Why an Emilio Pagán decision is key to Cincinnati Reds' playoff future

It doesn't take a baseball genius to identify the first, biggest order of business for the Cincinnati Reds after watching this year's World Series.

The division-rival Brewers rode one of the best bullpen runs in postseason history to stream-roll the field — including a sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers along the way.

Their collective 1.38 ERA over 65 postseason innings ranked second in history (minimum 50 innings) to the 2022 Astros. And to put it in 2026 context, only one reliever in baseball this year had an ERA that low in at least 50 innings.

Which meant on average, the Brewers sent All-Star Blue Jays closer Louis Varland to the mound every time they made a pitching change this October.

So how important is Pagán – one of the best closers in the game the past two seasons – to the Reds in their very public quest to try to return to the playoffs under manager Terry Francona in 2027?

Pagán, 35, is one of three Reds with an Oct. 31 option deadline in play for his 2027 status with the club, the only one with a better-than-slim chance to return. His is a player option for $10 million, coming off a season in which he missed two months with a hamstring injury – and then was dominant the rest of the way.

The two others are DH Eugenio Suárez and reliever Pierce Johnson, neither one of which is expected to have his mutual option exercised by the club.

Pagán leaned on the counsel of his longtime agent as he took the decision into the final hours before the deadline, at least the business part of the decision.

"I haven't been shy. Everybody here knows this. I like it here," said Pagán, who has been with the Reds since signing the first of a pair of two-year free-agent deals before the 2024 season. "I want to be a part of the solution to get this organization going where it needs to be. That's where my mindset is."

The Reds made the playoffs in 2025 on the final day of the season, about five months after Pagán took over the closer role full-time, before converting a career-high 32 saves with a 2.88 ERA. He suffered one of the lengthier injuries for a pitching staff crushed by health issues, before returning to convert all 19 save chances with a 1.88 ERA.

His influence as a veteran on younger pitchers on the staff has been almost as impressive.

Pagán didn't expect to jump into the free agent market as he spoke near the end of the season. But he also needed to weigh the business realities of his contract option, whether that means wading into a free agent market fraught with a looming labor lockout or seeking the chance to add more length to the Reds deal.

"I'm not worried about any kind of a business decision," he said. "I anticipate being on this team and hopefully trying to not just get back into the playoffs next year but compete for a division championship. Obviously, we've proven we've got a pretty serious way to go. So I'd love to be a part of that solution."

That uphill climb only looks more serious, and daunting, after watching the Brewers do to every challenger in October what they've done to the Reds in almost every series the last five years.

If nothing else, Milwaukee's recipe for success underscored the Reds' plan. If they're healthy, they start with a competitive starting rotation.

As for the lineup, offensively and defensively, the front office has an implausible task to shore things up this winter.

But when it comes to the bullpen, the return of Pagán could be a significant start to at least being able to dream a little about turning that 75-87 debacle of a 2026 season into something that approaches at least the fringes of the wild-card race by September.

"It's a good feeling to feel like I'm doing my job and coming through for my team," he said of his post-injury performance. "But being in the playoffs is more important than individual statistics. So it's unfortunate this season didn't go the way we wanted it to. I'm glad I'm coming through and doing my job, but I wish it was for more meaningful games."