Fantasy Football Rankings: Hayden Winks' WR Blueprint for Week 3

The Blueprint is my weekly column and basically everything that I use to build out the most accurate rankings I can. There will be a RB column , this WR column and a combination column on the onesie positions . You will find film notes and endless charts. Maybe enough charts to stress test the Yahoo website. I kid.

It's impossible to get every ranking thoroughly by Thursday Night Football, so be sure to keep checking in on these columns through Sunday morning. As always, my full rankings at every position are available .

Note: Total-yardage projections are based on betting markets.

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (at WAS) - 90.5 proj. receiving yards

JSN absolutely shredded the Cardinals' safeties. Yes, safeties . That's a promising sign for new OC Brian Fleury. JSN double-moved them for a long TD, then had teach-tape zone wins as one of the most QB-friendly receivers in the NFL, then had his usual man-coverage shimmy moments. Getting 22.2 and 38.0 half PPR points in games with Drew Lock goes to show how elite of a player he's going to be this year, whether Sam Darnold is back this week or not.

The Commanders CBs have been lit up in coverage, too. They just allowed 43.2 half PPR points to WRs last week, on 279 passing yards. Smith-Njigba also handed them 129 receiving yards in Week 9 of last year.

2. Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. NYJ) - 75.5 proj. receiving yards

St. Brown is the WR2 on WR1 overall usage through two weeks. It's a continuation of the trend of games without David Montgomery , and it's also a continuation of the trend of the Lions defense being exposed. The Lions will constantly be in shootouts, and new OC Drew Petzing needs a middle-of-the-field pass catcher to be the dominator of his offense. ARSB has closed the gap on the other elite WR1s in fantasy. The Jets don't have a great secondary right now, and their offense is showing signs of life to keep this game competitive. Detroit projects for 27.0 points, fifth-most of the week.

3. Ja'Marr Chase (at PIT) - 74.5 proj. receiving yards

Chase rebounded in a much harder matchup in Week 2 against the Texans, and he should be even healthier after that hyperextended knee in camp. The Bengals are a little more balanced than the peak of Chase's fantasy production, but it's not enough to keep him out of the WR1 conversation each week.

There's a ton of history between Chase and the Steelers defense, of course. He's lit them up for 97 YPG since 2022, and a couple of these games were without Joe Burrow (Week 7 and 11 of 2025). Pittsburgh hasn't had CB1 Joey Porter Jr. (holdout) this year, and there's a notable drop-off at the perimeter CB spots without him. Cincy projects for 23.0 points (12th).

4. Chris Olave (vs. LV) - 79.5 proj. receiving yards

Olave is an excellent player who is playing in an awesome environment for fantasy points. His 169 air yards are 29 more than the WR2 overall of the metric (Parker Washington ), and he's the WR4 in expected half PPR points. The Saints are playing with the fastest neutral pace, and Shough is dropping back like a madman:

The matchup has no issues either. The Raiders aren't the pushover defensively that they've been in years past because of big-time offseason investments, but they also don't have a standout CB1. They haven't been tested at WR so far with matchups against the Dolphins and Chargers. Caleb Douglas did get them a couple of times on deep shots in the opener. The Saints project for 23.25 points (11th) at home.

5. CeeDee Lamb (vs. BAL) - 82.5 proj. receiving yards

The Ravens matchup is no cupcake. They have three awesome corners. CB1 Nate Wiggins plays the left side, CB2 Marlon Humphrey plays the right side and S/SCB Kyle Hamilton shuts down the middle while also rushing the passer. They weren't able to slow down Alec Pierce or Chris Olave as in-breaking outside receivers to open the year, however. Lamb will move across the formation, and Dak Prescott is certainly one of the QBs to trust against a complicated zone defense like HC Jesse Minter's. The Cowboys project for 24.5 points (sixth). Lamb is the WR4 on WR8 usage and WR7 targets. This is his most difficult matchup so far after opening with the Giants and Commanders.

6. Davante Adams (at DEN) - 65.5 proj. receiving yards

This assumes Puka Nacua (groin) misses. I'm beginning to get real worried about Nacua's injury, as it's not improving per coach Sean McVay, who is typically pretty optimistic. The fact that Nacua had a similar injury in training camp and hasn't practiced in a while is troubling. As we saw on Monday Night Football, Adams still has elite ball skills and nuance. While he's healthy, Adams has an elite role in an offense projected for 23.5 points (10th).

Unfortunately, the matchup is a real doozy with All-Pro CB1 Pat Surtain available to shadow. Denver was the third-best defense against fantasy WRs last year, only allowing 21.2 half PPR points per game to the entire opposing WR room. That alone keeps Adams from the elite WR1 range despite a monster 8-195-2 game last week.

7. Justin Jefferson (at TB) - 68.5 proj. receiving yards

The Vikings didn't need to pass the ball much in rainy Week 2 conditions with a backup QB, but they should be ready to roll again with Kyler Murray back for a pass-funnel matchup in Tampa Bay. Jefferson has been an elite WR1 with all QBs beyond Max Brosmer and J.J. McCarthy , and Kyler should allow him to be just that. The only difference is the Vikings have opened the year with the No. 32 neutral pass rate (37%). That's uncharacteristic and would lower his expectation a bit, if it holds. I'm dubious of that, considering the head coach.

The Buccaneers have lost their shine under HC Todd Bowles. There are isolated losses in coverage as well as busted coverages. CB1 Zyon McCollum is competitive but not a shutdown option, and CB2 Jacob Parrish is on the injury report. If they can't generate more pressure up front, they are in trouble. Tampa Bay allowed the sixth-most passing yards last year. Minnesota has a 22.0-point team total (16th) as slight road favorites. It'd be a big boost if Aaron Jones Sr. (knee) can't go; the team doesn't trust their backups at RB.

8. Parker Washington (vs. NE) - 61.5 proj. receiving yards

Washington's matchup in Week 2 proved difficult on tape, and he still ate. Through two weeks, Washington's 38% target share is only beaten by Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and his 140 air yards per game only by Chris Olave.

It's so clear that Washington is the designed-target player, and it's not in the traditional at line-of-scrimmage variety. His first read targets are frequently 10-25 yards downfield. He's the WR10 on WR11 usage so far. Washington will be one of the most valuable clicks in fantasy football this year, particularly if you started with multiple RBs before selecting Washington in Round 5-6. Meanwhile, Brian Thomas Jr. is once again not playing in 2-WR sets.

The matchup is more neutral than anything. The Patriots' entire defense is good, but they have been very good at stopping the run and have shutdown CB1 Christian Gonzalez to stop the primary outside receiver. I'd guess that'll mostly be Brian Thomas Jr.'s assignment, while Washington gets hidden across the formation. There's a real dropoff in talent at corner in New England , and that's Washington's matchup. Remember, Jacksonville is seventh in neutral pass rate and second in neutral pace right now, so Washington can eat even in difficult spots. The Jaguars are seventh in projected points (24.25) at home.

9. Christian Watson (vs. ATL) - 70.5 proj. receiving yards

Watson is not the player you think he is (unless you've been listening to the show every week!). He began getting far more intermediate routes in last year's breakout, and the Packers are doing that again in 2025. He's the WR5 in total targets between 1-10 air yards right now, giving him a far more bankable weekly floor. These plays include targets inside the five-yard line. With the Packers inept at RB and OL, they'll have no choice but to spam targets to Watson and Matthew Golden (their other safety blanket).

Watson is the WR5 on WR5 usage and WR5 targets. Oh yeah, he's also really, really good and a routine "model dunker." There's an argument for rest-of-season WR1 status. Jayden Reed (neck) is out indefinitely, and Watson was put into the slot more often because of that. He was the slot on 47% of Week 2 snaps in 3-WR sets.

The matchup is great, too. The Falcons are back to watchable with Michael Penix Jr. starting at QB again, and their defense is very gettable with EDGEs Jalon Walker (IR), James Pearce Jr. (suspended), and Samson Ebukam (out) missing. Falcons CB1 A.J. Terrell (IR) and SCB Billy Bowman (questionable) are also dealing with injuries.

This is a blow-up spot. The Packers are projected for 23.5 points at home.

Wilson isn't leading the Jets in targets, but that will smooth out over the season. He's still the WR18 on WR22 usage to start the year, and this likely will be the first game where the Jets are in real catch-up mode after beating the Titans with ease and leading for most of the Packers' OT loss. The underlying data is promising. The Jets are 13th in neutral pass rate and 10th in EPA per dropback with much better QB play. It's looking like a career-best year for Wilson.

This is the matchup to take advantage of. The Lions are nuked in the secondary right now with both of their starting safeties on IR, and with their CB depth depleted due to releases, injuries and incompetence. The Lions have allowed the second-most passing yards this season, watching Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele , Josh Palmer and Keon Coleman have moments against them. The Jets are projected for 20.5 points (22nd) as 6.5-point road dogs in a dome environment. Let's party.

11. George Pickens (vs. BAL) - 59.5 proj. receiving yards

It's been a bad start for Pickens through two weeks with CeeDee Lamb back to full health. In 15 games with Lamb, Pickens is the WR16 (11.5 half PPR points per game) on WR12 usage and a 22% target share. He's been running cold on touchdowns (0.27 per game) in this sample, while running pure with five TDs in four games without Lamb. That's the type of thing that will positively regress for Pickens, even if his volume will be that of a fringe WR1 than a sure-fire top-10 option. Pickens will be one of the most efficient targets, and he's still the WR19 in targets per game.

The matchup is fairly difficult with Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey playing sides at outside corner. They aren't so good that Pickens will be shut down, but it's a tougher spot in general. The Cowboys are still projected for 24.5 points (sixth) and could be forced into passing as slight road dogs to the Ravens. Pickens is a season-long buy low.

12. Drake London (at GB) - 66.5 proj. receiving yards

Michael Penix Jr. (ACL) will start on Thursday Night Football. Thank you, Lord. There have been 12 games with London and Penix. London is the WR3 (17.1 half PPR points) on WR1 overall (16.6 expected half PPR points) usage in them, on an elite 34% target share. London was playing slightly more in the slot last year than he has in 2026 with a new play caller, and who knows if the QB is going to get back to where he was before yet another torn-up knee. Stylistically, however, Penix is just way more likely to toss it up to his top target than whatever we're calling Cooper Rush . It's best to throw out the first two weeks. London is back in the WR1/2 mix.

The Packers have been the second-worst fantasy WR defense since Week 10 of last year, and they don't have a standout CB1 yet. But EDGE Lukas Van Ness , S Javon Bullard and the general plan on defense under new DC Jonathon Gannon have improved since that sample began.

13. DeVonta Smith (at CHI) - 72.5 proj. receiving yards

Smith was dynamite last week, catching four passes in the 2-minute drill to win the game against the Titans. The Eagles offense is one-dimensional right now, sitting at No. 31 in RB success rate while hitting endless explosives through the air. They'll stay run-committed for now, but Smith and Jalen Hurts have been awesome on the whole. Smith is the WR14 on WR14 usage through two weeks against simple opponents (Commanders and Titans).

This is another simple opponent. The Bears will sit in man coverage more than others, and both CB1 Jaylon Johnson and especially CB2 Tyrique Stevenson have been exposed down the field. Jalen Coker finished as the WR1 overall in Week 1 by double-moving these two. The only issue is the Bears are down to their third-string QB, so this game has less shootout appeal. Philly has a 23.0-point team total (13th).

14. Jaylen Waddle (vs. LAR) - 57.5 proj. receiving yards

Waddle was schemed up often upon Week 1 review (I wrote about that last week), and then they doubled down on that in Week 2. He had two targets, two quick outs, three targets off of at-snap motion, one designed deep shot on a post route tied to a Bo Nix rollout and other targets. That's the good stuff. Coach Sean Payton also said it was their goal in the week to have no excuses in not getting him the ball. It felt that way. Waddle's 10 targets and 14.3 expected half PPR points from Week 2 (WR12) seem like the "real" baseline for Waddle, not whatever that was in Week 1.

The matchup is more neutral than anything. The Rams are well-coached and have stars in the secondary, but teams get stuck in heavy pass-attempt games often while in catch-up mode. They allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to WRs last year, then were rolled by the 49ers in Week 1 before shutting down Jameis Winston on Monday Night Football. The Broncos are projected for 21.0 points (19th) as slight home dogs on Sunday Night Football.

15. Tee Higgins (at PIT) - 53.5 proj. receiving yards

Higgins is averaging 105 air yards on a strong 25% target share through two weeks. The Bengals are still first in neutral pass rate, too, so big games are coming for Higgins. He's the WR12 in targets per game (8.0) and is simply 0-for with touchdowns. Higgins is the WR15 on WR10 usage since 2023 with Joe Burrow active as a baseline.

The Steelers are missing CB1 Joey Porter Jr. right now, and the rest of the secondary is beatable to me. Higgins has seven games since 2022 against the Steelers. His 85 yards per game are well above his career average. The Bengals' OL is in a better spot to handle the Steelers' pass-rushing depth in 2026, and the team total reflects that. Cincy projects for 23.0 points (12th) despite being on the road. Higgins is an upside WR2 as usual.

16. Tetairoa McMillan (at CLE) - 58.5 proj. receiving yards

The Panthers are an aggressive passing offense under new play-caller Brad Idzik. They're fourth in WR usage as a team, and that's essentially split evenly between McMillan and Jalen Coker only. They only use Xavier Legette and their TEs so much, so whenever the Panthers need to pass, the ball is funneled. McMillan is the WR25 on WR5 usage so far, so the #math suggests bigger days are coming as a positive regression candidate.

That said, the matchup is more mediocre than great. The Browns have CB1 Denzel Ward to track McMillan if they choose to, and the Browns offense has been so bad for so long that there may not be a need to pass like crazy in the second half. The Browns did get shelled by the Jaguars' WRs (mostly Parker Washington) in Week 1 but then handled the Buccaneers WRs last week. Carolina's 22.75-point team total is the 14th-most of Week 3.

17. Matthew Golden (vs. ATL) - 54.5 proj. receiving yards

Golden is the Packers' safety blanket, as a rocket-sprung Romeo Doubs X-receiver. This is not a primary downfield role at all. He's tied with Christian Watson for the fifth-most targets between 1-10 air yards. Golden has been running a ton of outs, slants and intermediate in-cuts. Through two weeks, he's WR11 in target share (22%) and the WR8 in expected half PPR points. Green Bay can't run the ball with their RBs and OL, and Jayden Reed (neck) is out indefinitely. I don't see why this will slow down. Golden's tape has been promising, and Jordan Love has been fantastic in every per-attempt metric for years. If the volume holds, Golden has top-20 fantasy WR potential. He's looking like one of the "league winner" picks. His production would've been much, much better in Week 2 if we got fantasy points for the two downfield penalties called on the man-coverage CB defending him. He routed everyone up all game.

The matchup is great, too. The Falcons are back to watchable with Michael Penix Jr. starting at QB again, and their defense is very gettable with EDGEs Jalon Walker (IR), James Pearce Jr. (suspended), and Samson Ebukam (out) missing. Falcons CB1 A.J. Terrell (IR) and SCB Billy Bowman (questionable) are also dealing with injuries. This is a blow-up spot. The Packers are projected for 23.5 points at home.

18. Mike Evans (vs. ARI) - 56.5 proj. receiving yards

Evans isn't going to be a super high-volume player in this bespoke passing offense, but the 49ers are first in EPA per dropback, first in team success rate and first in sack rate (0.0%) through two weeks. There certainly will be touchdowns. He had a goal-line one in Week 1, then was pushed out of bounds at the half-yard line in Week 2. He's only the WR43 in targets per game (5.0) on a 19% target share, but they will be valuable. He's the WR22 on WR42 usage early on. Assuming this hip injury is as minor as they claim, Evans can be counted on as a boom-bust WR2.

If you didn't notice, Jaxon Smith-Njigba went nuclear with Drew Lock against Arizona last week and Ladd McConkey was torching them in Week 1 before injury. Cardinals CB1 Will Johnson (IR) might be out for the year now, and Max Melton (DNP, toe) and SCB Garrett Wilson (limited, Achilles) are also injured. It's a really bad secondary right now — real bad. The 49ers project for 28.0 points (second).

19. Ladd McConkey (at BUF) - 54.5 proj. receiving yards

McConkey survived Week 2 without a setback but needed a rib injection to gut it out. He did little, like everyone else on the Chargers. The good news is he's the WR21 on WR38 usage and a 20% target share this year, despite missing an entire half. It'd be stunning if he's not a top-25 fantasy WR considering how bad the rest of the room is and how depleted their TE room is after placing David Njoku on IR and ruling Charlie Kolar out for weeks.

The bad news is some of the Chargers' problems — interior OL, boom-bust RBs, bad TE blocking, timing in a new offense — will be difficult to correct. Justin Herbert is also forcing some passes out of frustration and misplacing others.

It has to get better, right? Yes, but I have real doubts that the top 10 offense is coming anytime soon. We're hoping for average results at this point.

The matchup is a good one, though. The Bills have a solid top CB1 in Christian Benford, who will travel with top options, but it's unclear if he'll cover McConkey or Quentin Johnston. The rest of the secondary is fairly gettable, especially if they're in coverage for a ton of snaps. They've allowed the third-most fantasy points to WRs to open the year, allowing Amon-Ra St. Brown to go for 9-142-2 and Nico Collins to go for 7-75-1. The Chargers are 7-point dogs and should be forced into a ton of dropbacks.

20. Jameson Williams (vs. NYJ) - 54.5 proj. receiving yards

The Jameson Williams rollercoaster is a bumpy one, but he will play so much better than he has in the two games to start the year. He will have fewer layup targets with Sam LaPorta healthy, yet Williams' WR28 expected half PPR points are enough to keep the faith that the averages will warrant a weekly WR3 ranking. That just means living with a couple of WR5 outings before WR1 nirvana.

This is an eruption spot. The Lions are at home, projected for 27.0 points (fifth most) and host a secondary that doesn't have reliable outside corners. The Jets allowed 4-41-1 to Christian Watson last week and had multiple downfield DPI calls against Matthew Golden. Both are great comparisons for Williams' skillset.

21. Malik Nabers (vs. TEN) - 56.5 proj. receiving yards

Nabers slipped a couple of times in Week 1 but showed some straight-line juice. In Week 2, he left momentarily after dislocating his shoulder, one that has bothered him since college. He slipped on his first play after his shoulder injury and, in general, doesn't look as dynamic. He's still running his typical routes, some downfield and some underneath. Jameis Winston didn't see him wide open a few times off the bench, and then chucked a prayer to him in coverage. The tape is probably a tier below where I was expecting early on (maybe 80% himself), so the urge to call him a top-24 fantasy WR can be put on hold. He's the WR69 on WR40 usage through two weeks. He ran a route on 81% of dropbacks on MNF.

Since Week 10 of last year, the Titans have been the worst efficiency defense against fantasy WRs, averaging +13% fantasy points over expected on each target. They were shredded by DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks the week after new HC Robert Saleh said his defense was still figuring out the scheme. It's an excellent spot.

22. Rashee Rice (at MIA) - 48.5 proj. receiving yards

From 2023-25, Rice was targeted on 26% of his routes. When there was a screen called on those plays during that era, Rice was the recipient 44% of the time. Through two weeks, Rice has a 10% targets per route and only 23% of the screens have gone his way. The Chiefs are using both Kenneth Walker and Xavier Worthy more in that capacity, and I can see this holding for the short term.

Rice doesn't look 100% coming off a behind-bars rehab stint stemming from a clean-up procedure, and the Chiefs' ground game is cooking. Rice also mopped up some designed red-zone targets into scores in the past, and those are more likely to just go to the RB now. I doubt that Rice will only be the WR29 on WR66 usage like he's been through two weeks, but the time to panic about Rice's fantasy WR1 hopes was back in free agency when they signed Walker. It doesn't help that Rice has always been a very overrated player on tape, who consistently duds the second man coverage is called against him. His 3rd-and-7 drop in crunch time against an undrafted rookie SCB in Week 2 was more evidence of that. Rice is a boom-bust WR3 in normal matchups.

23. D.J. Moore (vs. LAC) - 49.5 proj. receiving yards

We'll learn more later in the week after a limited and DNP early in the week with his AC joint injury. I did see a practice clip of him catching the ball above his head, and they'll have an injection pre-game to manage the pain further. This assumes he starts and plays most of his snaps with higher risk of injury.

24. Jalen Coker (at CLE) - 61.5 proj. receiving yards

Coker is a very good football player. He has a great catch radius and explodes off the line to threaten vertically. There really aren't any weaknesses to his game right now, and the Panthers are a sneaky fun offense under a new playcaller this year. They are in the upper-right quadrant of neutral pace and neutral pass rate, and Carolina's WR3 and TE groups aren't very involved. Coker is the WR7 on WR7 usage to start the year. He's a no-doubt starter until proven otherwise, after he also went crazy in the Panthers' playoff loss to the Rams before that. He's averaging 19.0 half PPR points in his last four outings!!!

25. Josh Downs (vs. HOU) - 51.5 proj. receiving yards

Alec Pierce had a setback with his surgically-repaired heel/ankle, and we may not see him again this year. He'll be replaced by low-volume grinder Laquon Treadwell until newly-signed Darius Slayton gets acclimated, and the early returns from Keenan Allen have been quite suspect. The pass game has been good enough so far with Daniel Jones for a consolidated target tree for Downs and Tyler Warren. In five games with Alec Pierce out or seeing one target since 2024, Downs has a very startable 23.5% target share.

Downs did a hop, skip and a jump off the line against slot man coverage and was given some free releases off cheat motions to get him open quickly underneath. He's the WR21 in expected half PPR points through two weeks, seeing 13.8 expected half PPR points (WR14) last week.

The matchup is a very difficult one, however. The Texans were fifth-best against fantasy WRs last season, and when they've been beaten, it's almost always against big-bodied downfield threats like Pierce, Kayshon Boutte, Michael Wilson , Quentin Johnston, etc. Downs has a history with them himself. He posted 4-109-1 against them in Week 8 of 2024 (hell yeah), but he's been held to under 50 scoreless yards in his other four games. The Colts won't have Pierce and will have Daniel Jones this time around, so he should perform better than that. WR1s Ja'Marr Chase and DJ Moore both had 75+ yards with a score against them this year.

26. Deebo Samuel Sr. (vs. ARI) - 44.5 proj. receiving yards

The Niners are using Samuel just how they always have. He's mustered up a 22% target share with a lowly 3.3 average depth of target. He's had screens, backfield usage, a carry, quick outs of play action and the occasional intermediate target in both games as a near full-time player. San Francisco also lost WR3/4 Demarcus Robinson in Week 2, and Mike Evans (hip) is at least on the injury report with a minor issue. With San Francisco looking as potent as ever, this is a real fantasy football role to chase. Samuel is the WR26 on WR33 usage so far. There's not a "washed" component to his film right now while he's at full health.

27. Emeka Egbuka (vs. MIN) - 48.5 proj. receiving yards

The Vikings have been the best fantasy WR defense over their last 10 games:

28. Rashod Bateman (at DAL) - 45.5 proj. receiving yards

We nailed the call last week (WR10 on WR17 usage), and Zay Flowers (hamstring) isn't practicing again. The reality is the rest of the Ravens' skill group is so bad that there's no choice but to get Bateman more involved. He is a former first-round pick for what it's worth. He's not a total scrub on tape.

The matchup is also excellent. The Cowboys had coverage busts against the Giants, lost multiple starters in the back seven since then, and also allowed wide-open explosive opportunities to Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs on tape last week. I'm not threatened by Daron Bland, and CB2 Cobie Durant (hamstring) is also looking doubtful to play. It's easy to make the math work when the Ravens are projected for 28.0 points like they are here at home.

29. Devaughn Vele (vs. LV) - 48.5 proj. receiving yards

He's the WR16 on WR16 usage through two weeks with Tyler Shough dropping back at the highest rate per game on the No. 1 neutral pace offense. Vele has a positive matchup against the Raiders' secondary, and the Saints are projected for 23.25 points (11th). There are a lot worse WR3 dart throws. Over his last 4 games, Vele is the WR24 on WR24 usage, too.

30. Adonai Mitchell (at DET) - 47.5 proj. receiving yards

Mitchell has a 25% target share through two weeks. That is not going to hold, nor should it. Mitchell had two drops, a pretty bad play on the ball downfield and very up-and-down route running against man coverage. When he gets off coverage or is in the scramble drill, the results have been better. The good news is the Jets had him in motion for a target, he's playing almost every snap and will get the prayer chuck downfield. One of those led to a downfield DPI in Week 2. That type of role will lead to usable weeks, and it's definitely interesting enough to be a waiver wire addition in all Yahoo leagues. Mitchell is the WR32 on WR23 usage through two weeks in pretty easy matchups.

31. Khalil Shakir (vs. LAC) - 40.5 proj. receiving yards

Update: This assumes D.J. Moore (AC joint) will play and be close to his normal self with an injection, and that Keon Coleman (ankle) will be out after two DNPs.

Over the past four games, including the postseason last year when Moore wasn't on the team, Shakir is the WR24 on WR9 usage. He's the WR25 in expected half PPR points this season, too. The role is a real one, even if he's only playing in 3-WR set snaps. Buffalo is just a wagon right now.

The Bills are projected for 28.75 points (first) at home against a Chargers defense that has allowed coverage busts multiple times with a first-time DC calling plays. Tre Tucker caught them deep downfield multiple times last week, but it was slot WR Kendrick Bourne and TE Trey McBride who went crazy in Week 1. Star SCB Derwin James (finger) is not practicing again.

Metcalf looks #large right now. He's always been big of course, but this is a really, really big receiver who has not adjusted to catchable passes, nor ran by players enough. Christian Gonzalez erased him, and the Aaron Rodgers offense is officially off the rails. Pittsburgh is fourth in neutral pass rate and Metcalf is the WR9 in expected points and WR4 in targets, so there's still a path for relevance. But the QB, WR and OL are all disappointing in isolation. Only the Falcons have had an uglier pass game through two weeks.

33. Michael Wilson (at SF) - 44.5 proj. receiving yards

Wilson is better than Marvin Harrison Jr., and he's playing with better effort, too. The Cardinals rewarded him with both of the 1-WR set snaps in last week's loss, and he seems to be getting Jacoby Brisset's eyes more often early in the progression. It's only led to WR44 expected half PPR points, as Trey McBride has a bonkers 37% target share. Wilson is a positive regression candidate on his looks. Only 50% of his targets have been catchable, and the Brisset-to-Wilson connection was too good last year to not believe in it rebounding in easier matchups as a fantasy WR4.

The matchup with the 49ers is never an easy one, but if there's a team that's most equipped with slowing down TE Trey McBride, it's them now that LB Fred Warner is around. Last Week 11 with Brissett at QB, Wilson posted 185 yards against them. I think they go back to that well here, partially out of necessity. The Cardinals defense doesn't look ready for this elite 49ers offense. Garbage time will be competent here.

34. Denzel Boston (vs. CAR) - 48.5 proj. receiving yards

Boston looks very good as the Browns' full-time X receiver. He took a dig route against zone coverage to the house, launching two Bucs' defenders to the ground. He also had a back-shoulder fade for a first down where he showed late hands. Through two weeks, Boston has a 21% target share (WR30) and is the WR29 in expected half PPR points. There will be complete duds on the Browns, but Boston should be rostered in all formats and can be a risky WR3 if you're struggling at the position.

35. Stefon Diggs (vs. SEA) - 34.5 proj. receiving yards

Diggs looks like Diggs! He's the WR11 on WR12 usage through two weeks, on a healthy 23% target share. He is getting creative looks but also winning on his own. Marcus Mariota dropped a dime to him on a corner route between two defenders for a sick touchdown in the second half of last week, and Mariota has an argument for best backup QB in the NFL now that he's taking more risks late in his career. Diggs' involvement in the backfield, on choice routes and on quick outs provides him with some level of a floor on the WR3 border, even without Jayden Daniels (elbow) available. We just have to be careful given the state of the Commanders OL against difficult opponents. Speaking of...

The Seahawks are the second-best fantasy WR defense when adjusting for schedule since Week 10 of last year. They'll have elite SCB Nick Emmanwori in Diggs' general area, and I don't trust these backup offensive linemen with all of the funky things Seattle does defensively.

36. Jordan Addison (at TB) - 36.5 proj. receiving yards

37. Dontayvion Wicks (at CHI) - 41.5 proj. receiving yards

Dallas Goedert (MCL) is expected to be out a few weeks.

38. Tre Tucker (at NO) - 40.5 proj. receiving yards

We'll see if Brock Bowers (knee) can suit up, but this assumes he is back.

39. Malik Washington (vs. KC) - 35.5 proj. receiving yards

Washington is a near full-time player (82% routes), and it's possible third-round rookie Caleb Douglas (ankle, DNP with a walking boot) misses this week. That duo has soaked up 26% and 23% of the targets in polar opposite roles. As the slot, Washington is working underneath, while Douglas, Kevin Coleman Jr., and Chris Bell take the top off. Washington is unlikely to create many explosives, nor factor into the red zone plans, but Washington's PPR scam levels could reach a sweet spot here. He's the WR55 on WR32 usage through two weeks using half PPR scoring. He's the WR28 in targets per game (6.5).

40. Carnell Tate (at NYG) - 38.5 proj. receiving yards

41. Xavier Worthy (at MIA) - 37.5 proj. receiving yards

Worthy remains frustrating as a player. His game was saved in Week 2 by a coverage bust in the end zone, but the 4.2-speedster had a brutal drop over the middle without defenders near him, then dropped a play-action dart on a corner route on what could've been a touchdown. There are negative moments against press man coverage every week, and Tyquan Thornton has been hit deep far more often than Worthy has over the past two seasons.

That said, Worthy has a fantasy friendly role right now. The Chiefs threw him three bubble screens, two of which came near the end zone. Rice used to get them, but now he's blocking for them. There in theory could be more downfield success with Kenneth Walker dominating defenses on the ground, though that's more theoretical at this point. Worthy is a dart-throw WR3/4 after beginning the season as the WR48 on WR20 (!!!) usage in half PPR.

42. Romeo Doubs (at JAX) - 42.5 proj. receiving yards

Doubs was targeted four times in Week 2's decisive home win. He should've had a big yards after catch moment on a third-and-9 slant but Drake Maye missed him. He did have a screen for a first down, found space in a scramble drill and was left open for an explosive on a deep corner route in zone. That netted only 5.2 expected half PPR points (WR64), and he only ran a route on 75% of dropbacks with Mack Hollins, Pop Douglas, Kyle Williams and Efton Chism rotating at WR. He's a desperation play WR4/5. I hope we're not there yet. It's Week 3.

43. Chris Godwin (vs. MIN) - 35.5 proj. receiving yards

The Vikings have been the best fantasy WR defense over their last 10 games when adjusting for schedule.

44. Quentin Johnston (at BUF) - 35.5 proj. receiving yards

Johnston is not good enough to overcome playing 75% of the dropbacks, like he had in Week 2 when Ladd McConkey (ribs) was back out there. He dropped a Cover two hole shot near the sideline and has not been a friendly WR to throw to on other zone attempts this season. There will be random big gains, but please let me know if you have a good formula on when they're coming. I don't have those answers. The Chargers' timing of the play is just as bad as the isolated blocking reps right now, and that's not that unexpected given the freshness of the scheme. Johnston is the WR103 (!!!) on WR55 usage through two weeks. He's a bench hold for a bit longer.

45. Terry McLaurin (vs. SEA) - 42.5 proj. receiving yards

McLaurin was sadly inches away from a very big fantasy outing in Week 2. He had three targets in the end zone that went incomplete (including on a flea flicker) and a ticky-tack OPI called on him on a slant win. Only accumulating 6.0 half PPR points on 15.4 expected points is a real bummer, especially knowing we're getting Marcus Mariota now.

McLaurin has 10 games with Mariota attempting more than 10 pass attempts (most of these were starts). He has averaged 12.1 half PPR points (WR12) on WR15 usage and an 18% target share, leading to 104 air yards per game. Mariota has been more aggressive in recent years, and it's possible McLaurin can hold onto some fantasy relevance as we head into bye weeks. Those numbers are the absolute best outcome, however. The difference is the presence of Stefon Diggs, who is playing in a mini Amon-Ra St. Brown role under new OC David Blough. Diggs has a slightly higher target share through two weeks, 23% to 20%.

The Seahawks are the second-best fantasy WR defense when adjusting for schedule since Week 10 of last year. They'll have elite CB1 Devon Witherspoon in McLaurin's general area, and I don't trust these backup offensive linemen with all of the funky things Seattle does defensively.

46. KC Concepcion (vs. CAR) - 33.5 proj. receiving yards

Concepcion has flashed some downfield and intermediate moments on tape, and his speed is a stand out trait when given the chance to open up. He is primarily getting his receptions underneath right now. 36% of his targets have been screens, as the clear-cut top target in that category. He's tied with Denzel Boston with a 21.5% target share, but Boston is the priority on downfield and red zone looks right now. Neither are bankable with Harold Fannin Jr. also involved, yet both look very promising as a tandem with complementary skillsets. Concepcion is the WR61 on WR35 usage through two weeks. A big game is inevitable as a real WR4 in full PPR formats. He's worse in half PPR of course.

47. Courtland Sutton (vs. LAR) - 36.5 proj. receiving yards

48. Marvin Harrison Jr. (at SF) - 30.5 proj. receiving yards

After a week of normal practice, Odunze ran a route on 87% of Bears' dropbacks in Week 2's rainy loss to DC Brian Flores. It was an ugly game for all those involved, but Odunze being a near full-time player while Luther Burden maintains a more part-time role is a win for him long term. Unfortunately, Odunze at some point has to make more consistent plays himself. He only had a 13% target share in Week 2 and couldn't link up on a third-and-8 slant from a Caleb Williams ball that was high and wide. We'll see if Williams can play through his cart-worthy hamstring, but the results need to appear before trusting as a fantasy WR3. He hasn't hit 10 half PPR points in seven contests.

The Eagles have been a top-5 defense against fantasy WRs since Week 10 of last year, and Odunze will see the most of elite CB1 Quinyon Mitchell this time around. It's a difficult matchup for a backup QB to step into.

Burden's role is not that of a Round four fantasy selection right now. He's played 38% of the Bears' non 3-WR set snaps and has ran a route on 72% of all dropbacks. He's also not in the "Amon-Ra St. Brown" role, as he's playing more Z receiver in 3-WR set snaps than slot. That's leading receiver Kalif Raymond's job! Burden has a 9.5 yards average depth of target with just one screen on the season, so much of his work falls into the "earn it" category. That's led to a WR54 on WR39 usage start. There will be better days ahead once we can accept the re-set expectations. I still don't love the mental errors and occasional dropped pass on film either.

The Eagles have been a top-5 defense against fantasy WRs since Week 10 of last year. Burden will see a mix of elite CB1 Quinyon Mitchell, Pro Bowl slot CB Cooper DeJean and size/speed CB2 Riq Woolen. It's a difficult matchup for a backup QB to step into.

51. Kayshon Boutte (at IND) - 37.5 proj. receiving yards

52. Wan'Dale Robinson (at NYG) - 31.5 proj. receiving yards

53. Kendrick Bourne (at SF) - 26.5 proj. receiving yards

54. Jakobi Meyers (vs. NE) - 34.5 proj. receiving yards

55. Brian Thomas (vs. NE) - 36.5 proj. receiving yards

56. Rashid Shaheed (at WAS) - 26.5 proj. receiving yards

57. Xavier Hutchinson (at IND) - 38.5 proj. receiving yards

58. Keenan Allen (vs. HOU) - 32.5 proj. receiving yards

60. Tyquan Thornton (at MIA) - 19.5 proj. receiving yards