Caitlin Clark and the Fever have championship potential, but what-ifs and uncertainty reign after latest ousting by Aces

LAS VEGAS — Caitlin Clark touched her tooth, a reflexive move she added to her repertoire within the last hour or so at Michelob Ultra Arena. The ask of her to think back about what stands out about her third professional season is a big one. She mentions "tremendous" teammates, including her podium-mate Kelsey Mitchell, as having the best season of any guard that's ever been in the WNBA. She notes the close-knit locker room. That she's overall proud.

"There's obviously so much outside noise on a microscope of how we perform every single day," Clark said on the final day of her season, a 94-83 Game 3 loss to the Las Vegas Aces in the first round of the WNBA playoffs barely in the rearview. "A lot of really good moments. A lot of tough moments, too, where we felt like we gave a lot of opportunities away, and it's probably what hurts a little bit."

The Fever began the season with championship aspirations that could have been realized. The team set offensive records in the league's 30th season. Clark and Mitchell finished second and third, respectively, in average scoring behind presumptive fifth-time MVP A'ja Wilson. In a stressful return from soft tissue injuries that limited her to 13 games last year, Clark finished second in assists.

The Fever were at times the best in the league, a team you couldn't count out even if they were down by 20. Other times, it felt as though they couldn't dig out of the mud if it were mostly water. They were too much of a roller coaster ride to trust. Out of the FIFA World Cup break, they took a sharp downward swing from a top-four seed to No. 6 of eight.

But! But! The No. 3 Aces are an advantageous matchup, came the cries of fans holding onto desperate hope. This was meant to be . And honestly, it lined up. Indiana went 2-1 against them in the regular season. The Aces' defense was faulty. Their offense relied too heavily on Wilson, and Aliyah Boston could limit her like few others.

Everyone missed the forest for the trees. And not the ones hounding Mitchell all week in the paint.

The same issues that plagued the Fever in Clark's rookie year remain. Clark mentioned several times on Thursday that it was only her fifth playoff game. By midnight on the East Coast, that number hit six. Two days prior, she earned her first professional postseason win in takeover fashion . Those numbers aren't all that different for Mitchell or Boston, though each played in eight playoff games last year while Clark watched from the bench.

The experience meter hasn't budged all that much from 2024 , when the Fever reached the playoffs for the first time since Tamika Catchings retired in 2016. In Clark, Boston and even veteran Mitchell's first playoffs, a graphic hammered home the larger point. The Fever's 11 players had 19 games of postseason experience collectively. Their first-round opponent that year, a Connecticut Sun squad led by now-Fever head coach Stephanie White, had nearly 12 times as many at 222.

The team at the top was — and remains, two years later — Las Vegas. The 2024 roster combined for 273 games of experience. The core players that have remained have each added 16 more games since then, plus two championships. The Fever still aren't anywhere close, and arguably, few others are, either.

"As a group, we're still getting our feet wet on the playoff experience side and we played against a team that's full of playoff experience," Mitchell said. "So that speaks for itself."

For the second consecutive season, the Aces ended the Fever's postseason and will play in their eighth straight semifinals. Vegas' big three, as always, turned up the way Hammon always expects. Wilson (36 points), Chelsea Gray (23 points) and Jackie Young (18) combined for 77 of the Aces' 94.

For the last four years, the Aces ended quite nearly everyone's season. The only series they've lost is the 2024 semifinals to the New York Liberty, a "superteam" roster that added two veteran MVPs to compete with the reigning champion Aces.

Las Vegas is homegrown, a squad that built through the collegiate draft in the late 2010s and is reaping the rewards of lucky lottery balls. The franchise drafted Kelsey Plum, the former all-time NCAA women's Division I scorer, first overall in their final year as the San Antonio Stars in 2017. A'ja Wilson, an NCAA champion at South Carolina, came in at No. 1 in 2018. Jackie Young joined as the No. 1 pick out of Notre Dame in 2019, a season removed from her own NCAA title.

The Fever drafted Boston, a South Carolina champion, and Clark, the active NCAA women's and men's all-time leading scorer, in 2023 and 2024, respectively. It takes a blind eye — or potentially one on the other side of a budding and tense rivalry — to not see the parallels between the two.

"No," Hammon said when asked if she sees the likeness, but noted the team has potential. On a follow-up: "I see differences. And I'll keep those to myself."

There is minutiae in the comparison. And though Hammon wouldn't divulge, there are differentiators. Each team with back-to-back No. 1 picks has won within three years together, but it's more like year 2 for Clark and Co. It's also a different league than when the Aces stacked selections, and certainly from when the Seattle Storm had consecutive top picks in 2001-02 and 2015-16.

"Obviously we live in a world of instant gratification, and everybody expects me to win a championship immediately," Clark said. "And certainly that's my goal. I think this team has potential to do that."

Potential. It's the same word Hammon used. In the future, in a slightly different way, facing a team not actively writing a dynasty.

The Aces endured their own heartbreak en route to a title. They lost the 2020 WNBA Finals, a series that Wilson has used as fuel. Team owner Mark Davis built them the league's first standalone practice facility specifically for their use. After a semifinal berth in 2021, they signed Hammon to what was then the largest coaching contract in the league. She's ended the season with a parade in three of four tries, and is attempting to make it a fourth.

And yet, the Fever were right there with the league standard bearers again, despite earning a 'C' on Clark's report card. Following a messy blowout, they defended home court with an offensive masterclass that involved each of the big three in Game 2 .

The winner-take-all matchup in an uninviting Michelob Ultra Arena went down to the wire after the Fever trailed by as many as 12 in a chippy, foul-filled affair. They were 14 of 20 from the line, paling in comparison to the Aces' 28 of 35. The numbers were starker in the first half. Double technicals were assessed to Clark and Brianna Turner. White looked apoplectic at a call made on Lexie Hull defending Wilson, and was unable to use a challenge. She, too, earned a tech.

Of many pivotal plays in hindsight, one stood clear in the moment. After Mitchell's stepback 3 pulled the Fever to within a possession, 82-80, Clark stole the ball from Gray. Mitchell missed a floater, but the bouncy vet leaped up for the rebound. She snaggled with Gray under the basket and was called for the foul. White challenged, using her final timeout, and the call stood. Gray made both free throws.

"Things didn't go our way tonight, but if the challenge at whatever point that was, two minutes to go, is called correctly when they go to the monitor, it's a one-possession game and we have the ball," Clark said.

It swung the game, but it did not define it. The Fever's offense — which Hammon praised as "impressive" — never hit full strength after a 31-31 first quarter. They were 38.5% from the floor, third-worst of their season. They lost all eight games in which they were worse than 42%. Their perimeter shooting (9 of 32) let them down, and late, momentum-shifting attempts by Mitchell and Clark both bounced.

"We've made a lot of those shots throughout the year, too," Clark said. "So if we would have ran it back, who knows, me and Kels maybe make another combined eight shots, and it's a completely different game."

Like much of the season, the opportunity slipped away. The Fever walked off the court for the last time this year, and with a finality to this version of themselves. They've gained experience. The front office will adjust out of necessity. Mitchell, most notably, is a free agent and will be highly sought after should she want to take the calls. She's only ever played in Indiana after being drafted No. 2 after Wilson. The salary cap will dictate options.

In a different version of these playoffs, which Clark assessed as wide open, the Fever advance and lend credence to their preseason claims. Yet, they dealt themselves their own hand and didn't have the cards to beat the best.