Will Michael Malone, UNC basketball prove ACC poll, rankings wrong? Here are predictions

UNC basketball isn't projected to be a championship-caliber team in the ACC during the 2026-27 season.

According to analytics sites and the official ACC preseason poll, which was released by the league on Oct. 13, the Tar Heels have been picked to finish fifth in the 18-team league.

Selected by a panel of regional and national media, the 2026-27 poll has Duke as the favorite to win a third straight conference championship. No Tar Heels were selected for the preseason All-ACC teams.

Entering its first season under coach Michael Malone , an NBA champion with the Denver Nuggets , UNC has 11 newcomers on its roster to join senior forward Jarin Stevenson, senior guard Jaydon Young and sophomore guard Isaiah Denis. Utah transfer Terrence Brown, Virginia Tech transfer Neo Avdalas, N.C. State transfer Matt Able, international center Sayon Keita and freshman Maximo Adams are among the talented players joining the Tar Heels.

ACC basketball preseason predictions, poll 2026-27 season

First-place votes in parentheses , followed by total points

Here are the preseason All-ACC first and second teams.

UNC basketball ranking in USA TODAY coaches poll, AP Top 25

The USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 haven't been released, but those national rankings will be revealed before the regular season starts on Nov. 1. The Tar Heels dropped out of the final coaches poll and AP Top 25 at the conclusion of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

UNC debuted at No. 25 in the national polls ahead of the 2025-26 season, which was its lowest national ranking to start a season in 20 years. After winning the 2005 NCAA title, the Tar Heels entered the 2005-06 season unranked with a freshman class headlined by Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Bobby Frasor and Marcus Ginyard. That team won 23 games and was eliminated in the second round of the 2006 NCAA Tournament.

UNC basketball ranking on KenPom, Bart Torvik, EvanMiya analytics sites

The analytic sites aren't high on Michael Malone and the Tar Heels in the 2026-27 season. As of Oct. 13, UNC is 37th in KenPom, projected to finish fifth in the ACC. The Heels are 50th on Evan Miyakawa's site, projected to finish sixth in the ACC, and 45th in Bart Torvik's T-Rank Rankings, predicted to finish eighth in the ACC.

Rodd Baxley covers North Carolina Tar Heels athletics for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding UNC? Send them to rbaxley@usatodayco.com .