5 redrawn House districts to watch one week out

▪ Israelis vote in referendum on Netanyahu

Democrats are overwhelming favorites to win back control of the House next week. Less certain is whether a Republican redraw of congressional districts in some states will curb the Democratic margin.

The national redistricting battle that began last year appeared to position the GOP to pick up seats in more than half a dozen states. But the political environment has changed since then, and seats that seemed to be almost automatic flips for Republicans now are at least competitive or even leaning toward Democrats.

How these races play out on election night could be telling for how the rest of the evening will play out nationwide. Here’s five redrawn districts to keep an eye on:

Rep. Shomari Figures (D) seemed almost certain to see his congressional career end after courts allowed Alabama to go forward with a new map. His 2nd District was molded to no longer include certain key majority Black areas.

He’s still facing an uphill battle against GOP state Rep. Rhett Marques , but it’s a fight. Multiple election forecasters rate the race as “lean Republican,” and a few polls have shown the race neck and neck.

Those polls were mostly sponsored by Democrats, raising some doubts about how much to read into them. Of all Democratic incumbents seeking reelection, Figures is probably facing the biggest hurdle.

If he loses, it’ll just be an indication that the expected enthusiasm advantage for Democrats wasn’t enough to beat the odds in red districts. If this race stays blue, Democrats could be in for a big night.

After Figures, the incumbent Democrat facing the next biggest challenge is likely Rep. Darren Soto , who faces military veteran Dan Green .

Other Democrats such as Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz are running in districts that are somewhat more conservative than they’ve previously experienced but are still considered to have at least a coin flip’s chance at winning.

Soto’s district was moved much more significantly to the right and would have voted for President Trump by 17 points in 2024. If Soto is able to win in the majority-Hispanic district, it’ll likely be thanks to a surge of Hispanic voters breaking with the GOP after having backed Trump.

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) and Cook Political Report split on who is more likely to hang on between Figures and Soto.

DDHQ gives Soto a nearly 40 percent chance of winning and Figures only a 25 percent chance. Cook Political Report acknowledges Soto outran former Vice President Kamala Harris by 9 points but rates the race “likely Republican.”

North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District

North Carolina’s redistricting focused on a single district the GOP has failed to flip before, and it’s anyone’s race.

Democratic Rep. Don Davis is facing Republican Laurie Buckhout in a rematch of their contest from two years ago, when Davis won by less than 2 points.

The election is one of the most expensive House races in the country, and Republicans are hoping to finally pick off Davis. But DDHQ lists Davis as the favorite. And Cook Political Report notes in its analysis that the “wide” enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans this year gives Davis a good shot at winning.

The Buckeye State is a bit of a unique case in that state lawmakers were required to redraw the state’s districts, and Democrats and Republicans reached a deal on the new map that only narrowly shifted two districts to the right.

Rep. Greg Landsman (D) is favored to win in Ohio’s 1st district, but Democrats are hoping to hold onto the other district impacted as well.

Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur is running in her most challenging race of her 40-year career in a district that would have voted for Trump by 11 points. She’s been a target of the GOP for the past few cycles, including two years ago when she only won reelection by less than 1 point. She’s facing Republican Derek Merrin in a rematch of the 2024 contest.

Kaptur has significantly outraised and outspent Merrin, and DDHQ gives her a 72 percent chance of winning.

The Lone Star State kicked off the redistricting war when it redrew its map to help Republicans pick up five additional seats in November. But what once seemed to be a certainty is now far from it.

The GOP is expected to pick up open seats being vacated by Democratic Reps. Al Green and Julie Johnson , who both lost primary bids against fellow Democrats rather than run in districts they would be almost certain to lose in November. A district that’s much more in question is Texas’s 35th Congressional District, which was completely redrawn, forcing Rep. Greg Casar (D) to run in an entirely different district.

Polling has shown a tight race between the Democratic nominee, Bexar County sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia , and Republican Carlos De La Cruz , the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas). One survey this month from Emerson College Polling showed Garcia ahead by 2 points, while another from The Washington Post had De La Cruz up 1 point.

The closeness caused Cook Political Report to shift its rating of the race from “lean Republican” to “toss up” on Friday, also pointing to the statewide dynamics at play. Similar to Florida, the race may come down to Hispanic voter sentiment.

▪ The Washington Post : Redistricting may take out some rising Latino GOP stars.

▪ Semafor : Where Democrats think Republican gerrymandering will backfire.

House Republicans will hold their leadership election on Nov. 10, a week after Election Day, to decide which members will hold the top positions in the conference. The vote could be a test of Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) leadership as the lower chamber is expected to flip to Democrats.

An Illinois man was charged with allegedly sending letters containing a white substance to four members of Congress this month along with threatening communications. He told FBI agents that he sent the letters, but he has denied involvement in the dozens of other incidents lawmakers have reported in recent weeks.

A federal judge has extended a preliminary injunction indefinitely to block the Trump administration from cutting down more trees from East Potomac Park, which the president has pushed to overhaul to create a professional golf course. The extension came shortly before the judge’s original block was set to expire .

Former FBI Director James Comey speaks to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington, Dec. 17, 2018. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

THIRD TIME’S A CHARM? Charges were unveiled for the third time Monday against former FBI Director James Comey , marking the latest attempt from the Department of Justice (DOJ) to prosecute the high-profile Trump adversary.

He is accused of disclosing national defense information in 2016, when he led the bureau. He was charged on Oct. 5, but a federal judge granted his request to unseal the complaint Monday.

Comey denies any wrongdoing. His lawyers filed a motion to dismiss the case, noting the case had previously been investigated by two U.S. attorneys who declined to bring charges.

Comey is separately facing federal charges in North Carolina related to a now-deleted social media post of seashells arranged to read “86 47,” which the DOJ has claimed was a threat against Trump. The first attempt to prosecute Comey over allegedly lying to Congress in 2020 fell apart after the U.S. attorney who brought the case was found to have been unlawfully appointed.

The revelation of the charges came as another federal judge ruled Monday that the DOJ unlawfully terminated Comey’s daughter, Maurene Comey , from her role in the department, rejecting the Trump administration’s arguments that it had a constitutional authority to fire her.

▪ The Hill : Bill Pulte vows action against ‘abusive monopolies’ in mortgage market.

▪ KDVR : Tina Peters planning Supreme Court appeal.

WE, THE PEOPLE : Six individual citizens, representing the audiences of news media, filed a lawsuit against the president and his top aides Monday over the White House’s restrictions on the press, saying a media ban deprives them of news.

The six individuals include a civics teacher, a legal journalist, a student journalist, a human rights advocate, a historian and a media watchdog. Trump is named in the lawsuit , along with chief of staff Susie Wiles , communications director Steven Cheung and Secret Service director Sean Curran .

The lawsuit notes that the news organizations whose White House access has been restricted over “unfair” reporting are right to sue over their First Amendment rights, adding, “The ultimate injury here, however, is to the democratic public.”

▪ The Hill : Trump administration sued over refugee policy changes.

▪ The Hill : Trump slams Bill Maher as ‘coward’ after dinner.

FACING QUESTIONS: The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has asked executives at AI giant Anthropic, the maker of Claude, to testify as part of the agency’s consumer harm probe into the firm’s AI models, an FTC spokesperson confirmed to The Hill’s Miranda Nazzaro on Monday.

The agency is investigating both Anthropic and OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, over the potential risks their AI models pose to consumers. The FTC sent both companies subpoenas nearly two weeks ago. The agency spokesperson did not confirm whether executives at OpenAI were similarly asked to testify in the investigation.

The latest demand in the investigation came after Anthropic publicly filed for an initial public offering (IPO) earlier Monday, bringing the firm one step closer to becoming the first large frontier AI lab to go public. The New York Times reported that the IPO could be the largest ever.

▪ The Hill : Claude reportedly bypassed paywall to access Georgia voter data.

▪ The Hill : NBA partners with Kalshi, Polymarket.

The president will travel to Corpus Christi, Texas, to deliver remarks at 3 p.m. EDT. He will then travel to Lubbock, Texas, for remarks at 7 p.m. EDT before returning to Washington.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban attends the electoral campaign closing rally of the governing Fidesz in Budapest, Hungary, on April 11, 2026. (Denes Erdos, Associated Press)

TOUGH CROWD : World leaders have resoundingly scoffed at reports that Trump is considering nominating his ally Viktor Orbán , the former prime minister of Hungary, for the job of United Nations secretary-general.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the prospect “funny,” according to Politico, and added that, “just a moment ago, he was a candidate for president of the European Commission,” referring to a previous claim that Orbán would become president of the commission.

Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha made clear his opposition to the idea, writing on social media, “I am certain that Viktor Orbán, as UN Secretary-General, would put to good use the masterful veto and blackmail skills he has developed over years of derailing major EU decisions.”

Shashi Tharoor , a senior leader of the Indian opposition Congress Party and former secretary-general candidate, speculated about the odds that Orbán gets the necessary number of votes from nonpermanent members of the U.N. Security Council, writing, “I wouldn’t rate them too highly!”

The candidate for U.N. secretary-general must have support from nine of the 15 members of the council, including from all five permanent members — China, France, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S. — which have veto power.

The Wall Street Journal, citing sources from three countries , reported that the U.S. has encouraged Orbán to throw his hat in the ring for the position. A State Department official told the Journal that there are already eight votes on the council for Orbán and that 10 of the 15 members are within reach.

The high threshold demanded of candidates, paired with the vast differences between the veto-wielding permanent members of the council, has made finding candidates who fit the bill particularly difficult. There are currently seven nominees listed on the U.N.’s website as top contenders for the post, and Orbán is not among them.

▪ The Hill : Trump says Brazil’s election results ‘looked rigged.’

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the Likud party, gestures to supporters as security personnel surround him during a campaign appearance at a market in Tel Aviv, Israel, Oct. 22, 2026, ahead of the country’s general election. (Ariel Schalit, Associated Press)

MOMENT OF TRUTH : Israelis are going to the polls Tuesday in the first national elections since the Oct 7, 2023, terrorist attack devastated the country and triggered three years of multi-front wars.

The Hill’s Laura Kelly is in Israel this week and sends this preview.

The vote is widely viewed as a referendum on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanayu ’s handling of the worst attack in the country’s history and Israel’s path forward.

It’s not likely that Netanyahu’s Likud party or those challenging him will achieve enough votes to determine decisive winners at the close of polls.

An estimated 30 percent of Israeli voters are reportedly going to the polls undecided .

Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, requires a 61-seat majority out of the total 120 seats. Popular parties are not expected to win 61 seats from national elections but instead do the hard work of compromise to form coalitions, which is expected to take weeks.

Netanyahu’s main challenger is a bereaved former general, Gadi Eisenkot , who shares many of the same security views as Netanyahu and Israel’s conservative right.

But supporters of Eisenkot’s Yashar party view him as a necessary change in leadership, committing to investigate the intelligence and security failures of Oct. 7, which Netanyahu has refused to do. Eisenkot’s personal loss — his son and nephew were killed in the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip — endeared him to many voters who have suffered profound loss.

The future security of the country informs nearly all the major issues for Israeli voters but has little to do with addressing or legitimizing international criticism against the country. Most Israelis remain opposed to a peace deal with the Palestinians and support its aggressive posture toward Iran.

Netanyahu’s opponents criticize him as too restrained in dealing with Hamas in the Gaza Strip over the years, and blame that stance for the massacre of 1,200 people and abduction of 250 more from southern Israel on that October day in 2023.

They also blame him for appeasing the ultra-Orthodox community, exempting them from military and national service — a policy Eisenkot has promised to change.

But those supporting Netanyahu say he’s the only person who can combat Israel’s enemies and confront those countries, in particular Europe, that condemn Israel for genocide against Palestinians.

Israeli voter turnout in the last election was about 70 percent, and this election is expected to meet or surpass that number. Israel requires in person voting and an estimated 67,000 Israelis returned to the country to cast their ballot.

▪ The Associated Press : A look at the main issues in the Israeli elections.

▪ NPR : Israelis have changed. Will they change leadership?

This is bigger than Brazil , Vanessa Barbera writes in The New York Times.

These Republicans could help the GOP by losing , Gerard Baker writes in The Wall Street Journal.

President Trump and first lady Melania Trump greet families and hand out candy during a Halloween event on the South Lawn of the White House, Oct. 30, 2025, in Washington. (Jacquelyn Martin, Associated Press)

And finally … First lady Melania Trump ‘s office announced the White House’s plans for the annual Halloween celebration Monday, revealing the event will also be designed to gin up support for Trump Accounts.

The president and first lady will hand out commemorative candies Thursday on the South Lawn for the event that typically draws thousands. Children will also receive coloring books from the Treasury Department to promote the Trump Accounts, which launched earlier this year.

The program provides savings accounts for anyone with a Social Security number under the age of 18. Those born between Jan. 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2028, also receive a one-time $1,000 deposit. The administration began auto-enrolling children earlier this month.

The first lady’s “Be Best” initiative will also be part of the Halloween festivities, as the U.S. Postal Service will provide toy mail trucks and oversee a “Be Best post card station” for children.