TSN Archives: Is LeBron James overrated? (May 26, 2003, issue)

This story, by staff writer Sean Deveney first appeared in the May 26, 2003, issue of The Sporting News under the headline "Ready for prime time | LeBron James will be taken first in the draft, his team determined in a lottery shifted to nighttime to capitalize on his popularity, but his No. 1 status likely has as much to do with ticket sales as talent."

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to this installment of The Drafting Game, the annual reality program that finds the most eligible basketball bachelors in the country—or, world—and matches them with the hopeful dregs of American professional basketball. Three (very) young men have been selected among hundreds of hopefuls, and soon a contestant will be chosen to pick among these three. That contestant will be carefully selected through a well-monitored and entirely honest system (we would never, ever accuse anyone of rigging The Drafting Game, of course). Now, ladies and gentlemen, let's meet the bachelors!

Words and excitement are not terms usually associated with the NBA draft lottery—try "mandate" and "nap-worthy"—but, without question, 2003 will be different. This year, there is hoopla. There is hullabaloo. Usually, the lottery is awkwardly wedged into the halftime show of a Sunday afternoon playoff broadcast, but this year it has been stretched into a half-hour, prime-time show, a drama (working title: The Elgin Baylor Chronicles) that ABC will put up against Thursday night staples Friends and CSI.

There's only one reason this lottery has landed in prime time: It's the LeBron-a-thon, and the TV network is Exhibit A in the case for Akron prep star LeBron James as the No. 1 pick in the draft. The sports-loving nation is so intrigued by his potential that ABC thinks it can knock off the small-screen heavyweights with 30 minutes of David Stern opening envelopes. Such is the hype and delusion around James that there is not much chance of there being any rational thinking when it comes to making the first pick.

"Imagine the team with the top pick taking someone other than James. It can't happen. James has played in three high school all-star games and sold out all three. Where the EA Sports Roundball Classic drew 5,712 fans to Northwestern University in Evanston, Ill., two years ago, it drew 19,678 at Chicago's United Center in March. That's the power of James."

"Who knows how good he is?" says Michael Lynn, the managing editor of Team Marketing Report. "But it doesn't matter. It's impossible to put a number on his impact until after you draft him, but whoever has him is going to sell season-ticket packages. They're going to sell out games. They're going to sell parking, concessions, shirts, hats, merchandise, everything. You will sell all that before the season starts. If he is any good, it will just mushroom from there. It will be close to Michael Jordan coming back for Washington."

Thus, the possibility of a kit-shake for picks 1a and 1b—in particular order: Syracuse freshman Carmelo Anthony and Yugoslavian forward Darko Milicic—is out the window. There is too much money to be made from James. Both Anthony and Darko deserve better. James may be the clear No. 1, but what is not clear is whether that choice is based on athletic potential or marketing potential. "You'd have to work out all three, at least, to compare them," one college coach said. "And my best guess would be that it would be close, but James might not come out on top."

Thus, we at TSN have got together The Drafting Game—plan evaluations of the top three prospects, untrammeled by economics, line of hype and assembled with the belief that the draft should not be a popularity contest.

He says he is a sucker for old-fashioned things (especially sports jerseys) and even owns his own SUV—though he points out that he is much better at driving the lane than driving near parked cars. His hobbies include a headband collection, participating in lively debates on shoe contracts and referring to himself in the third person. Fellas, let's meet LeBron!

Is it all SUVs and headbands with James, or will he make his mark with substance and sweat? We'll see.

"You have to remember that he was one of the top high school football prospects in the country as a wide receiver last year," says draft expert Chris Monroe of Akron Draft News. "He is a great athlete. He can play point guard, shooting guard or small forward, and it's that versatility that makes him the No. 1 pick."

LeBron says: "My last year in high school, we played the best teams in the country. I played 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7–10 players all my senior year. I'd play my game and just keep the work ethic that I have. I'll be successful at the next level."

Best-case scenario: Magic Johnson meets Tracy McGrady; worst-case scenario: Derrick Coleman meets Ricky Davis.

The skinny: At this point, James has more ability than any prep player who previously has made the jump to the NBA, with the possible exception of Kevin Garnett. Even at 6-8, 240 pounds, James can handle the ball, cross up defenders and blow by them with his unpredictable first step. He is a first-rate passer with a knack for the cutting, and he scores with McGrady and Kobe Bryant as the country's best finishers at the rim.

Two aspects of James' game that most often are questioned are his shooting and his defense. But playing against high school competition, he rarely had to defend a player with comparable skills, so his defense is an unknown, not a negative. He has the physical tools to become a very good defender, just as Garnett, Bryant and McGrady have. His shot is streakier, and because of that, he probably will struggle early in his career. He must work on it.

That's the other unknown about James: his willingness to work. It's going to take many practice court sessions to improve his game. Never has there been as pampered a top pick in the league, and whether James finds time in his off-court schedule to improve as a player remains to be seen. But it's work that separates a guy such as Bryant from a guy such as Davis.

He was a big man on campus last year, and though he is laid-back, he certainly is not "Melo" when it comes to big-time performances. He promises he would never stand you up, unless it was in the past. If he were to give you a gift, it would be a ring—just don't ask for that big gold one he got from the NCAA. Now, let's meet Carmelo!

Carmelo says: "Of course I would take me No. 1. What kind of player would I be if I didn't?"

Best-case scenario: Chris Webber on the wing, only without the baggage; worst-case scenario: A skinnier Glenn Robinson.

The skinny: They call him Mello, and not just because of his first name—Carmelo Anthony really is a laid-back guy. So laid-back, in fact, that some scouts weren't sure he had the fire to succeed at the next level. "Then came the tournament," one front-office executive says. "He made a lot of people into believers."

With the 6-8, 220-pound Anthony leading Syracuse's run to the NCAA championship in April, whisperers around the NBA premiere that he could, perhaps, displace James as the league's top pick. He earned more recognition but also earned a reputation as a player who had guts and chutzpah. Teams can only hope Milicic and James have those qualities. The No. 1 chatter has faded, though Anthony is not sure why.

"To me, I had the chance to play on the big stage," Anthony says. "Everybody saw us. And we won."

The biggest disadvantage Anthony has is that he is a pure small forward, not possessing the versatility and explosive burst that James has.

and not wide enough to be a low-post banger. Darko what? Look around the league, and there are few 6-foot-8 small forwards, players who have the size, athleticism and shooting range to play 15 to 20 feet from the hoop, combined with the savvy to operate in the post when mismatches come. Players who have those abilities—Antoine Walker or Tim Duncan, for example—often misuse them.

Anthony can hit the midrange jumper much better than James. He is an underrated passer and could one day play a point forward role, the way Jamal Mashburn or Scottie Pippen did. Like James, his defense should be called an unknown, not a negative, because Syracuse played a 2-3 zone.

And don't forget that when Anthony was in high school two years ago at Oak Hill Academy, he put 34 points on James and the St. Vincent-St. Mary squad. "I remember that like it was yesterday," Anthony says. "I usually remember that: we won, though."

Now, folks, Bachelor No. 3 is tall, Darko and handsome but does not say much—in English, at least—which only adds to his status as an international man of mystery. His hobbies include eating cevapcici (don't worry, it's just sausage), putting on weight and correcting people who mispronounce his last name. Let's hear it for Darko!

Darko says: "I have not seen LeBron James play, but he is playing against kids his age or younger. I am going against 30-year-old men every day."

Best-case scenario: Toni Kukoc meets Kevin Garnett; worst-case scenario: Shawn Bradley meets Nikoloz Tskitishvili.

The skinny: Take everything you think you know about European big men—a little awkward, soft defensively, slow—and throw it out. That's not Milicic.

"He's the real deal," says former Ohio State center Slobodan Savic, now playing for Crvena Zvezda in Yugoslavia. "I have seen LeBron, and I have played against Darko. It's a tough call, but Darko is a legit 7-footer who can shoot, handle, pass, and he is only 17. It's hard to describe the kid to you unless you see him."

Savic isn't alone in his praise. One NBA GM, speaking off the record, said comparing James with Milicic, who measures 7-0, 250 pounds: "Milicic is not going to sell tickets, no matter how good he is. But as Detroit president Joe Dumars says, 'If we draft Darko and put him into an American high school for a whole season, it would be ridiculous. It would be a joke. That is how good he is.'"

Still, Milicic may be the best player in the draft. He is not the athlete James and Anthony are, but he is a good shooter whose game is more suited to the NBA than to the European league. He would be lethal in NBA pick-and-rolls, and he is athletic enough to create off of isolations, which are not common in European basketball. He also can run the floor and finish fast breaks.

Milicic has the inclination to play tough interior defense, but he does not yet have the body. He can be pushed off the block, though he often manages to get a hand on shots. He has to work on some fundamentals, like holding the ball high after rebounds to keep from being stripped by stronger players. He'll need work, but the finished product could be every bit as good as James, only in a 7-foot frame.

Milicic might be the most skilled player in the draft and is athletic enough to get his own shot.

There you have it, folks—LeBron and these two other guys, our beloved bachelors. Now, all we need to do is select our contestants. Be sure to tune in Thursday for the stunning conclusion of ... The Drafting Game!