Fantasy Football: What should we believe from Week 1, for Week 2 and beyond?

I didn't decide to watch the TV show "Better Call Saul" until earlier this year. It was the offseason; I had free time, and it was long overdue. I loved "Breaking Bad", but I kept putting off watching Bob Odenkirk reprise his role as Saul Goodman because I already knew how it would end. I didn't need 63 episodes to tell me he was an immoral lawyer. But it's the "how" that got me hooked for six seasons (which I watched in about three weeks).

We just went through four days of NFL action. And in some cases, our box scores are telling us a convincing story. Whether good or bad, the results are final. We can't change where we wind up. However, the ancillary storylines may change our minds on whether we should believe Week 1 is indicative of what to expect for the rest of the season.

Of course, I was watching the Bengals game going on at the same time. But I had Parker Washington in a league and had over 10 PPR points midway through the first quarter.

There were five QBs to score more than 25.0 fantasy points. Trevor Lawrence was the only passer out of that group who didn't run for more than 50 yards or score using his legs. Only Josh Allen averaged more air yards per attempt (11.5 to 10.5). If there's anything to speak to the repeatability of Lawrence dismantling the Browns, it was the effortlessness of his high efficiency.

Passing Success Rate: 70.8%, 1st (among all Week 1 starters)

Completion Percentage Over Expected: +22.3%, 1st

Lawrence topped the lists of every advanced passing metric on just 23 attempts. That's the third-fewest of any QB to post similar numbers going back to 2020. He also had the "least help" from his receivers. At 3.4 YAC per reception, his depth and accuracy were more than enough to keep the Jaguars on schedule. But the sequencing is what will keep him in the top 10 discussion and have Chargers fans wishing the same was happening with their passer and playcaller.

On his second drive, Lawrence started in shotgun, threw two quick hitters to Brian Thomas Jr. and Washington, and then switched to the intermediate strikes on outbreakers. The two passes, resulting in a touchdown to Josh Cameron, came from under center play-action.

Sure, the Jaguars' ability to switch up and execute with any of their pass-catchers will have most managers frustrated week to week. But the production all intersects at Lawrence's right shoulder.

C.J. Stroud had one assignment coming into the year. Show us that the Divisional Round disaster was a fluke. And, on the whole, I'd say he passed the test.

Admittedly, losing two fumbles ( the second ending the game ) would sway anyone from my assessment. Houston needed its QB. He failed at the worst time. But Josh Allen almost did the same about 90 seconds earlier . Besides, the larger concern was whether Stroud could complete a forward pass after the last time we saw him.

Passing Success Rate: 51.2% (Week 1), 44.6% (2025)

I focused on obvious passing situations as Houston still relies on its running game on early downs. As a result, Stroud averaged 9.2 yards to go on third downs. But he still converted 42.9% of his attempts into a new series.

Stroud got pulled into a track meet against a former MVP, with only his WR1 and an unproven receiver corps behind him. With better matchups ahead (Colts, Cowboys, Titans), I'd bet on Stroud to be in the streaming discussion.

So, here's one way to frame Bucky Irving's Week 1. He only carried the ball eight times against a defense that finished 2025 allowing the third-most PPR PPG to RBs. Touchdowns are a strong deodorant for weak output. Plus, he couldn't keep his hands on the ball.

Again, that's one way you could look at Irving's trip to Cincinnati . The other paints a better, more sustainable picture.

Target Rate: 25.9%, 1st (out of all TB pass-catchers)

Seeing Irving as the RB1 wasn't a surprise. After Rachaad White 's departure and a healthy offseason, the starting job was as good as his. It was the fragility of the other parts of the job that warranted an ADP drop.

We considered Kenny Gainwell a direct threat after securing a 16% share in Pittsburgh last year. Nope. The former Eagle ran about half as many routes and earned just one target. Sure, Sean Tucker was inactive, but only Irving got the ball once the Bucs got into scoring position. With his workload looking more like his rookie season's, I'd expect bigger days from Irving in the coming weeks.

I've said it before, but fantasy production exists at the intersection of situation and talent. Unfortunately, I've got questions about both regarding MarShawn Lloyd.

I'll start with Lloyd's environment. Of course, it didn't help that his QB saw five or more rushers on an absurd 78.3% of his dropbacks . They had three drives with more than six plays. And Lloyd's position within the backfield wasn't much better.

Lloyd may have almost doubled Chris Brooks ' touch count, but all of his carries came on early downs. He ran fewer routes than Brooks and came off the field more often than the second-year rusher in the two-minute drill. And, as the above clip indicates, Lloyd did nothing to differentiate himself talent-wise.

Lloyd posted similar per-touch metrics as Brooks with twice as many opportunities. We may not know when (or if) Josh Jacobs will return to the lineup, but Lloyd's chances of being a reliable fantasy contributor already look bleak.

So, here's the good news about Jaylen Waddle's first game with the Broncos. First, he took the slot duties. He had his first 1,000-yard season as a rookie in Miami with a 60.1% slot snap rate.

Second, Waddle's receiving aDOT was 4.0 air yards. Bo Nix was fifth in EPA per dropback on short-area throws in '25. As we said all summer, the pairing was perfect. Apparently, it just needs time to mesh.

A key drop in an island game is a double whammy for Waddle, since more people were watching. The availability heuristic will have folks pointing back to that play for weeks. However, that's not the worst part of his debut.

You'd have to scroll past four other pass-catchers before you find Waddle's target total. And notice how I didn't specify a designation. Because if I say two WRs, an RB and a TE earned more looks than the guy Denver traded multiple picks to acquire, it sounds worse. Oh, and the Broncos' backup TE (University of Dayton's finest!) had the same number of targets.

The icing on the cake is neither Nix nor Davis Webb had an answer for DC Steve Spagnuolo's defense. Nix was under duress on 45.5% of his dropbacks. In long-down-and-distance situations, all of his throws were at or behind the LOS. And without a lesser opponent on the schedule for some time (at Carolina – Week 9), we're left to hope things change in a hurry.

But if I had Waddle on my roster, I'd look to other options on my team — or trade for reinforcements.

I can't win watching Bengals games. Because even if they walk away with a victory, there's at least one play that gives me another gray hair.

Two catches for 12 yards aren't what fantasy managers with the third overall pick signed up for each week. Even worse, this new look for the Bengals offense doesn't lean on its WRs as it has in years past.

RB Target Rate: 26.5% (2026), 17.0% (2025)

I like watching Mike Gesicki Griddy'ing in the end zone as much as the next person. But the veteran TE leading the entire receiver group breaks reality. Week 1 featured the second-lowest rate of passes thrown to a wide receiver in the Joe Burrow era (41.2%).

Regardless, at least for now, I'm not worried about No. 1. Nothing changed about Chase's on-field deployment. He was in the slot on 32.5% of his snaps. His route depth varied from deep go routes to quick hitches. And with all of the focus on Burrow using more under-center play-action, most will forget their only explosive from those looks came from a throw to Chase.

Give it time. Those two will find their rhythm soon.

I'm willing to wait until Thursday for Jameson Williams' breakout game.

Williams' first catch came within inches of crossing the scoring plane. But then, from drops to off-target throws, a promising start turned into a dud. However, it didn't stop Jared Goff from looking his way.

Williams led the Lions in air yards (54.2%), and only Amon-Ra St. Brown had more targets. And if Sunday was any indication, Detroit will have to keep up with every opponent as its defense struggles to limit yards.

Before Week 2's matchup start, try to trade for Williams.

Christian Watson is the embodiment of the " He Can't Keep Getting Away With It " meme. But it's fun to watch him do it.

My worry for Watson was that he wouldn't be able to take over some of the " Romeo Doubs " role. The Packers' WR1 accrued 48.1% of his yards last season on passes of 20 air yards or more. Fantasy managers need high valleys, not just high peaks. But even amidst the chaotic defensive approach, Watson wasn't just a downfield threat.

Half of his targets came in the short area of the field. Plus, with Matthew Golden taking the X-receiver looks, Watson could play off the LOS or in the slot. If Jordan Love has more time in the pocket, we'll likely see more deep shots. But to see this type of shift for Watson should boost our confidence about the ebbs and flows of his weekly receiver production.