ESPN BPI: Surging Timberwolves Projected 48 Wins, 95.5% Playoff Odds

The NBA preseason is underway, and the Minnesota Timberwolves opener showed plenty of promise. Now, ESPN's Basketball Power Index is saying encouraging things about the team, too. The Wolves finished 49-33 last season, reached the Western Conference semifinals, and are entering 2026-27 with several roster changes. Just how high are the expectations for the Wolves?

ESPN's projection currently lists Minnesota at 47.8 wins and 34.2 losses, and as either the fourth or, more likely, fifth seed in the Western Conference.

That projection places Minnesota eighth, behind the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Detroit Pistons, Denver Nuggets and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Timberwolves are trailing those last teams by only a slim margin, 47.8, compared with 48.7 for Denver and 47.9 for Cleveland.

Oklahoma City leads the table at 60.7 projected wins, while San Antonio is listed at 59.1. New York is third at 51.7, followed by Boston at 51.3. Detroit is projected to win 49.4 games.

Minnesota's 47.8 figure is 1.2 wins below its 49 victories from last season. That says less about an expectation for the Wolves to be worse, and more about other teams getting better.

ESPN Gives Timberwolves 3 Playoff Probabilities

The BPI table lists an overall 95.5% playoff probability for Minnesota. It also lists an 81.1% probability of finishing in the top six and an 18.8% probability of participating in the play-in tournament.

Those figures are displayed separately in ESPN's projection table. Minnesota also has a 1.7% probability of winning its division in the table. The low figure is so low because of sharing their division with the Thunder.

Oklahoma City and San Antonio are both listed with 100% playoff probabilities. Denver is at 96.9%, New York at 97.7%, Boston at 97.2%, and Cleveland at 88.4%.

The Timberwolves averaged 118.0 points last season, seventh in the NBA, and allowed 114.6 points per game. Their 116.8 offensive rating ranked 12th, while their 113.5 defensive rating ranked eighth.

Anthony Edwards put up 28.8 points a night over 61 games. Meanwhile, Rudy Gobert held down the paint with 11.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks, and Jaden McDaniels chipped in 14.8 points while hitting a really solid 41.2% of his threes.

Minnesota entered the playoffs as the sixth seed, defeated Denver 4-2 in the first round, and then lost 4-2 to San Antonio in the conference semifinals.

The Current Roster Includes LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga

2026-27 Minnesota roster lists LaMelo Ball , Jonathan Kuminga , Ayo Dosunmu , Trey Lyles , Bones Hyland , Gobert, Edwards, and McDaniels among the team's established players.

Ball averaged 20.1 points and 7.1 assists in 72 games for Charlotte last season while shooting 36.8% from three. Kuminga averaged 12.2 points and 5.6 rebounds in 36 games playing for the Golden State Warriors and Atlanta Hawks.

The roster also includes Joan Beringer , a 19-year-old center, and Isaiah Evans , whom Minnesota drafted in 2026.

The table places Minnesota at 47.8 projected wins, with Denver at 48.7 and Cleveland at 47.9. Philadelphia follows at 47.5, while Houston is listed at 46.7.

Minnesota is listed with an 81.1% probability of finishing in the top six. The table separately lists an 18.8% play-in probability and a 95.5% overall playoff probability.

What comes next is more important for the Timberwolves than another projection. Minnesota opened its preseason against Milwaukee on Oct. 5, giving the Timberwolves their first live-game setting with the reshaped roster.

While that matchup provided early playing-time clues for Ball, Kuminga, and Beringer, Minnesota's Oct. 7 contest against Indiana marks their second exhibition. From there, Minnesota has several more preseason games to test rotations before the regular season begins. Then they'll try to prove that ESPN's projection severely underrates them.