Week 9 Preview: From Wentz We Were

The Minnesota Vikings return home to U.S. Bank Stadium to face the Buffalo Bills in a rematch of the most memorable regular-season game in years: a thrilling 33-30 overtime road win in 2022.

Will the Vikings repeat their magic on Monday Night? Hey, can you believe it's already November? Time sure does fly, doesn't it?

There's not much more to say that I didn't cover a few days ago. To be honest, I'm exhausted by it all. Sitting here in Week 9, still sorting this mess out, is really an indictment of Kevin O'Connell and the entire offensive staff. Things need to be fixed, and fast.

The Kurt Warner film breakdown video below has been circulating here at the DN and across social media over the past few days. To recap, Kyler Murray has made some nice plays, but he's missing far too many opportunities. It simply hasn't been good enough, especially given the weak defenses he's been facing. Per ESPN's Bill Barnwell, Murray's 44.9 QBR through Week 8 ranks just 26th when adjusted for the cupcake units he's faced. In true Vikings fashion, the schedule was set up beautifully for the offense to find its rhythm before things got tougher, and we flushed the opportunity down the toilet. The last time we faced anything that resembled a "good" defense was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers five weeks ago.

As I'm writing this, it's official: Kevin O'Connell announced that Carson Wentz will start Monday night in place of the injured Murray. Max Brosmer will be the backup. Hmmm. Oh, I'll just say it: If Wentz plays well, barring an injury or trade, he'll remain the starter. I believe KOC may have said otherwise, but may I present, as Exhibit 1A, past statements about young quarterbacks and a fella named J.J. McCarthy.

Wentz should be an upgrade over his season in the system, given his proven ability to move the ball efficiently. He passed for over 300 yards twice in four starts last year before KOC famously threw him out there against the Chargers in Week 8, while uttering the famous words of Ivan Drago: "If he dies, he dies."

He also, of course, played essentially two games for us this year, going 23-for-39 (59%) for 276 yards (7.08 avg), 3 TDs, and 0 INTs (though a couple of possible ones were dropped). That's good for a 106.4 QB rating. That's…okay, but he'll need to do more if he's indeed the guy from here on out. Unlike Murray, he does have a proven track record of getting the ball to Justin Jefferson, at least. So that's something. No doubt Jefferson smiled when he heard the news.

Enter the Buffalo Bills, and, will you look at this, another weak defense for us to possibly step on a rake against. Yippee. They rank 23rd in EPA/play, 24th in points allowed (25.9), 24th in total yards allowed (352.1), and 30th in passing yards allowed (254.7). They're better against the run (10th), but that may be more about how easily teams have been able to pass against them.

Wentz should have opportunities against a porous Bills pass defense, so for goodness' sake, let's hope we can finally see some life. The fans need it, and, most of all, an overstressed defense needs it. The pressure to hold teams under 20 to have any shot at winning games, given an offense channeling leather-helmet-era output, has to take its toll.

Brian Flores and company face what may be their toughest challenge to date in containing Josh Allen and the Bills offense. The Lions are great, but Allen's mobility and ability to extend plays add an enormous challenge. While he may not be Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook III is no slouch, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and 101 yards per game. Their receiving corps is solid, if unspectacular. Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and old Viking nemesis D.J. Moore lead the wideouts, while tight end Dalton Kincaid leads the Bills in receiving yards per game (57.3) and can be a real red-zone menace.

But let's be real: the Bills offense is Josh Allen. For my money, he's the league's best quarterback, and he's playing like it. He's leading an attack that's 1st in EPA/play, 2nd in total yards, 2nd in yards per play, 3rd in rushing yards, and 10th in passing yards. They're also near the top of the league in red zone and 3rd-down percentages, respectively.

This is a true strength-vs.-strength battle against the Vikings' defense. They remain 1st in EPA/play, points per game, success rate allowed, Pass EPA/play, and passing yards allowed. They're only 2nd in yards allowed per game. What gives, Flores!?

Of course, we've been vulnerable to the run in a couple of games this year, and the unit's rankings took a hit after giving up a whopping 230 yards to the Lions last week. We're now 17th in rushing yards allowed per game and are giving up 4.5 yards per carry. If my concern level for the offense is a 10, I'd put this at a solid 2 right now. They'll get this straightened out soon enough, but, as noted, this week will bring another challenge.

Indeed, you'd think the two priorities for this week would be, first, to keep Cook contained on early downs, which would repeatedly force Allen and the Bills' offense into the pressure cooker of 3rd-and-long against the blitz and our elite coverage unit. Second, to (as much as possible) keep Allen contained in the pocket in those likely passing situations. If he buys himself time outside the pocket, more often than not you're toast.

Conversely, I'd be shocked if the Bills don't test our shaky run defense early and often in this one to avoid those very scenarios. In addition, what makes the Bills' offense so dangerous is their ability to convert 4th-and-short situations with Allen, who, at over 6' 5" and nearly 240 pounds, is nearly impossible to stuff at the line of scrimmage. This can not only extend drives but also frustrate and demoralize a defense.

If we're to win this one, I can't see us doing it without creating a turnover or two. The good news is that Allen does suffer from a bit of Stafforditis – i.e., elite QBs who are prone to throwing some head-scratching INTs. Hopefully, the pressure Flores will bring will help. James Cook has also had problems holding onto the ball this year, with four fumbles already, so there's that, too.

Wentz starting gives me a bit more confidence we can pull off the upset, but I can't, in good conscience, pick the Vikings to win this game until I see something – anything – that resembles consistency from the offense. Scoring 24 points consistently shouldn't be this difficult with our skill players. Wentz did make the most of the short fields the Packers gave us in Week 1, getting us to 39 points. Sure, there were TD drives of 1 play for 1 yard, 3 plays for 14 yards, and 6 plays for 28 yards. But we also had a 9-play, 83-yard scoring drive! It's like the '98 Vikings and '99 Rams rolled into one!

Holding Allen and the Bills offense under 20 in this game may require Flores to paint another masterpiece like the Week 17 game against the Lions last year at U.S. Bank Stadium. Can it happen? Absolutely. Will it happen? Ehhh, you can't count on it. Regardless, it'd be nice not to have to rely on that every week, wouldn't it?

My guess: Wentz injects some much-needed life into the offense, but we come up short. Reverse psychology initiated.