Paul Finebaum explains how USC head coach Lincoln Riley’s hot seat can cool down

The college football season is underway, and there's a lot of pressure on head coaches. Not only are several coaches taking over new programs with expectations to deliver, but some are also entering the season with their jobs on the line.

For USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley, he's not quite on his last leg. However, there's no doubt his seat has been getting warm. Despite this, one analyst thinks there's a good chance it could cool down.

Paul Finebaum discussed coaches who could get off the hot seat this year, and Riley was one of the biggest names he mentioned. The key? Quarterback Jayden Maiava .

"I would say Lincoln Riley's got a chance this year. He's got a great quarterback. He still can never seem to win a big game." Finebaum said on his Paul Finebaum Show.

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and head coach Lincoln Riley react after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

There's one major aspect that stands out for Riley that few coaches can match: his ability to recruit and develop quarterbacks. Riley has helped multiple quarterbacks reach the NFL, including Baker Mayfield , Kyler Murray , and Caleb Williams , who was selected first overall.

Despite this, USC has posted just a 37-18 record with no College Football Playoff appearances under Riley. When he was Oklahoma 's head coach, he led the Sooners to three playoff appearances.

Making the jump from Oklahoma to USC came with massive expectations. USC, after all, has significantly greater resources to recruit with in the modern NIL era.

Maiava could be Riley's game changer. He's more than capable of making big plays for USC, and he could hear his name called early in April's NFL Draft.

Sep 4, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws the ball before the game against the Fresno State Bulldogs at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

Riley recruited Maiava through the transfer portal from UNLV . Maiava has improved his game each year and is off to a hot start in 2026. Could he help Riley and USC finally break through and reach the College Football Playoff?

USC's place in the Big Ten makes that challenge even more difficult. The Trojans will have to contend with powerhouse programs such as Ohio State, Oregon , and Indiana. The biggest question for Riley's team is whether its defense can make enough plays to at least become an average unit.

If it can, and Maiava continues on his current trajectory, it could be a big year for both the USC Trojans and Riley.