Way-Too-Early 2026-27 Calder Trophy Rankings for NHL Rookie of the Year

Any preseason NHL award ranking should be taken with a grain of salt, but none more than the Calder Trophy.

You may think, going into the season, that there's an obvious answer. Most years—not all, but most—that obvious answer will be wrong.

There are so many variables involved beyond just "who is purely the best rookie player." What does your team's roster makeup look like, and how will that affect playing time? Are there other rookies on the team to split the vote or the opportunities? Does your team suck even though you're really good?

And the worst of the bunch: Did you get injured at any point in your rookie season, thus robbing you of games played and opportunities to rack up points?

So let's look at the playing field and where things stand in a vacuum. We'll check back in later in the season to see how on track we were.

5. Roman Kantserov, LW/RW, Chicago Blackhawks

Chicago Blackhawks rookie forward Roman Kantserov is perhaps the biggest question mark of our top five. We know that he's an unbelievable offensive player; Kantserov had the most goals in the KHL last season with 36, and was ninth overall in scoring with 64 points. Ten of those 36 goals were power-play goals, enough to show that he's capable of being a power-play asset, but not so many that he's only or primarily scoring on the power play.

What we don't know is how his game will translate to North American hockey. It's always a learning curve, moving from any European league to the NHL, though the KHL is one of the better leagues for predicting translatable scoring ability. It'll be interesting to see who he ends up playing with in Chicago as well. Young Blackhawks star Connor Bedard seems the most likely option for a linemate, but it's possible he ends up alongside fellow rookie Anton Frondell. With Frondell being another dark-horse Calder candidate, just outside the top five that we discuss here, that could backfire on both players as far as the hunt for the rookie of the year award goes.

Pretty good as far as linemates and teammates go, though.

Winning the Calder Trophy as a defenseman is an uphill battle, but it can be done. Just ask last year's winner, Matthew Schaefer, or this player's brother, Lane Hutson. But Cole Hutson is not Lane Hutson, and this season's Washington Capitals are not the 2024-25 Montreal Canadiens.

Without question, Cole Hutson has the talent necessary to win the Calder in a vacuum. He's extremely skilled, with excellent vision, deception, and puck-distribution skills. He's clearly capable of translating the offense he brought to teams at lower levels of hockey to the NHL. Unfortunately for Hutson, the season isn't played in a vacuum.

He's got a lot stacked against him in this Calder race: the players he's up against, the structure of the Washington Capitals roster, which defines his opportunities, and the aforementioned fact that it's just harder for defensemen to stand out in the needed ways in general. John Carlson leaving the Capitals could create special teams opportunities for Hutson, which would push the Calder door open a bit further. Watch this space, because he could definitely end up a dark horse option.

3. Ivar Stenberg, LW/RW, San Jose Sharks

This is a 2A-2B situation, for sure—I think there's an equal chance at the Calder for Martone and the San Jose Sharks' second-overall pick, Ivar Stenberg. And with the question marks currently in the ether for Gavin McKenna, we'll likely have a better idea next time we check in whether that Martone-Stenberg combo will leapfrog McKenna or not.

There's no question that Stenberg is the more complete player of the two, with experience playing men's professional hockey under his belt and a reputation for being trusted anywhere on the ice. He's almost certainly going to get power-play time from the get-go, though which unit remains to be seen, and that could be a difference-maker.

The problem is that the Calder often turns into a points contest, and while we definitely can't rule out Stenberg passing Martone and McKenna in that area, we also don't feel strongly that he will. The Sharks have quite the cadre of skilled young players, and sometimes that plays out poorly for a rookie seeking that Calder opportunity. Which leads to another question we await the answer to: who will Stenberg play alongside? That itself will shape both how his offensive game and how his perception around the league play out.

2. Porter Martone, RW, Philadelphia Flyers

You may be surprised by this second-ranked player; then again, if you've seen him play, you might not be. Porter Martone is an offensive wrecking ball on his best days. If he plays the way we know that he's capable of, and scores the way we know he's capable of, he almost feels like more of a shoo-in than McKenna. At the very least, he's going to put up a serious fight for that top spot. He had 10 points, including four goals, in his first nine regular-season NHL games, which he swiftly followed with five points in his first 10 playoff games. It was a "sit up and take notice" kind of moment.

That being said, Martone has that same off-puck engagement question as McKenna. He did go a long way toward assuaging that concern toward the end of last season, and if other Flyers can pick up the slack in that area, it may not be a major issue. But it's something worth keeping an eye on. He is going to have to play less to the perimeter than he's used to in order to sustain his offensive production across an 84-game season. We have less of a worry about him adjusting to the pace, given how many games he played last season and the variety of environments he played in.

Even with his foibles in mind, it will not be surprising in the least if Martone pulls off a Calder Trophy win. Especially given how he kicked off his NHL career at the end of last season.

1. Gavin McKenna, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs

Our 2026 first overall pick feels like the obvious answer.

We're ranking him first here because he's the best option in terms of pure skill—McKenna's offensive instincts are off-the-rails good, particularly the way that he is able to process the flow of the game.

He's an incredible playmaker, able to accurately connect passes that others wouldn't even think to make. His linemates will most likely include at least one of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, or John Tavares. It's a good spot to be in for one of the NHL's most anticipated rookies of the last several years.

But there are also many unanswered questions that could trip him up.

Are the Leafs going to be any good? Couldn't tell you. But McKenna wouldn't be the first Calder candidate to lose out on the trophy because his team laid a giant egg. If they are good, however, and he's getting offensive opportunities left and right, his own issues off the puck might offset the pros of his game. He also has to adjust to what is now an 84-game season.

We still think he's the most likely candidate now, before any games have been played. Time to watch how those games go.