NBA dark-horse contenders? Raptors, Warriors among teams that could make unexpected run

Somehow, someway, we are only days away from the onslaught of media day and the opening of training camps in the NBA. A summer full of ideas, concepts, defensive schemes and drawn-up sets is closer to coming to fruition. Optimism can come and go, but this is the time of year where you can say the majority of teams are going to feel the most hopeful.

My mind starts to think about the contenders. Not just the Knicks , Spurs , and Thunders of the world, but the dark-horse contenders — the teams who believe they can make that leap. And whether it was last year's 60-win Pistons , the 64-win Cavaliers from two years ago, or the 51-win Grizzlies from 2022-23, someone always emerges.

And that's the beauty of basketball, it's not black and white, it's full of gray. No matter what it feels like, there truly is no one way to win. So here is my dice roll on some teams — whether they are already good and are being slept on, or that I think could get better throughout the season — that maybe, just maybe, just maybe could make a deep run in the playoffs.

It's not a gigantic surprise that a team featuring Kawhi Leonard may not only have championship aspirations but a route to get it done. He's quite literally done this in Toronto once before, and I'm not sure people get how much better the Raptors got over the course of last season. There's a reason they took Cleveland to seven games in the first round.

The regular season may have to get managed with Leonard, but his presence and self-creation should stabilize and elevate the Raptors in the half-court. His ability to draw the attention from the defense should pay dividends. I thought Brandon Ingram was great for the Raptors last year, but he had to make a lot of shots before defenses would blink. Not the same here.

Toronto can also offer different lineup combinations where RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickly have additional opportunities to shine (and they will be key). And none of what Kawhi does should disrupt or interrupt the continued growth of Scottie Barnes . Both can do a little bit of everything offensively and be moved around the board, attacking matchups and keeping pressure on teams in different ways.

The big key is going to be how much better this defense gets, not only in the regular season but in the playoffs. Having to deal with Leonard, Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles over the course of a playoff series does not seem like the most fun. The Raptors were already an active, physical group. Having ball pressure with Kawhi off-ball and able to either a) grizzly-bear swipe at drives or b) switch late in the shot clock could cause problems for offenses.

Yes, I can feel some version of a smirk through this screen, but hear me out. There is only one team that won two games against the New York Knicks during their playoff run, and that was the Hawks. Knicks fans have earned the right to play Empire State of Mind and N.Y. State of Mind and make as many rapper hand motions as they want, but CJ McCollum had them stressed out. That should not be lost to history.

The playoff questions are not going away, but the Hawks played offense with conviction: good pace and good tempo, and that became dangerous to deal with. When they get stops, opponents can find themselves caught playing their style, getting up and down the court, and, before they know it, there is a quick 10 points dropped on them.

Jalen Johnson improved last year, and part of why McCollum and Nickeil Alexander-Walker were so important was so that Johnson was not asked or required to make every play or read. What does this team look like if he gets better in that area? More drives, a greater ability to attack more matchups, more comfort scoring offensively overall. On the other end, adding Lu Dort 's experience is one thing, but having the ability to have him and Dyson Daniels playing defense at the same time is another.

But the real notion behind the Hawks making a run is the tale of two seasons they went through. Last season, they had Trae Young , they had Kristaps Porziņģis, and then they didn't. Then post-All-Star break, the Hawks went 20-6 and had the No. 2 defensive rating in the league. Could they have found a formula to sustain regular-season success with the knowledge of what they have to work on in the playoffs?

The Warriors haven't won a championship since 2021-22. They have finished outside of the top 4 in the West in five of the past six seasons. They missed out on the pursuit of LeBron James and did not make a splash move. I understand all of that. My counter?

I find it difficult to imagine Curry looking at the players they missed out on and not feeling a desire to go scorched earth. And that's all I need to envision to see how the Warriors could get it done. If he can stay healthy, time and time again he's shown he's more than able to make life hard on opponents. Should you live your life fueled by spite? Not really. Does it work more times than anyone wants to admit? Yes, it does.

Do we get a motivated Draymond Green ? Is Kristaps Porziņģis able to stay healthy? Does Yaxel Lendeborg fit right into what the Warriors like to do on both ends? Can Brandin Podziemski erase the memory of last year? Will Jimmy Butler get healthy at just the right time and bring all of his playoff rising to the table? The power of continuity may not be the Warriors' strength, but at some point it has to pay off, right? RIGHT?

Health will be the ultimate factor for the Warriors. They started 10-2 in 2024-25, and 4-1 in '25-26. The issue has been sustaining success on top of staying healthy. If the Warriors can win enough games to break out of the pack and hover around the top 4-5 in the West, they can make a run.

I know it feels a little odd to take a team that won 19 games and throw it into the title race. However: Gap years can tend to work out and Tyrese Haliburton is back. So Pacers fans, start your engines, am I right?

The intrigue here is not just the return of Haliburton. It will likely take time, which may throw off expectations, but we've seen how impactful Haliburton can be to the Pacers' formula for success. And that's the point: We've seen the Pacers perform at a high enough level to knock on the door of a championship. Some may feel that wasn't sustainable, but the Pacers proved difficult to deal with.

Offensively, it was not just how fast they played, it was how many actions they got to and how much pressure they put on you. Seeing how Ivica Zubac fits into that as a screener, roller and playmaker should be fun. There is also an argument Zubac will be stronger on the defensive end and help anchor things now that the shock of going to the Pacers midseason has worn off.

Lineup versatility and depth have been a hallmark of the best Pacers runs. Pascal Siakam continues to be a fearless scorer who has consistently fit right in with what the Pacers want to do, and offseason acquisition Kelly Oubre Jr. also adds to what Andrew Nembhard , Aaron Nesmith and Ben Sheppard have provided.

Rick Carlisle has proven he knows what these Pacers are, what they need and how to allow them to work to get there. If it's all systems are go and they learn the lessons from the lumps of last year, why wouldn't we imagine Haliburton eventually getting right back to the position he was at before the injury? And if he does that, you're going to have to deal with the Pacers.

The Magic have dealt with three consecutive first-round exits. But last year there were attempts and moments that once again reminded us what the Magic formula could be, including a trip to the NBA Cup semis and a 10-4 record in November with the No. 7 offensive rating and the No. 4 defensive rating.

You could easily point to the injury button to explain their drop-off, and that would be fair. You would also have to point to the fact that the pace and tempo slowed over the course of the season, though, and their defense … stopped defending.

Enter Sean Sweeney, who has been a key part of building defenses in Dallas and San Antonio (among other stops in his career). Could a return to form on that end build on the tough time the Magic gave the Pistons in the first round? We've seen what this team can accomplish when they do defend, but the hope isn't just a return to guarding but implementing a stronger offense.

Sometimes big trades and big swings feel and look better in Year 2. Do we see a stronger effort from Desmond Bane ? There's been discussion about the combination of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner , but we've seen talented, young wings figure out how to mesh in the Eastern Conference before. If Banchero can deliver even more drives, and if Wagner can stay healthy and maintain confidence on offense, is there more potential than we think? Nikola Vučević came back home for a reason; spacing the floor is one thing, but can his post-ups and handoff work also boost some second units?

Work has to be done, but if they can hit the right notes, the Magic may not be a team you want to see in the playoffs.