Scarlet Spreadsheet: What the analytics say about Ohio State vs. Illinois

College football has evolved so rapidly over the last several years, and there are an increasing variety of ways to break down any given Saturday.

Here on Scarlet Spreadsheet , we are going to compile all of the various analytical models to get the best possible preview of each of Ohio State's matchups throughout the 2026 season based on the underlying numbers and metrics.

The Buckeyes open up Big Ten play this weekend against Illinois. The Illini offer a step up in competition from Kent State a week ago, and Ryan Day's group will be looking to improve in some key areas that they failed to accomplish against the Golden Flashes, including third down conversions, red zone production and the rushing attack.

Day's team still has a significant talent advantage here, but Illinois can give Ohio State a run for its money if they continue to fail in the margins.

Matchup Prediction : Ohio State will beat Illinois by 26.5 at home (96% win chance)

Ohio State : 8.96 (6th) Offense: 68.82 (5th) Defense: 45.05 (1st)

Illinois : 7.86 (50th) Offense: 61.69 (26th) Defense: 34.21 (38th)

Matchup Prediction : Ohio State 35, Illinois 17 (88% win probability)

How many points an offense is expected to score on a drive given the current situation

Value is primarily driven by down, distance and field position A five-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is worth more than a five-yard gain on 3rd-and-20

Value is primarily driven by down, distance and field position

A five-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is worth more than a five-yard gain on 3rd-and-20

EPA is probability-based, not exact An EPA of 1.2 does not mean a team will score 1.2 points On average, a team will score 1.2 points on that drive in that situation

An EPA of 1.2 does not mean a team will score 1.2 points

On average, a team will score 1.2 points on that drive in that situation

EPA measures how much a single play changes an offense's chance of scoring

Measured from starting field position to end zone

A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends at the opponent 40-yard line = 50%

A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends in a touchdown = 100%

Ohio State leads the all-time series against Illinois 69-30-4, with the Buckeyes having won each of the last 10 meetings.

Despite now being in his eighth season as Ohio State's head coach, Ryan Day has only faced the Illini one time — a 34-16 victory in Champaign in 2025.

Prior to that meeting, the Buckeyes last played Illinois in 2017, where they won 52-14 in Columbus.

Illinois' most recent victory against Ohio State came in 2007, when the Illini upset the No. 1 Buckeyes 28-21 in Columbus. It is Illinois' only victory in the series over the last 14 meetings dating back to 2002.

As the season goes along the Scarlet Spreadsheet for each Ohio State game will include up-to-date in-season models and analytics, breaking down each matchup down to the numbers and underlying metrics.