Texas State vs UTSA predictions: Why 2 writers differ in I-35 football picks for 2026

Since G.J. Kinne took control of the program prior to the 2023 season, Texas State football and UTSA have some striking similarities. Both programs are led by coaches with East Texas roots, as Roadrunners' seventh-year leader Jeff Traylor once coached Kinne at Gilmer High School.

UTSA and Texas State entered 2026 with identical 23-16 records over the previous three seasons and made financial push toward elite status in the Group of Six. The Bobcats won the past two in the series, including a 49-10 rout the last time the teams met in San Marcos, but the Roadrunners won the first five matchups. Naturally this week, bragging rights hang in the balance.

Both programs' hopes for 2026 rest on standout quarterbacks who turned down possible transfer opportunities at bigger programs, as Texas State's Brad Jackson and UTSA's Owen McCown stuck around for one more clash. Ahead of another matchup at 2:30 p.m. Saturday in scorching San Marcos, the stakes of the I-35 rivalry have never been higher.

Austin American-Statesman Texas State beat reporter Caleb Yum and San Antonio Express-News UTSA beat reporter Greg Luca make a case for each team's advantages and pick a winner.

Luca's case for UTSA: Now healthy after offseason surgery to heal a sports hernia and time to rest other injuries that nagged him last year, Owen McCown looked sharp in the Roadrunners' opener. With his mobility and athleticism unlocked again, UTSA will likely sprinkle in a little quarterback run game to keep Texas State off balance.

The Roadrunners seemed to adapt quickly to new offensive coordinator Rick Bowie, who implemented a couple of fresh Air Raid concepts and ushered in a shift away from the tight end-heavy sets that were previously hallmarks of Traylor's offense. Running back Will Henderson is an explosive threat because of his elite speed as a former state champion sprinter, and receiver David Amador gives the Roadrunners a versatile gadget option. Expect UTSA to have plenty of tricks up its sleeve, as well as a bevy of new plays that were kept safely out of sight in Week 1.

Yum's case for Texas State: Henderson is priority one for the Bobcats. In a perfect world, Texas State stops the run without committing extra men to the box, keeping enough bodies in the secondary to limit explosives through the air. It might sound like wishful thinking, but the Bobcats limited UT's running backs to 4.3 yards per rush last week on 30 carries - 3.4 without Hollywood Smothers' early 45-yard burst.

Even if the defense is forced to commit to stopping the ground game, McCown hasn't lit it up against Texas State in the past: he's averaged 162 passing yards on 50% completion in two losses. The Bobcats' secondary didn't perform well in Week 1, but they did face an elite receiving tandem. Defensive backs Ryan Nolan and cornerback Trez Moore are proven contributors, and this might be the most talented group of defensive backs Texas State has ever fielded. The pass rush should be better after playing a Texas tackle duo that could be playing in the NFL next season.

Yum's case for Texas State: Traylor has heaped praise on Bobcats quarterback Brad Jackson leading up to the game, for good reason. He accounted for three touchdowns in the last matchup and looked confident in Week 1 against a talented Texas defense. The San Antonio product gets homefield advantage and wide receivers Chris Dawn Jr. and Beau Sparks are deadly in one-on-one matchups, posing serious questions for the Roadrunners' secondary. Texas State's offensive line hasn't missed a beat, and running backs Jaylen Jenkins and Davian Jackson could be a menace, especially playing off the quarterback run game.

Texas State cannot afford to turn the ball over. The Bobcats need to convert in the red zone and avoid a close game - kicker Dylan Cunanan missed two relatively short field-goal attempts in Week 1.

Luca's case for UTSA: The case for UTSA's defense is thin, likely falling on the shoulders of the cornerbacks. The group is perhaps the deepest and most talented on the defense. JUCO transfer Asaad Chapman started in his UTSA debut last week, joining his talented twin brother Ahamad in the rotation. Oklahoma State transfer RJ Lester grabbed a starting spot he was supposed to claim last season if not for the discovery of a heart condition that sidelined him through his first year in the program. Zach Morris is finally healthy after being limited for most of his tenure at UTSA, and Jakevian Rodgers has continued to develop during his fourth year.

Starting safeties Elijah Newell and Cam Upshaw are unproven; the pass rush appears minimal beyond Cam Cooper, and the defensive line struggled with containment even against UTRGV. Sounds like a formula for disaster against Texas State, unless the corners can lock up. The next best bet is trying to hold in the red zone and praying for more missed field goals from the Bobcats.

Luca's case for UTSA: The Roadrunners' fan base can't afford to endure another slow start. In totality, UTSA's 7-6 campaigns the past two years have been fine, maintaining Traylor's streak of reaching a bowl in every year of his tenure. But the Roadrunners had to rally after opening 3-5 in 2024 and 3-4 last season, achieving some of their best moments with minimal buzz and fewer eyes on the program.

A win Saturday could fix three problems: the slow starts, the 3-10 road record the past two years, and the disappointment of two straight losses to the Bobcats. A setback with a sure loss at Texas looming next week would send the Roadrunners careening back toward the doldrums. For UTSA, this is the most important matchup in the history of the I-35 rivalry.

Yum's case for Texas State: Starting a season 0-2 is bad. That's obvious. More importantly, Texas State needs to prove it can handle strong midmajor competition if it wants to strengthen its - and the Pac-12's - case for a College Football Playoff berth.

After the Bobcats stagnated in 2025, Kinne revamped the defense, hoping to get past the seven- to eight-win benchmark that's become less impressive over the years. Jackson returned, along with his two 1,000-yard receivers. Texas State has no more excuses. Lose to UTSA - which looks to be the less-talented team on paper - at home, and it's fair to question whether the Bobcats' formula has run dry. North Texas is not an easy Week 3 opponent. Texas State could enter Pac-12 play 1-3, which would be a huge disappointment for a program that entered the season looking for a conference championship.