Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez launches homer No. 40 in an MVP-caliber season. 'Numbers don't lie'

Number 40 elicited no fanfare from the man who hit it. After his fifth-inning blast landed in Daikin Park's second deck, Yordan Alvarez rounded the bases with an impassive expression. The hint of a smile crossed it as he reached home plate and bashed forearms with Isaac Paredes . Yet no movement suggested a milestone to Jeremy Peña , who awaited the slugger with a hug at the end of the Houston Astros dugout.

Just four other men in Houston franchise history have mounted a 40-home run season. Jeff Bagwell did it three times, Lance Berkman twice and Richard Hidalgo and Alex Bregman each once. Alvarez joined their company Thursday, his benchmark swing aiding an Astros home-run barrage in a 6-2 win over the Royals and providing his prolific season with the kind of flourish his understated personality would not.

"It's special," said Peña, the Astros shortstop and leadoff hitter. "Because last year he dealt with a lot of injuries and a lot of people - I'm not going to say they forgot about him, but they kind of did. They kind of forgot about Yordan.

"I know that he took it personal. He took it upon himself to take care of his body this year and stay on the field, stay healthy. And he knows that when he's healthy, he can put up MVP numbers. He's shown it this year and it's special to watch."

Alvarez hit his 35th home run on July 28. That he required 42 more games to record his 40th, a stretch in which the Astros' offense ebbed along with their 1-2 lineup punch, perhaps opened up the race for the award Peña mentioned. Rays third baseman Junior Caminero and Yankees ace Cam Schlittler have both garnered public support in the AL Most Valuable Player discussion in recent days.

Both of their clubs own records superior to that of Houston, which is 77-76 and clinging to a one-game lead in the AL West . That Alvarez is a primary reason the Astros are even in a playoff hunt is something even their manager does not dispute. Few teams could withstand removal of a Triple Crown candidate, much less one on which every other hitter had an OPS under .800 before Thursday's game.

"Our club, without him, would be a completely different record," manager Joe Espada said. "Obviously, credit to our players. This is a team, everybody contributes. But without Yordan, we could be in a completely different spot."

Alvarez entered Thursday with a win probability added value 3.0 points higher than the next-closest AL hitter, Ben Rice of the Yankees, per Baseball Reference. Since 1910, just seven AL or NL hitters have led their league in win probability added by that wide a margin over a full season: Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Willie McCovey, Al Simmons and Ty Cobb.

Among AL hitters, Alvarez entered Thursday with a 116-point lead in OPS, a 33-point lead in adjusted OPS-plus and a 34-point lead in runs created, per Baseball Reference. The list of players who have led their league by as wide a margin in all three of those categories for a full season: Aaron Judge , Bonds, Williams, Ruth, Stan Musial, Rogers Hornsby, Mark McGwire and Nap Lajoie.

"Forty homers is impressive," said Astros outfielder Taylor Trammell . "But to do it while hitting .300-plus, that means he's a complete hitter in my book, and he's unreal.

"I'm not discrediting anybody, I think there's a lot of guys in that MVP race that are really good. But when he comes up to the plate, every single time it's like we have a good chance to win or get back in the game or whatever it is. And every time he's just clutch. It can be a hit, it can be a homer, it can be a walk, whatever it is. He's a complete hitter."

Bias is natural in the Astros' clubhouse, but their offense's trajectory is instructive. From Aug. 3 through Sunday, the Astros scored the third-fewest runs in the majors. Alvarez batted .242 with three homers in 35 games in that stretch. Peña, the lineup's sparkplug, posted a .170 average and a .518 OPS over his 35 games in the same span.

Both stirred in a three-game series against Kansas City that reflected their indispensability to any hopes the Astros have of a playoff run. Peña went 8-for-13 in the series with three home runs. Alvarez went 4-for-10 with two home runs. The duo combined for all four of Houston's hits in a series-opening win and two of the five solo home runs it recorded in the finale Thursday.

Peña homered on the first pitch a Royals starter threw in two of the three games. In addition to picking good locations, Espada said he thought Peña was "in a good posture to hit those pitches." Peña said he found a better position from which to deliver his swing and "do damage on my pitches," partly through early on-field hitting sessions with Alvarez the first two days.

Thursday, Peña hit his 20th home run this season on a first-pitch sinker from Seth Lugo . Daulton Varsho and LaMonte Wade Jr. also homered before Alvarez struck his 40th on a Lugo fastball in the fifth inning. Trammell added a solo shot in the eighth for the Astros, who ended the night with a one-game division lead over the Rangers, over whom they own the tiebreaker.

"Obviously, Yordan's our horse," Peña said. "Where he goes, we go. And he's been doing it all year. He's been carrying us all year."

It is an opportunity Alvarez was denied last season. A hand fracture and ankle sprain limited him to 48 games for an Astros team that fell one win short of the playoffs. This year has illustrated the difference that most likely made.

Alvarez ended Thursday with a 1.027 OPS, over 70 points ahead of any other qualified major-hitter. A shot at the second Triple Crown in the majors since 1967 remained in play. Alvarez was tied for first in the AL in average (.311) with the Rays' Chandler Simpson . His 99 RBIs trailed AL leader Pete Alonso by three. His 40th home run put him one behind Caminero, with nine games left in Houston's season.

"I'm a believer in: numbers don't lie," Peña said. "Numbers don't lie. And yes, they're going to say he's a DH. But at the end of the day, what he's doing, it's above and beyond."