Fantasy Football: Why we're in total panic-mode with Colston Loveland, Rashee Rice and more

Two weeks into the fantasy football season, we have officially reached the point where every bad box score starts to feel like a problem. But there is a difference between a player failing to produce and a player failing to earn opportunities. That is what I care about most when deciding whether it is actually time to panic.

Draft cost matters because expectations matter, but routes, targets, target share and the quality of those opportunities tells us a lot more about what is actually happening.

For this Panic Meter, the thresholds are simple: No Panic, Some Panic, Total Panic or Coping Corner. Not every slow start deserves the same level of concern.

Five targets. One catch. Three receiving yards. That's Loveland through two games.

For a player drafted inside the top-40 picks on Yahoo, there is no way to make that sound good.

There are at least a few signs that tell us this hasn't been a complete zero. Loveland has generated 12.27 expected PPR points compared to just 1.3 actual points and has already seen two end-zone targets. He also played 87% of Chicago's offensive snaps in Week 2.

So yes, he's on the field. Yes, he has left points out there. But even those expected points only come out to 6.13 per game. That's the part I keep coming back to. Positive regression only matters so much if the workload itself isn't strong enough.

You're clearly not dropping Loveland, but you absolutely need another playable tight end on your roster until this role improves. I need to see more routes and actual target earning, not just another game where he's on the field a ton — but barely involved.

If you only look at Rice's fantasy totals, you might wonder why he's even on this list. He has 22.2 PPR points through two games. He scored in Week 1. He went for 83 yards in Week 2.

Rice has turned those opportunities into 22.2 PPR points despite just 12.91 expected points. That production has covered up what has been a pretty underwhelming workload for a receiver drafted this high.

And Kansas City gave us plenty of passing volume in Week 2. The Chiefs had 51 dropbacks and threw for 382 yards. Travis Kelce had 11 targets, Kenneth Walker had 10, Xavier Worthy had seven and Rice had six.

That's where the concern comes from. This wasn't an offense that couldn't move the ball or couldn't create passing volume. There were targets available — Rice just wasn't commanding enough of them.

I'm not moving off the player just because of two games, but I am absolutely adjusting what I expect from him right now. Another touchdown doesn't solve this. I want to see Rice become a priority in this passing game again.

Pickens hasn't given fantasy managers much yet. Nine catches. 68 yards. No touchdowns. Just 15.8 PPR points through two weeks. But this is one where the process looks better than the results.

Pickens has already earned 14 targets and those opportunities have been worth 23.11 expected PPR points. He saw eight targets in Week 2 alone and caught six of them.

Dallas threw four touchdowns in that game. Pickens just didn't get one.

That's frustrating, but it's also why I don't want to overreact. I'm much more comfortable waiting on production when the player is still earning the football.

Through two games, Pickens owns roughly 23% of the Cowboys' targets in my data. That is enough involvement for me to stay patient, even if I'd still like to see stronger route participation and more explosive production.

I'm watching it, but I'm not worried enough to make a bad decision. If someone else sees the box scores and thinks Pickens has already failed, I'm interested in finding out how aggressively they're willing to move him.

My concern with Egbuka isn't really that Egbuka has been bad. He hasn't.

Through two games, he has 11 targets, eight catches, 79 yards and a touchdown. His 21.6 actual PPR points are basically right in line with his 23.01 expected points.

The problem is what has been happening around him.

Baker Mayfield has been disappointing to start the season and this Zac Robinson offense has looked bad. That's a pretty important piece of this conversation because there is only so much Egbuka can do if the passing game never finds any rhythm.

Week 2 is the perfect example. Egbuka finished with five targets and just 16 receiving yards. The touchdown saved his fantasy day.

That works for one week. I don't want to depend on it every week. So I'm at Some Panic with Egbuka.

The player still looks fine to me. The role hasn't disappeared. But I need Baker to play better and I need this passing offense to give Egbuka more chances to produce without requiring a touchdown to get there.

Jamo's two-game totals are a little misleading. He has 13 targets, six catches and 78 yards. He has scored 13.8 PPR points against 25.34 expected points.

That sounds like an obvious case of a guy who's just been unlucky.

Week 1? Maybe. He generated 19.53 expected PPR points in that game and only scored 8.5. That's the kind of gap where you can talk yourself into patience.

Week 2 is what changed this for me. Detroit dropped back 44 times. Jared Goff threw four touchdowns. Williams played 97% of the snaps and ran 40 routes.

You can give me all the routes and snaps in the world, but at some point the football has to find you. When an offense throws that much and scores that much and you're still sitting at just four targets, I have to pay attention.

And Detroit's defense has looked bad enough that this offense should continue finding itself in games where it has to keep scoring. That's a positive environment for pass catchers, but it also makes the lack of targets harder to ignore.

I'm not cutting Jamo, but I am absolutely adjusting expectations. If Detroit keeps getting pushed into scoring mode and Williams is still running this many routes without commanding the football, then this stops being a bad-luck conversation and starts becoming a role conversation.