Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries pick, prediction, odds: Best bets for the WNBA Finals

The WNBA Finals tip off on Saturday at the Chase Center, as the second-seeded Golden State Valkyries host the No. 4 seed Atlanta Dream.

Both of these teams pride themselves on defense, generating points off turnovers, shooting a high volume of 3-pointers, protecting the rim and emphasizing rebounding. It is very analytically sound basketball and what we commonly see out of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics, so it's not surprising these teams have reached the finals.

Once we knew the teams, there were still two major unknowns for this series that have started to be figured out.

The first was the location of the games, but that has been worked out and the Atlanta Dream will play at State Farm Arena (where the Hawks play), but change the start time of the games to better accommodate the event. I was hoping the games in Atlanta would be moved to Georgia Tech's arena — which is close by and seats only 9,500 fans — as it would create an edge for the Valkyries (which I'm backing in this series). Part of the home-court advantage is the shooters knowing what the lighting looks and feels like and helps set rhythm and depth perception. If Atlanta role players were in a new environment, it would weaken the home-court advantage.

The second unknown is the health status of the Dream's star point guard Allisha Gray. Gray has been dealing with an injury to her ring finger on her left shooting hand. She missed the previous two games against the New York Liberty and then it was reported she had a "small procedure" shortly after. I thought Gray would be out for the series, but now we are seeing videos of her at practice shooting (and making three 3-pointers in a row).

Let's discuss a series, Game 1 and player prop bet to take now for the WNBA Finals.

WNBA Finals: Atlanta Dream (-105) at Golden State Valkyries (-115)

I'm going to lump these two bets into one writeup, because the angle between the series winner and Game 1 winner is highly correlated. I think the Valkyries have a few edges to lean on in this matchup.

Golden State made the finals after series against Jess Sheppard and A'ja Wilson as the opposing bigs, and they made those players play well below their standard. Wilson shot 41.1% for the series, and Sheppard was at 34.8%. That is down from 52.7% and 57.5%, respectively — a major drop in efficiency.

The Dream made the finals on the heels of Angel Reese being the best player on the team and producing a lot offensively. With the combination of Gray probably being less effective with the hand injury (if she plays), and the Valkyries being a dominant defense against opposing bigs, I think the offensive focal points for the Dream will struggle.

Golden State will also put Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Gabby Williams on Rhyne Howard, and size up against Jordin Canada. The Valkyries also have a coaching advantage, as head coach Natalie Nakase is probably the best head coach in the WNBA. She won Coach of the Year last season, and finished second this season. Nakase had eight days to prepare for this series, and that time gap likely creates a bigger edge in game planning. While Atlanta head coach Karl Smesko is very good himself, they operate on different tiers where this edge goes towards the Valkyries.

I am backing the Golden State home-court advantage, coaching advantage, health advantage and defensive advantage for both Game 1 and the series.

Best bets: Valkyries -2.5 in Game 1 and Valkyries -115 to win the series

Player prop: Veronica Burton WNBA Finals MVP (12-1)

The head of the snake for the Valkyries switches off between Veronica Burton and Williams. It has been Williams for the majority of this season and she has gotten the top honors for All-Star, DPOY and All-WNBA team voting. However, she is a new addition this season and it wasn't long ago that Burton was claiming all of those spots. They are a very solid 1-2 punch. The pricing for the WNBA Finals market lists Burton as the fifth-most likely candidate to win MVP, rightfully behind Williams — but she shouldn't also be behind three different Dream players.

This market seems to be overindexing Williams' performance in the playoffs thus far. Williams is averaging 22.7 point per game (up from 14.4 PPG in the regular season), while Burton is down to 9.5 PPG (after averaging 12.2 PPG in the regular season). The playoff sample size is so small (six games), and heavily matchup dependent, so this feels like an overreaction to have them priced so far apart.

Burton could lead the team in scoring, assist, 3-pointers and also be an engine defensively. Buy the dip for Burton to win WNBA Finals MVP.