Fantasy Football Rankings: 5 players Hayden Winks is higher and lower on than consensus

Fantasy football analyst Hayden Winks shares the players he's higher — and lower — on than Yahoo consensus for Week 3.

These rankings will be tinkered all the way until kickoff, so please check back in on our weekly rankings pages and Sunday AM sit/start show for the absolute latest.

These blurbs are also Hayden's The Blueprint, which are his weekly rankings and analysis column. T he RB version is out on Wednesdays , while the WR version and the QB/TE/K/DEF version are each out on Thursdays before Thursday Night Football.

Terrance Ferguson, TE, Rams — 49.5 proj. yards

Ferguson was unleashed in Week 2 without Puka Nacua. His role wasn't even that bad in Week 1 either, when he ran a route on 49% of Matthew Stafford dropbacks. But Week 2 was a totally different ballgame (71% routes) as a real featured player (30% targets and 13.0 expected half PPR points). Ferguson surpassed Colby Parkinson in 11-personnel, and he was a stand up slot player on a bulk of those snaps. When the Rams went heavy, Ferguson was often 1-of-2 Rams eligibles running a real route with a third option in the flats as a checkdown. Those are very valuable looks, as they often are tied with play action. Ferguson also had a target where he split through the B gap and caught a TD on a coverage bust in the end zone.

Those three drops were killer and a sign that he's an inexperienced player in development, but Ferguson is a must-hold for a long time at this point, even if Nacua returns in Week 3. The upside is too obvious. Without Nacua, Ferguson has a case to be a top-5 fantasy option. With Nacua, he's more of a dart throw. I'd treat him as a real target off the waiver wire if available. I hope you guys had him rostered from the draft or directly after Nacua went to DNP on Friday. Signs were here.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers — 86.5 proj. total yards

Warren has outplayed Rico Dowdle in each phase to start the year. The pass protection difference is night and day, with Dowdle making critical errors multiple times in each game. Warren is also the better receiver in general. And the eye test and numbers suggest Warren has been more effective on the ground, too. Warren's -1% rush yards over expected are much better than Dowdle's -47%.

More importantly to that is the Dowdle toe injury. He left the game, returned and then was ruled out. Without Dowdle on the field, Warren played 50-of-52 snaps, only losing two to special-teamer Travis Homer. The Steelers offense is beyond disorganized right now, but there is potential for real bellcow usage if Dowdle misses. With Dowdle, Warren is the RB31 on RB20 usage. Dowdle was still in a walking boot on Wednesday. This assumes he is out.

Jameson Williams, WR, Lions — 54.5 proj. receiving yards

The Jameson Williams rollercoaster is a bumpy road, but he will play so much better than he has in the two games to start the year. He will have fewer layup targets with Sam LaPorta healthy, yet Williams' WR28 expected half PPR points are enough to keep the faith that the averages will warrant a weekly WR3 ranking. That just means living with a couple of WR5 outings before WR1 nirvana.

This is an eruption spot. The Lions are at home, projected for 27.0 points (fifth most), and host a secondary that doesn't have reliable outside corners. The Jets allowed 4-41-1 to Christian Watson last week and had multiple downfield DPI calls against Matthew Golden. Both are great comparisons for Williams' skill set.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, 49ers — 38.5 proj. receiving yards

The Niners are using Samuel just as they always have. He's mustered up a 22% target share with a lowly 3.3 average depth of target. He's had screens, backfield usage, a carry, quick outs of play action, and the occasional intermediate target in both games as a near full-time player. San Francisco also lost WR3/4 Demarcus Robinson in Week 2, and Mike Evans (hip) is at least on the injury report with a minor issue. With San Francisco looking as potent as ever, this is a real fantasy football role to chase. Samuel is the WR26 on WR33 usage so far. There's not a "washed" component to his film right now while he's at full health.

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens — 43.5 proj. receiving yards

We nailed the call last week (WR10 on WR17 usage), and Zay Flowers (hamstring) isn't practicing again. The reality is the rest of the Ravens' skill group is so bad that there's no choice but to get Bateman more involved. He is a former first-round pick for what it's worth. He's not a total scrub on tape.

The matchup is also excellent. The Cowboys had coverage busts against the Giants, lost multiple starters in the back seven since then, and also allowed wide-open explosive opportunities to Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs on tape last week. I'm not threatened by Daron Bland, and CB2 Cobie Durant (hamstring) is also looking doubtful to play. It's easy to make the math work when the Ravens are projected for 28.0 points, like they are here at home.

Tyler Warren, TE, Colts — 46.5 proj. yards

Six-of-seven targets to Warren last week were at or behind the line of scrimmage. His other one was the Chiefs' coverage bust that led to a wide-open TD in the middle of the end zone. It's not ideal, but it'll get the job done and absolutely gives him a better floor than others in this tier. Without Alec Pierce (heel) for the next month or longer, the Colts offense will feel very congested, but that also likely means an extra target or so to Warren. He's the TE13 on TE9 usage so far, as a more low-end TE1 than "elite" TE1.

Bucky Irving, RB, Buccaneers — 76.5 proj. total yards

Since 2024, the Vikings are sixth-best against fantasy RBs. They've only allowed five RBs to reach 20+ half PPR points; two of those were Jahmyr Gibbs. Their swarm style prevents RBs from getting into the route, and it could incentivize more snaps out of Kenneth Gainwell this time around. Minnesota has also added EDGE Dallas Turner and DT Jalen Redmond full breakouts to the equation this season. Over the last four games dating back to last year, Minnesota is the very best fantasy RB defense, allowing just 11.4 half PPR points to the entire room.

D'Andre Swift, RB, Bears — 86.5 proj. total yards

Swift can't be viewed as the RB1 he's scored like to open the year without Caleb Williams (hamstring) and Tyson Bagent (concussion). The Bears only project for 18.5 points (29th) against an Eagles defense that has been very good since DC Vic Fangio showed up. The Bears will continue rotating drives between Swift and Kyle Monangai, and now it's for an offense that we don't love. Here is how many half PPR points Swift has scored when the Bears finished with 21 points or fewer since 2025: 9.0, 5.3, 9.7, 14.1, 14.4, and 12.4. That's an average of 10.8, equivalent to the RB23 on a per-game basis.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots — 53.5 proj. total yards

Week 2 was a major win for Henderson. Rhamondre Stevenson started the game, but he fumbled the ball in a nonsense yards-after-the-catch moment shortly after. The Patriots rode Henderson for a larger-than-normal split afterwards. He started the second half and ended with 16 carries to Stevenson's 6.

Henderson split between new LG Alijah Vera-Tucker and switched-position C Jared Wilson for a nearly untouched rushing TD, but the rest of the game was forgettable. He wasn't targeted or tasked with a single pass-protection rep, and the Patriots had 0 plays within the 5-yard line. We head into Week 3 without major answers of what the split will be. I'd lean Henderson as the touch leader, with Stevenson still the favorite for goal-line reps. It's worth noting that the Patriots have only averaged 16.7 expected half PPR points to their RB room through two weeks (27th).

Since Week 10 of last year, the Jaguars have allowed 60 yards per game to RBs, easily the best mark in the NFL.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders — 42.5 proj. receiving yards

McLaurin was sadly inches away from a very big fantasy outing in Week 2. He had three targets in the end zone that went incomplete (including on a flea flicker) and a ticky-tack OPI called on him on a slant win. Only accumulating 6.0 half PPR points on 15.4 expected points is a real bummer, especially knowing we're getting Marcus Mariota now.

McLaurin has 10 games with Mariota attempting more than 10 pass attempts (most of these were starts). He has averaged 12.1 half PPR points (WR12) on WR15 usage and an 18% target share, leading to 104 air yards per game. Mariota has been more aggressive in recent years, and it's possible McLaurin can hold onto some fantasy relevance as we head into bye weeks. Those numbers are the absolute best outcome, however. The difference is the presence of Stefon Diggs, who is playing in a mini Amon-Ra St. Brown role under new OC David Blough. Diggs has a slightly higher target share through two weeks, 23% to 20%.

The Seahawks are the second-best fantasy WR defense when adjusting for schedule since Week 10 of last year. They'll have elite CB1 Devon Witherspoon in McLaurin's general area, and I don't trust these backup offensive linemen with all of the funky things Seattle does defensively.