AZ Snake Pit Reacts Survey: The Final Countdown

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Diamondbacks fans and fans across the country.

The D-backs have seventeen games left in the season. Perhaps more importantly, they have fourteen games left until the final series of 2026, against the Padres in San Diego. Indications are, that series will likely determine the third wild-card place in the National League post-season. Right now, the D-backs have a one-half game lead over the Padres, with the tiebreaker of the season series to be decided by the winner of the final set at Petco. The other five playoff spots largely seem set, so this is it, as far as excitement goes in the NL. But there are any number of factors that will go into the situation there, and what Arizona needs to do, to reach the post-season.

samath has been particularly keeping a weather eye on this situation, so I'll repost a couple of his comments regarding where things might be, and how we could get there.

There are five possible scenarios assuming no other teams enter the picture from either direction:

Diamondbacks > 3 up on Padres: Moot because they're already in

Diamondbacks 2-3 up on Padres: Just don't get swept

Within a game of each other: Whoever wins the series is in

Padres 2-3 up on Diamondbacks: Sweep to make the playoffs

Paders >3 up on Diamondbacks: Moot because they're already eliminated

Perhaps the most fascinating thing to me: If the two teams are tied entering the game before that series, that final game against the Rockies (and the Padres' game against the Dodgers) will literally not matter whatsoever.

Their remaining schedules are remarkably similar. Both play the Rockies at Coors and the Marlins at home. They each play one very good playoff team — Yankees and Dodgers — and one very bad team — Royals and Giants — leaving the remaining difference comparing the Rangers and Nationals. Three home series left for each. Here's how Fangraphs projects the Diamondbacks' remaining series to go:

Meanwhile, here's how they project the Padres' remaining series to go:

Adding it up, the Padres are projected to be 0.6 games better overall, and they're 0.5 games behind. The projections before the final series are dead even.

Of course, the above are simply "best guesses". It is not, in fact, possible for San Diego to win 1.3 of their 2 remaining games against Washington. It'll be zero, one, or two, impacting how things feel like they will play out down the stretch. But given the above, what do you think will happen over the Diamondbacks' and Padres' remaining games? Will we reach the final series in what's effectively a play-in series? Might the return of Corbin Burnes give the D-backs an edge down the stretch? Or will the struggles of Arizona's offense lead to them playing uphill baseball to the Battle of San Diego? Where will be be after the game of September 24?

That's what the poll below is for, and explain your choice in the comments…