.

He's just one year in, but the promising 26-year-old posted a 128.6 rating on third-down passes thrown in the second half of one-score games as a rookie in 2025 (ranking third among qualified passers).

This may seem odd considering his broad struggles three years in, but Young has actually led an NFL-high 12 game-winning drives since coming into the league in 2023.

Part of that comes from the fact that the Panthers rarely blow teams out, but his 99.8 third-down passer rating in the second half of one-score games since 2024 indicates a significant clutch factor with the 25-year-old.

Imagine where he could go with more support in key moments in the future.

Purdy posted a ridiculous 132.7 third-down passer rating in the second half of one-score games in 2025, and that mark is 121.0 dating back two full seasons.

He has a 106.5 rating in the fourth quarter of one-score playoff games since 2022, and has led four playoff game-winning drives in his first four seasons in the league.

Particularly memorable were his his calm comeback performances in back-to-back playoff victories over the Packers and Lions in 2023.

The only thing holding Purdy back in this regard is his occasional mistake-prone nature in key late-game regular-season scenarios.

Love has led a tied-for-league-high eight fourth-quarter comebacks since 2023, and he was behind four game-winning drives in 2025.

Like Young, he's backed that up personally with a 116.7 third-down passer rating in the second half of one-score games in 2025 (and 110.6 the last two seasons).

On top of that, per Sharp Football Analysis , Love's 2025 EPA per dropback (+0.31) when trailing in the second half ranked second only to Matthew Stafford.

Two years into his career, Nix has already led 10 game-winning drives (a league-high seven of which came in 2025).

The 2024 first-round pick also posted a 107.3 passer rating in one-score games in the 2025 playoffs, and his EPA per dropback (+0.28) when trailing in the second half ranked third to only Stafford and Love in the regular season.

Nix made his mark converting three critical third downs in a fourth-quarter drive when he nearly toppled the juggernaut Chiefs as a rookie in 2024, and he delivered when needed in an overtime playoff win over the Bills this past January.

Williams flourished while leading a league-high six fourth-quarter comebacks in 2025, bringing his total to an NFC-best eight in two years since entering the league. He led six game-winning drives in the process this season, and posted a phenomenal 130.9 passer rating on third-down throws in the second half of one-score games.

Recently, he orchestrated an unforgettable second-half comeback to help the Bears earn a critical overtime win over the division-rival Packers in a big December matchup.

You get the feeling that's just the tip of the iceberg for the former No. 1 overall pick in Ben Johnson's offense. That said, we need to see more before moving him into the top five.

The 2025 campaign wasn't pleasant for Jackson, but he still managed to post a fantastic 119.1 passer rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games—throwing zero picks on 45 attempts in those scenarios.

In a larger yet more pointed sample, the two-time MVP has 21 passing/rushing touchdowns to just five interceptions on third-down plays in the second half of one-score regular-season games dating back to 2020.

His 108.0 rating under those circumstances in that time frame ranks second among qualified passers, behind only Joe Burrow.

Allen might take some flak for the fact that he hasn't gotten the Bills over the hump in the playoffs this decade, but the reality is he's posted a stellar 116.7 passer rating on third-down passes in the second half of one-score games the last five postseasons.

That's beyond elite considering the competition level in January.

Allen also has a triple-digit rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games the last two regular seasons, and he's generated 33 combined passing and rushing touchdowns to just seven interceptions under those circumstances since 2020.

Highlighting it all is that heroic 2024 win over the Chiefs , but clouding it is the fact he is 0-7 in his career in overtime games despite possessing the ball on six of those occasions.

Speak of the devil. Burrow has a ridiculous 111.6 rating on third-down plays in the second half of one-score games since coming into the league in 2020. That blows Patrick Mahomes, Allen and Purdy out of the water.

That's just one stat, but he also holds his own with a 108.3 rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games in the last half-decade.

Although his recent results temper his case somewhat, Burrow remains a proven elite performer in high-pressure situations.

Mahomes is indisputably one of the most clutch playoff performers in league history.

In the last five years, the two-time MVP has a 113.2 passer rating with seven touchdown throws and one interception on 94 passes in the fourth quarter of one-score playoff games.

He's led a tied-for-league-high 17 game-winning drives in the regular season in that time frame, but he's orchestrated six more in the playoffs (as well as five fourth-quarter comebacks, while no other quarterback has more than three during that span).

The reel starts with his late-game heroics in Kansas City's Super Bowl LVIII victory over the 49ers following the 2023 season, but his repeated fourth-quarter successes have made such moments seem routine.

The reigning MVP edges out the legendary Mahomes, mainly because of what he's done for us lately.

Stafford has an eye-popping 115.4 rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games since 2024. But if you extend back to 2020, that number only drops slightly to 107.0.

Most recently, in the 2025 playoffs, the 38-year-old led two game-winning drives in the fourth quarter (bringing his total to five in the postseason since 2021) while posting a 109.3 rating with a one-score margin in the final frame of those victories.

Oh, and in terms of that Sharp Football Analysis accounting of EPA per dropback when trailing in the second half in 2025, Stafford crushed his quarterback peers with a mark of +0.45 (Love was the only other qualifier above +0.30, at +0.31).