2026-27 NBA Season Preview: Thunder, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, Jazz (Northwest Division)

With the regular season set to tip off on Oct. 20, let's take a look at where each team in the Northwest Division stands. We'll break down what to like and be concerned about, a lineup to watch and a reasonable range for them to finish in the standings.

Back-to-back MVPs don't grow on trees, especially guards that can convert over 60% of their 2s on midrange heavy diets. There's an inevitability I've come to appreciate with SGA. He moves at his own pace — moves you at his own pace — en route to an endless supply of fancy finishes and midrange goodness. He's been lifting defensively-slanted lineups for years now, and still has relatively low-hanging fruit (hello, 3-point volume) to grab.

This defense, headlined by Chet Holmgren (he's still really good, y'all!), should remain absurd. A healthier version of Jalen Williams will boost what is already an elite unit, and I'm excited to see how Cason Wallace builds on his first All-Defense campaign. Isaiah Hartenstein rounds out the (projected) starting five as one of the more underrated defenders in the league. Alex Caruso remains an absolute madman, and would be a mainstay for All-Defensive teams if he played more. Jaylin Williams is equal parts scheme-versatile and charge magnet. Good luck scoring against this unit. Again.

While I expect Wallace to step into Lu Dort's starting spot, I wouldn't be surprised if OKC rolled with Ajay Mitchell to add more of a scoring punch. He's dynamic with the ball in his hands, making him an ideal option to either destroy defenses that are tilted by SGA, or pose enough of a threat to further unlock SGA as an off-ball option.

As a longtime Kenrich Williams enjoyer, I'm so glad he's still on this roster. Consummate professional who can step in and fill just about any role you need him to. He'll forever have a fan here.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Non-SGA half-court creation

There are only so many things you can poke at for a team this good, but I would like to feel a little better about the non-SGA options as a whole — at least through a playoff context.

Teams continue to stash wings on Holmgren; at some point, he has to take that gambit off the board for good. Last year was an injury-riddled campaign for Jalen Williams, but the shots he generates for himself against high-level defenses can leave a little to be desired.

This could be as simple as Williams getting and staying healthy, Mitchell continuing to win as a secondary, and Holmgren making strides against smaller defenders. Heck, a full season of Jared McCain — paired with some needed inside-the-arc growth — could go a long way.

In light of Isaiah Joe's departure specifically, I am once again keeping an eye on the 3-point shooting of OKC. McCain feels like the Thunder's only trustworthy, high-volume guy that teams will care about. I wonder how players will draw consistent hard close-outs by the time we reach the playoffs.

More of a curiosity than concern, but in what ways (if any) will the Thunder miss Lu Dort? There is something to say about his brand of physicality and what it did from a culture-setting standpoint; he was also someone more than willing to take on the big wing assignments if called upon. The lineup data certainly suggests they won't miss him, but I want to see how seamless this transition is.

Also more of a curiosity note, but I wonder how much we'll see from the rookie scale guys aside from McCain. A reasonable year of health would suggest we don't see much of Bennett Stirtz or Aday Mara, but I sure would like to.

LINEUP TO WATCH: SGA-Wallace-Caruso-Jal.Williams-Holmgren

Put this at the top of my Closing Lineup Intrigue list. This group has played 37 minutes together since the 2024-25 season, and they've won those minutes by 45 points. I don't expect them to continue shooting 50% from 3 as a unit, but this is a very fun mix of scoring, screening, and absurd defense.

They have the best guard, if not player, in the NBA. They have an elite defense. They have a top-three-at-worst coach in the NBA in Mark Daigneault. If they were the 1-seed while suffering through one of the most injury-riddled campaigns in the league last year, a healthier version should absolutely flirt with 70 wins again.

An injury to SGA could certainly hurt their ceiling, but the Thunder went 8-6 without SGA last year while dealing with a host of other injuries in the process. It's hard to overstate how strong this team is, foundationally. That defense travels; most importantly, it turns you over — which should lessen the strain on their half-court offense.

WHAT TO LIKE: Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, making music

There's room to argue if Nikola Jokić is still the league's best player — SGA and Victor Wembanyama in particular have strong cases to make, and there are guys in Los Angeles and Miami that would proudly raise their hands. At the very least, Jokić is the league's most dominant offensive player — a historically efficient scorer that doubles as arguably the best passer in the league.

Jamal Murray is dynamic in his own right, an audacious pull-up threat who's more than comfortable operating inside the arc when he needs to. Together, they've created the league's most difficult two-man game to stop. Traditional ball screens, handoffs, inverted actions with Jokić handling — it all throws opponents for a loop.

There is no good answer for any of it; you can only hope that Murray doesn't have the juice to get downhill, or that Jokić settles for (and misses) 3s off the pop (something to monitor).

It's been a blast watching Aaron Gordon evolve during his time in Denver. He's an absolute monster in the dunker spot, has enough on-ball juice to win against size mismatches, has turned himself into a reliable shooter (41.3% from 3 over the past two seasons) and can toggle between handling tough on-ball assignments and plugging gaps off the ball defensively. "Star in his role" is a lot more fitting than "role player" when he's upright.

I'm much more "in" on DeMar DeRozan as a super sub that can close when you need him, versus DeRozan as a locked-in starter that you need a particular context around to maximize. He's still an efficient, somewhat schemeproof bucket-getter with underrated playmaking chops. He's more than capable of soaking up usage in the dreaded non-Jokić minutes; depending on how the other reserves perform, DeRozan's presence may allow the Nuggets to take a page out of the Las Vegas Aces' book and rest both Jokić and Murray at the same time to fully maximize their impact together.

It's unreasonable to be fully "in" on a guy based on preseason action, so I'll just say I enjoyed watching Alpha Diallo defend — including a forced eight-second violation — and I'm excited to see more of him.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Defensive consistency

Same as it ever was: the Nuggets need to hit a certain level defensively to complement what should be another elite offensive season. Can they find the right coverage mixture for Jokić, and will he give more consistent effort than we saw last season? Will Gordon be on the floor enough, and can he reach near All-Defense levels? What level of navigation will we get from this cast of guards and wings? How much zone will David Adelman throw out?

There's a roadmap to average, but it's on them to nail it.

I'm on record liking the Marvin Bagley signing, I have Da'Ron Holmes intrigue, and I still have some Zeke Nnaji stock hidden in an undisclosed location (I know, I know), but there's certainly a level of "prove it" with the non-Jokić options. We know that Gordon-at-the-5 is Denver's best look; the regular season has to be spent making sure that, come playoff time, it isn't the only look that'll work.

The Nuggets and Celtics have long been at the opposite end of the "Elite Offense But Also…" coin for me. The Celtics have gotten it done with rim rates that makes me cringe; the Nuggets have gotten it done with 3-point rates that makes me cringe, though they did jump from 30th to 17th (!) last season. Hopefully they continue to work toward balancing things out, though the DeRozan signing doesn't breed a ton of confidence in the 3-point rate specifically.

I think there's a pathway to the Nuggets being "fine" on defense overall, but boy do I wish they could turn teams over. You'd have to go back to the title year (2022-23) for the last time they weren't in the bottom-10 of opponent turnover rate — and they were 18th that year.

LINEUP TO WATCH: Murray-Braun-DeRozan-Gordon-Jokić

DeRozan is already slated to come off the bench. I hope whatever discussions led to that revelation also came with notice that closing minutes aren't guaranteed. There's absolutely a world where the starting group (Cam Johnson in for DeRozan) is simply their best lineup, and thus, the lineup they close games with more often.

Jokić having two prolific shotmakers to run two-man-game with is tantalizing if the defense can hold up enough. If teams lean more toward switching Murray-Jokić stuff — which certainly isn't a foolproof answer, but it's a trend I'm monitoring — DeRozan's ability to create may hold a little more value than Johnson's shooting within that context.

Despite the injuries they suffered, the Nuggets still managed to post a top-three offensive rating in NBA history, per Cleaning the Glass. The Jokić-Murray duo guarantees an incredibly high floor. If the Nuggets are actually solid in the non-Jokić minutes this year and take a step forward defensively, it's not hard to map out a pathway to winning 60+ games.

There are obvious injury concerns to point to, most notably with Gordon as an important, impactful glue piece on both ends of the floor. To the on-court product, if the bench underwhelms and the defense is once-again rudderless, they're going to struggle to lock up a top-six seed.

WHAT TO LIKE: LaMelo Ball-Anthony Edwards backcourt

Anthony Edwards has established himself as one of the most lethal offensive players we have in the league. He's a devastating downhill threat, a growing midrange and back-to-basket scorer, and one of the best pull-up shooters from deep that we have in the league. He's put in a lot of work to etch the outline of a three-level scorer, and he's done even more work to leverage that growth into forcing teams to put two-on-the-ball against him.

Giving him LaMelo Ball as a backcourt partner feels like a match made in basketball heaven.

Ball is one of the most creative playmakers we have in the league, one willing to push the pace more often than Edwards has shown to be. The hit-aheads and general pick-and-roll work should give Edwards more opportunities to attack tilted defenses instead of being tasked with doing the titling.

Ball's willingness to bomb away from 3, and from very far out, should give Edwards more room to work with as a driver. And where Ball has room to grow as a rim- or paint presence, Edwards' ability to get downhill should tilt defenses in a way that Ball will benefit from.

Jaden McDaniels is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, fantastic against wings and more than willing to hound much-smaller guards and make their lives miserable. On the other end, he's continued to grow as a closeout attacker and overall shot creator. In a context where he should consistently be defended by a team's third- or fourth-best defender, he could shine pretty bright. Do not be surprised if he's in (fringe) All-Star conversations.

Dread it. Run from it. Rudy Gobert's rim protection arrives all the same. Every year, players show (or outwardly discuss) a lack of respect for Gobert. And every year, teams struggle to score at the rim when he contests shots, and they take a lower share of their shots at the rim when Gobert's on the floor. He's been a walking top-10 defense for over a decade at this point.

I'm just a huge fan of the speed, chaos, and 3-point shooting Ayo Dosunmu injected into this group post-trade last year, and especially in the playoffs. Three-"guard" lineups with him, Ball and Edwards should be fun to watch.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: The non-Rudy Gobert minutes

Here is your obligatory "What are the non-Rudy Gobert minutes going to look like?" mention. In Gobert's four seasons in Minnesota, the Wolves have been nearly five points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, with that difference almost solely coming on the defensive end.

I am excited to see more Joan Beringer this year, but there's a good bit of pressure for him to be immediately steady. I'm rooting for it to work; I just need to see it work.

Quietly, the Wolves saw switches against pick-and-rolls at one of the highest rates in the league. Their efficiency against those looks left a bit to be desired, to be kind. There's a lot of pick-and-roll goodness to be had with this group, but I do wonder what their process and overall shot quality will look like when they face defenses with the personnel to cross-match and ultimately flatten them out. I am looking at you, Mr. Ball and Mr. Edwards. Speaking of which …

At their best and most attentive, Ball and Edwards are both gifted at reading passing lanes, poking at handles, and ultimately turning teams over. At their worst, you can catch them flat-footed or generally disinterested, opening up cuts and relocations that fracture the integrity of a defense. Those two need to be more consistent off-ball defenders for the Wolves to hit their full potential. They're physically capable.

It's definitely fair to argue that swapping out Julius Randle and Naz Reid for LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga will make the Wolves better overall. I do think it's fair to point out that you lose a good deal of collective physicality with that swap, and it's worth monitoring how impactful (and where) that could be.

LINEUP TO WATCH: Ball-Edwards-Dosunmu-McDaniels-Gobert

The Edwards-Dosunmu-McDaniels-Gobert quartet played 120 minutes together last season, but they were outscored by 51 points in that span. Is replacing Julius Randle (-36 in group-high 57 minutes as the 5th) with Ball enough to tilt the scales? You technically get smaller, but you get a major boost in pace, playmaking, and 3-point volume.

The defense should be quite good, if not elite — especially if there's consistent buy-in from Ball and Edwards. And with Ball and Edwards at the forefront on the other end, there's a pathway to the Wolves having a top-five offense — if not the best offense in the league.

There's a world where the increased pace accentuates the questionable decision-making that can pop up with Ball and Edwards. That, plus opposing defenses leaning into a higher dosage of switching could lead to a good-but-underwhelming offensive season as a whole. If their defense is closer to 10th (or worse), it's a formula that could have the Wolves winning 45-48 games rather than flirting with (or even eclipsing) 60.

If nothing else, the Blazers have plenty of options to cycle through this year!

Ja Morant is here , looking to reclaim his status as a top-tier guard while adding more driving juice to a team that gets downhill quite a bit. Damian Lillard is back, hopefully prepared to provide a much-needed injection of (off-the-bounce) shooting for a Blazers team that needs it.

Scoot Henderson returns after … maybe not a full-blown shift in role, but at least a notable one as an off-ball attacker. There's also Jrue Holiday, who's more of a 6-foot-4 basketball player than a guard in a traditional sense. He'll run the offense, attack tilted defenses, ramp up his 3-point volume when called upon, and will face-guard the electronic device you're reading this on if you ask him to.

The defensive trio of Holiday, Toumani Camara, and Donovan Clingan is one of my favorites — and, frankly, one of the best in the league. Holiday and Camara can defend 1-through-4, while Clingan has established himself as one of the best interior defenders in the league. I'm excited to watch them work.

I don't know how much it'll carry over this year in light of the roster and sideline changes, but boy did I enjoy the amount of full-court pressure the Blazers tossed out last season. Looking at what Alex Sarama did with the Portland Fire on the WNBA side, I hope this just becomes a Portland basketball staple.

I was surprised the Blazers were able to keep Robert Williams III, but what a luxury it is to have him coming off the bench. Not many teams can match the 48 minutes of rim protection the Blazers can toss out between him and Clingan.

While I generally like the guard room in a vacuum, figuring out a cohesive rotation that features all of them is well above my paygrade. If new head coach Micah Nori is truly going to split Morant and Lillard — which, for defensive purposes, makes a ton of sense — how are these combinations going to shake out?

And in general, can you find the right combinations of shooting, playmaking, and defense to truly make this work?

I just … virtually every bit of Blazers news I've read this summer has made me sigh, and I'm not even a Blazers fan. The shameful contract given to/accepted by Nori, the volume of lost jobs in different facets of the organization, the play-by-play hiring and immediate firing, on-the-record comments from new owner Tom Dundon that seem to, at the very least, lack a level of empathy you'd like to see or hear. I just don't like the vibes around the organization right now, and I hope it flips when games are actually played.

I liked the way Clingan was moved around last year, but he needs to take a pretty substantial step as a ball-screen partner and finisher, especially with the guards in the room.

With Shaedon Sharpe out for the foreseeable future, what exactly is the wing/forward rotation behind first-time All-Star Deni Avdija? Jerami Grant is in Memphis. Matisse Thybulle is in LA. I'm a Vit Krejci guy, but I don't know if I want him to be this important at work.

LINEUP TO WATCH: Morant-Lillard-Holiday-Camara-Williams III

The Holiday/Camara/Williams III trio, with Avdija on the bench, was quietly +30 in 139 minutes together last season. That's a strong foundation defensively, which should, in theory, make the Morant-Lillard backcourt more viable to play. I want to see this one.

If they're able to at least flirt with being a top-10 unit defensively this year, the added offensive firepower could give them a higher floor than people are giving them credit for.

WORST CASE: Outside of the Play-In Tournament

I think it would take some real injury misfortune for the Blazers to be in worst-in-the-conference/league territory. Still, there's definitely a world where the defense takes a hit in light of their smaller backcourt and they don't score efficiently enough to offset that dip.

Similar to the Grizzlies, I'm pretty bullish on the amount of levers this team can pull. Will Hardy is a creative offensive mind with spacing principles I enjoy.

There's guard creation to like with Keyonte George and newcomer Darryn Peterson, with both having a level of on- and off-ball utility that can be useful. Lauri Markkanen has long been moved around the board because of the threat of his shooting, and he showcased some real juice as a driver (and foul-drawer) last year. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a fun inside-out threat, and you can invert the offense with Jusuf Nurkic because of his passing ability.

I'm excited to see what Ace Bailey looks like in Year 2. His in-season growth flew a little under the radar last year, but in general I like the way he was utilized. So many of his touches started with movement; with more spacing and talent around him, the context should be even easier for him.

To the rest of the bench: Isaiah Collier drives all over the place; Svi Mykhailiuk is a good shooter with underrated passing chops. Josh Okogie is willing to guard just about anyone, and is quietly coming off the best 3-point shooting season (38.5% on 2.1 attempts) of his career. If Brice Sensabaugh doesn't do anything else, he'll shoot the leather off the ball. Kyle Filipowski can be, and has been, used in a multitude of ways offensively. There's a good bit to play with here.

For whatever you can take from preseason action, it was notable to me that the Jazz opted to start in a zone look against the Nuggets in their opener. You could see the seeds of them forcing deeper-in-clock possessions, passing off assignments and working through scram switches. You could also see how perilous things felt when their guards got poked at, and the rotations behind their help weren't crisp.

There are fun lineups they can get to — do not be surprised if Okogie becomes more important at work than expected — but ultimately they have to get this defense to "serviceable" to complement the offense. They were 29th in defensive rating, per Cleaning The Glass, last year; what does this look like if they're, say, 18th?

If Nurkic misses any amount of substantial time — he's missed at least 20 games in six of the last seven seasons, so history suggests he will — I am pretty worried about the rebounding of this group.

Hardy does a great job of scheming things up and simplifying reads, but this isn't a great passing roster overall. Like, Nurk is probably one of the three or four best passers on the team. I'm curious to see how that reality plays out, and which teams (or coverages) put that under the microscope.

LINEUP TO WATCH: George-Peterson-Bailey-Markkanen-Jackson Jr.

I can hear all of Memphis yelling. I hear y'all. Jaren at the 5 is not ideal because of the rebounding (and fouling) woes. I've seen it, and I've seen the numbers. I don't think we're going to get a ton of this look, which is why Nurkic and, to a lesser extent, Jaxson Hayes are on this roster.

I don't think we're getting zero minutes of that look, though, and I'm curious to see how often we get this group together. In theory, that's a lot of shot creation and a level of collective size 3-through-5 that should allow a baseline level of switching.

The offense projects to be a multifaceted one. They have pick-and-roll creators, off-ball options, mismatch hunters, and a head coach in Hardy who can dial up some schematic fun. If the defense can be serviceable — Jackson Jr. + switchable size could provide a roadmap there — people shouldn't be too surprised by them churning out wins.

I can't rule out the defense being such a disappointment that the offensive juice is rendered moot, especially with the firepower they'll have to deal with in this division — on top of the conference itself.