MLB Free Agency 2026-27: Contract and Landing Spot Predictions for Top 25 Players

Welcome to Bleacher Report's 2026-27 countdown of the top 25 MLB free agents, where we will predict the contracts and destinations of some of the best players available on the open market.

Before we begin, keep a few things in mind.

MLB owners are expected to lock out players when the current collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. MLB is pushing for a salary cap system similar to the NBA, while the MLBPA strongly opposes any cap. That will likely lead to a prolonged lockout, and the rules after the next CBA may be very different. Without knowing what the future system looks like, we're basing these predictions on the current CBA, especially since there will be a few weeks of free agency before the lockout.

Contract predictions matter most. Generally, a player should get a similar contract wherever they land.

This is the third year of doing this on B/R. Each year, we make adjustments to be more accurate. This year, there is a bit of an overcorrection based on players like Cody Bellinger, Dylan Cease, Michael King and Merrill Kelly getting larger deals than we (and most outlets) expected. So, if anything, the lean is toward giving a larger contract than initially expected.

At the same time, there are players every year who get way less than the market expects, with Kyle Tucker, Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai among those who that applied to last offseason. The balance is finding players that teams won't value as much as the public does.

These are hardly the only players who could improve your team this offseason. For example, players like Carson Kelly, Daulton Varsho, Edmundo Sosa, Matthew Boyd, Taylor Ward, Kevin Gausman and Mauricio Dubón all just missed out on this list. Plenty of intriguing trade candidates will be available this offseason as well.

With all that acknowledged, let's take a look at our projected contract and landing spots for the top 25 free agents.

2026 Stats: .260/.364/.363, 8 HR, 38 RBI, 57 BB, .727 OPS, 1.0 WAR

Contract Prediction: One year, $12 million with $15 million mutual option for 2028

The Tigers extended the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer to Gleyber Torres last winter. He wisely accepted it. He's headed for a relatively significant pay cut in 2027.

A left oblique strain limited Torres to just 96 games this past season. This followed a core muscle injury he played through, which eventually required offseason surgery in the second half of the 2025 campaign, when he posted just a .659 OPS after making his third career All-Star Game appearance. Torres is still only entering his age-30 season, but he broke into the league as a 21-year-old. These injuries must be a concern for potential suitors.

Still, Torres probably doesn't get enough credit for the player he is when healthy. No, he's never developed into the superstar he appeared poised to be when he homered 62 times in his first two MLB seasons with the Yankees. But he posted a .754 OPS between 2022 and 2025. In an era when baseball lacks quality right-handed hitters, there's still plenty of reason to be interested in Torres' services.

Torres will have to compete with a slew of other quality second basemen available this offseason. He's likely looking at a one-year deal, but the Rangers could offer a good landing spot for the veteran. If Torres can stay healthy in 2027, he's still young enough to land a lucrative multi-year deal in 2028.

2026 Stats: .249/.315/.383, 15 HR, 88 RBI, 48 BB, .698 OPS, 0.2 WAR

Contract Prediction: Two years, $30 million with player opt out available after 2027

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, with Alec Bohm.

Bohm didn't have a great contract season, though a settled lawsuit against his parents likely contributed to a slow start. He posted a .632 first-half OPS but rebounded to .794 after the All-Star Break.

Bohm still drove in 88 runs, the third time in four seasons he's driven in at least that many. Over seven seasons with the Phillies, Bohm has shown he can bring runners in, as he's a career .314 hitter with runners in scoring position. The sample size is large enough that it's not just a coincidence.

There are still downsides with Bohm. Despite being listed at 6-foot-4, 218 pounds (which feels like selling him short if you have been around him), Bohm has never developed into someone who consistently drives the ball out of the park. Not every player needs to be a home run hitter, but most of his home runs travel over 400 feet. Early in his career, there was a thought that he would eventually be a guy who hit 30 homers a season. He hits plenty of doubles, but 20 home runs in 2023 is the most he has hit in a single season.

Additionally, teams will likely have mixed views about him as a defender. Bohm has improved dramatically at third base since entering the league, although he's still coming off a season where he posted minus-10 defensive runs saved and minus-eight outs above average at third base, his worst marks at the hot corner since 2022. He has shown he can be a component first baseman, but given his lack of home run power, most clubs will prefer him at third base.

To a degree, Bohm seems caught in between. He still has value as a player. Perhaps a new club will be able to get more out of him. However, he's never developed into a home run hitter. He doesn't hit for a particularly high average (he's a .273 career hitter) or draw many walks.

The Cardinals make sense for Bohm, who is from Omaha and played collegiately at Wichita State. He can sign a multi-year deal with them, but opt out and return to the market if he has a more complete 2027.

2026 Stats: 11-10, 3.77 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 174 SO, 174.1 IP, 1.8 WAR

Contract Prediction: Two years, $34 million

Increasingly, Shota Imanaga's 2024 rookie season—in which he posted a 2.91 ERA over 29 starts and finished fifth in NL Cy Young Award voting—feels like an outlier.

In the two seasons since, Imanaga has posted a 3.75 ERA over 57 starts while allowing 66 home runs, tying him with Tomoyuki Sugano and Zack Littell for the most among all MLB starters over that period.

Still, Imanaga has value. The lefty may not be an ace, but he still logged over 170 innings for the second time in three MLB seasons this past year. If you get Imanaga to a stadium where the ball doesn't fly, he could still be an effective rotation option.

According to MLB Park Factors , loanDepot Park is tied for the fifth-fewest home runs allowed over the last three seasons. Imanaga could join the Marlins to serve as insurance if they trade Sandy Alcantara this offseason or lose him in free agency next winter.

2026 Stats: 59 G, 2.55 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 34-for-37 SV, 1.1 WAR

Contract Prediction: One year, $16 million

Raisel Iglesias returned to the Braves on a one-year, $16 million deal last offseason and earned every cent, making his first career All-Star Game appearance in his age-36 season.

Historically, teams have been hesitant to give relievers at his age multi-year deals. If he were a few years younger, he would be a lock for at least two years this winter. Even as is, he'll make out very well on the open market. He may be able to increase his options if he's willing to be a set-up man, though it would hardly be unreasonable for someone with 287 career saves (which trails only Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman among active pitchers) to be hell-bent on being a closer for whatever team he pitches for in 2027.

You'll see later in this story why we haven't predicted a return to the Braves, but remaining in Atlanta—where he's pitched the last four-and-a-half seasons—is a distinct possibility.

If not the Braves, the Tigers are a good fit. The aforementioned Jansen is a free agent after leading them with 22 saves in 2026. Iglesias is a few years younger and could spearhead a bullpen that will also include Tyler Holton, Drew Sommers and Kyle Finnegan.

2026 Stats: 6-10, 4.32 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 110 K, 131.1 IP, 2.3 WAR

Contract Prediction: One year, $14 million

Casey Mize will have a wide variance in projections.

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft finally looked to be putting things together in 2025, riding a 9-3 first half with a 3.15 ERA to his first career All-Star Game selection. He regressed badly after the Midsummer Classic, posting a 4.92 ERA over his final 12 outings.

He was excellent for the Tigers in 2026, posting a 2.70 ERA in 16 starts. But Mize was a disaster after his trade to the San Diego Padres, finishing with a 7.46 ERA in 10 outings.

Prospective suitors will also have to consider his health history. Mize had Tommy John surgery in 2022, followed by a procedure on his back. Left hamstring strains sidelined him in 2024 and 2025. This past season, he had a right adductor strain and right ankle sprain that required IL stints. If you sign Mize, you have to go in knowing he's more likely to make 25 starts than 33.

Mize could replace Sonny Gray in Boston's rotation on a one-year commitment. If he stays healthy and pitches well, he could be a qualifying-offer candidate next year.

2026 Stats: 15-6, 3.60 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 158 K, 172.2 IP, 2.6 WAR

Contract Prediction: Three years, $56 million with player opt out available after 2028

Foster Griffin was one of the great stories of the first half of the 2026 season, going 12-3 with a 3.06 ERA for the Washington Nationals, en route to an All-Star selection after spending the previous three seasons in Japan.

However, Griffin had a 4.10 FIP during his time with the Nationals, suggesting regression was coming. That did happen after Griffin was traded to the Cleveland Guardians, where he posted a 5.19 ERA in nine starts. To be fair to Griffin, he had a 3.54 FIP with the Guardians, so he may have been a bit unlucky on a small sample size. Truthfully, he's probably somewhere in between the two pitchers he was this season.

Griffin's full body of work in 2026 is still pretty impressive, even with the second-half regression factored in. He pitched 172.2 innings, going 15-6 with a 3.60 ERA and a 3.96 FIP. He might have been in line for an even bigger deal at one point in the summer, but he should still make out pretty well this offseason.

The San Diego Padres basically need to redo their entire rotation, considering that the aforementioned Mize, Michael King, Robbie Ray and Walker Buehler are all free agents. Griffin can't be their only addition this offseason, but he would be a good place to start.

2026 Stats: 15-6, 3.10 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 109 K, 180 IP, 2.9 WAR

Contract Prediction: Two years, $36 million

Nick Martinez declined his half of a $20 million mutual option with the Tampa Bay Rays. Whether or not he makes $20 million in 2027, he should earn more in guaranteed money this offseason.

Martinez will get a $4 million buyout as a likely parting gift from the Rays, where he was beloved on a team that reached the World Series. Not only did Martinez make his first All-Star Game appearance this past year, but Drew Rasmussen called him "the best teammate ever."

Based on his 180 innings and 3.10 ERA, Martinez would be in line for a nice contract this offseason. The narrative that he was a culture changer for the Rays will only help him as a free agent. He doesn't have the same track record as Merrill Kelly, but he's at a similar stage of his career as the veteran righty was when he got a two-year, $40 million deal from the Arizona Diamondbacks last offseason. A similar deal—with the $4 million buyout also in his back pocket—would make perfect sense for Martinez.

The Giants gave Justin Verlander a one-year, $15 million deal two offseasons ago and Tyler Mahle a one-year, $10 million deal last winter. With Robbie Ray's money also off the books, baseball operations president Buster Posey could target Martinez as someone who could not only improve his rotation but also help build a winning culture.

2026 Stats: 7-10, 3.99 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 137 K, 149 IP, 2.1 WAR

Contract Prediction: Two years, $39 million with $22 million club option for 2029

Most pitchers put together their best career numbers in San Francisco. As it turns out, Tyler Mahle is the exception.

Mahle signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Giants last winter. It just didn't work out. In 18 starts in San Francisco, Mahle went 3-9 with a 5.13 ERA.

However, a summer trade to the Braves revitalized his season, as he went 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA in nine starts with Atlanta. Among qualified starters , that ERA was the sixth-best in baseball after the trade deadline.

Mahle will not be for the risk-averse. He had Tommy John surgery in May of 2023. Right shoulder fatigue limited him to 16 starts in 2025 with the Texas Rangers. He missed nearly a month in 2026 with a left hamstring strain. Heck, before he limited the Phillies to one run over seven innings of work in Game 2 of the NLWCS, an abdominal injury nearly forced the Braves to scratch him.

But man, the flashes are so impressive. Sure, he only made 16 starts for the Rangers in 2025, but he posted a 2.18 ERA in those starts. While some teams will pass on Mahle because of his injury history, others will focus on the highs and think that if they give him a multi-year deal this offseason, it could be a bargain if they get the best version of him. Because of those factors, Mahle was probably the hardest contract to project on this list.

Ultimately, we have him return to Texas, this time joining an Astros team that's very thin on pitching depth beyond Hunter Brown and Peter Lambert.

2026 Stats (in NPB): 12-5, 1.36 ERA, 141 K, 146 IP

Contract Prediction: Three years, $60 million with player opt out available after 2028

As we saw with Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai last year, there will always be some uncertainty about how a player who has starred in Japan will perform when they reach the majors. RHP Kaima Taira will likely be the latest example of that this offseason.

On one hand, he's coming off a tremendous season for the Seibu Lions, posting a 1.36 ERA over 146 innings pitched. Those results are hard to argue with. MLB.com's Michael Clair offered a pretty intriguing scouting report of the 26-year-old's stuff:

He throws a mid-90s fastball and has an entire coterie of secondary offerings, including a cutter, slider, change and -- of course -- a split-finger.

"He's got a big fastball, a lot of secondaries, and he's a [student] of analytics," our scout noted.

On the other hand, Taira is only 5-foot-8, 209 pounds, which will scare some teams about his durability. He's been utilized as a closer previously, including when he posted 31 saves in 2025. That reliever background might give him a higher floor, but a lack of a long track record as a starter might mean his earning ceiling isn't as high as he'd like this winter. He did log 146 innings as a starter in 2026, along with 150 in 2023, to be fair.

Taira might need to take a shorter-term deal this offseason and prove that he can be a durable starter before getting his biggest payday. Luckily for him, he's young enough to do that.

We've projected that the A's will include some hazard pay to get Taira to spend his first MLB season playing at a bandbox Triple-A park in Sacramento. He does get an opt-out after the second season, but the Athletics will be assured of having him for 2028, which is expected to be their first season in Las Vegas.

2026 Stats: .256/.353/.461, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 46 BB, .814 OPS, 2.6 WAR

Contract Prediction: Three years, $46 million

For a team like the Minnesota Twins—who aren't typically big spenders—to give Ryan Jeffers a one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer suggests they have intel that his market will be robust. If not, they'll be on the hook for a significant chunk of change to a part-time catcher.

To the credit of Jeffers, he's coming off a season where he did even more damage against right-handed pitching (11 home runs, .819 OPS) than left-handed (three home runs, .802 OPS). Teams will have to decide how sustainable that is, given his career .839 OPS against lefties versus .713 against righties. It's nice to know that when you sign a bat-first catcher to a big deal, he can be in the lineup regardless of who is on the mound for the opposing team.

With minus-eight defensive runs saved and a minus-20 fielding run value in his career, Jeffers is a below-average catcher. He's also not a workhorse, with 720.1 frames in 2024 being the most Jeffers has ever caught in a season. Adding in the qualifying offer, some teams just won't be interested in him, even if they need a catcher.

Still, the Twins extending the qualifying offer to Jeffers suggests they expect to get a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2027 MLB Draft if he leaves in free agency. Whether they get that remains unclear, because Jeffers would need to be guaranteed at least $50 million by his new team after rejecting the QO to get that maximum return. We've projected that Jeffers slightly tops the $45 million J.T. Realmuto got to return to the Phillies last year, but remains under $50 million. That would leave the Twins getting compensation in the form of a selection " between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, which is usually somewhere in the range of the 70th-75th overall selection."

The Yankees make sense for Jeffers, as Austin Wells had a meager .436 OPS against left-handed pitching this past season. Jeffers could be the 1A catcher in New York, with Wells serving as the 1B. Jeffers could also take some at-bats at DH.

2026 Stats: .295/.363/.502, 21 HR, 72 RBI, 37 BB, .865 OPS, 3.6 WAR

For as great a postseason as Jake Bauers had, some teams might still prefer Ty France.

France has always been a tremendous defender at first base. He won the AL Gold Glove in 2025, a season he split between the Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays. He's a finalist in 2026, having posted 15 defensive runs saved and seven outs above average for the San Diego Padres.

France had to settle for a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training with the Padres last offseason, despite being a Gold Glover, because between 2023 and 2025 he hit .247 with a .686 OPS.

However, France was a valuable offensive contributor for the Seattle Mariners in 2021 and 2022. That version of him reemerged in 2026. He had pretty even splits in a season that saw him finish with a 139 OPS+ (100 is league average). If France is just an average offensive player, his defense is good enough for him to play regularly. But he's an All-Star-level player when hitting like he did in 2026.

The Pirates have more than $20 million coming off the books from 2026, just between Brandon Lowe (who has a qualifying offer to decide on) and Marcell Ozuna. A portion of that could be reallocated to France, in hopes that he can help them build on their first winning season since 2018.

2026 Stats: .310/.345/.419, 6 HR, 64 RBI, 34 BB, .765 OPS, 4.1 WAR

Contract Prediction: Two years, $32 million

Everyone agrees Luis Arraez is a great guy. But on the field, he remains one of the sport's most polarizing players.

From a big-picture sense, 2026 was his best season since he posted a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting as a member of the Marlins in 2023. However, his splits between the Giants and Phillies were pretty drastic:

With Giants (105 games): .324 BA, .801 OPS, 3.8 WAR

With Phillies (46 games): .278 BA, .678 OPS, 0.3 WAR

The thing with Arraez is there's not much margin for error at the plate. If he's hitting .310 or better, he brings a ton of offensive value. But he doesn't draw walks, hit for power or steal bases, so if he's hitting .278—as was the case with the Phillies before a left ankle sprain ended his season—he's pretty underwhelming.

To his credit, Arraez worked very hard with Ron Washington in San Francisco to prove he could stay at second base. He still posted minus-four defensive runs saved, but also a career-best 12 outs above average. Given Arraez's career minus-10 DRS and minus-24 OAA at second base, teams might be hesitant to buy into his improvement in 2026. At the same time, he's hell-bent on playing second base and isn't really a better fit anywhere else on the diamond.

Given the bond he formed with Washington and his .361 at Oracle Park, a reunion with the Giants might make sense. Then again, the Giants might prefer to give second-base reps to Marcelo Mayer and/or Casey Schmitt.

Detroit—now known as Fifth Third Park—is a park like San Francisco that many hitters haven't traditionally liked hitting in. Arraez, though, isn't concerned with hitting the ball out of the park. If the Tigers aren't content to hand the reins at second base to Hao-Yu Lee, Arraez could replace Torres and help them rebound from a disappointing 2026.

2026 Stats: .218 BA, 24 HR, 68 RBI, 81 BB, .738 OPS, 2.6 WAR

Contract Prediction: Three years, $70 million

Ian Happ isn't a superstar, but he's a really steady, quality outfielder who should do well in his first trip to free agency.

Yes, he only hit .218 this past year. While he's a switch-hitter, he's significantly better from the left than from the right.

Happ, though, is a career .243 hitter, so even if he doesn't compete for a batting title, he probably won't hit .218 again next year. He's hit 20 or more home runs in six seasons. He has drawn 80 or more walks in each of the last four campaigns.

His calling card remains his glove in left field. Happ is a four-time Gold Glove winner who was again a finalist in 2026, but ultimately lost out to Jackson Chourio. 2026 was one of his finest defensive seasons yet, as he finished the season with 10 defensive runs saved and nine outs above average.

Particularly since he didn't receive a qualifying offer, teams will like Happ as a cheaper alternative to big-ticket outfielders like Seiya Suzuki and Randy Arozarena .

Happ has spent his entire 10-year career with the Cubs. Staying there would make sense, especially if Chicago lets Suzuki walk. Plenty of other teams will likely be interested, though.

2026 Stats: .266/.389/.444, 26 HR, 86 RBI, 94 BB, .874 OPS, 3.6 WAR

Contract Prediction: Accepts one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer

When Jake Bauers presented Pat Murphy with the ball that was the final out in the Brewers' first World Series title, the Milwaukee manager had a hilarious reaction.

"You're going to be a rich f---er. Just remember when you were on that horses--- Yankees team and you guys were all playing for yourself? Just remember, say, 'This is the way we used to do it.'"

Any team that signs Bauers risks never replicating the magic of this Cinderella season. Then again, it wasn't just the postseason; Bauers' .874 OPS topped Rafael Devers, Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman during the regular season.

The qualifying offer might suppress Bauers' market enough that he winds up back in Milwaukee. The Brewers are likely content either way. If he leaves, they still have Andrew Vaughn at first base and will collect draft-pick compensation because he declined the qualifying offer. If he takes the offer, though, they get to retain a playoff hero. He would essentially replace what Brandon Woodruff made on the QO in 2026.

A return to the Yankees—where Bauers played in 84 games in 2023—might be a little too on the nose. Also, with Luis Garcia Jr. and Ben Rice, they don't really need a left-handed-hitting first baseman.

However, New York's other team might make sense. President of baseball operations David Stearns made the regrettable decision to let Pete Alonso walk last offseason. While Alonso launched 43 homers for the Baltimore Orioles, Jorge Polanco hit .148 in just 37 games. Polanco is still under contract for $20 million next season, but as Stearns tries to save his job, he can't count on him, Mark Vientos and Jared Young at first base. The problem is they probably don't want to sign two players with qualifying offers, so the Mets might be more interested in France than Bauers.

Bauers will likely never have a better shot at landing a lucrative multi-year deal. But there might not be enough of a market for him to really cash in, with the QO tying him down. If that's the case, $23.15 million to return to the defending World Series Champions isn't a shabby consolation prize.

2026 Stats: 6-8, 3.29 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 78 K, 101.1 IP, 1.8 WAR

Contract Prediction: Two years, $48 million with $20 million club option for 2029

Clay Holmes was one of the few Mets having an excellent 2026 season before a fractured right fibula, sustained when Spencer Jones scalded a ball off his right leg in mid-May, sidelined him.

By the time Holmes next pitched at the MLB level, he had been traded to the Cubs. Holmes didn't fare nearly as well on the North Side, posting a 4.25 ERA in nine starts with the Cubs and not ultimately appearing in the NLWCS. It's a pretty safe bet that Holmes won't be back with the Cubs.

Nonetheless, he transitioned from late-inning reliever to starter when he joined the Mets in 2025. Even with the blip in Chicago, Holmes is 18-16 with a 3.44 ERA and 3.93 FIP over 267 innings pitched over the last two seasons.

Holmes isn't quite as accomplished as Seth Lugo was when the Kansas City Royals gave him a two-year, $46 million extension with a $17 million club option for a third season. But there are definitely some similarities, as both were long-time relievers who became effective starters. Lugo's deal also covered his age-36 and 37 seasons, unlike Holmes, who will pitch next season at 34. So a slight bump on the Lugo deal that was signed in July of 2025 makes sense.

Trevor Rogers has an uncertain future in Baltimore. Even if there are things to like about Shane Baz, Kyle Bradish and Brandon Young, the O's need to make at least one external addition to their rotation this offseason. Holmes would be a good place to start.

2026 Stats: 64 G, 2.47 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 35-for-39 SV, 1.9 WAR

Contract Prediction: Three years, $55.5 million with $15 million club option for 2030

David Bednar might not be the top reliever available in this year's class, but he is the best traditional closer.

After consecutive All-Star Game appearances for the Pirates in 2022 and 2023, Bednar's career sputtered during a nightmarish 2024 campaign, in which he posted a 5.77 ERA over 62 games.

Since then, Bednar has gotten the train back on the tracks. Since the start of the 2025 season—time split between the Pirates and Yankees—Bednar has a 2.39 ERA and 62 saves. He's proven capable of handling the pressure of pitching in a major market, which should help him in free agency.

Bednar will be 32 next season. Considering Edwin Díaz landed a three-year deal with the Dodgers last winter at a similar age, that might be what we're looking at here in terms of guaranteed seasons. Bednar won't top the record $23 million average annual value Díaz got last winter, but this deal would give him a higher AAV than the $18 million Tanner Scott got from the Dodgers two offseasons ago.

Retaining Bednar makes sense for the Yankees, but if they go in another direction, he should interest pretty much any team that needs relief help. Like Iglesias, it's unclear whether he would be open to opportunities as a setup man.

2026 Stats: 18-5, 2.72 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 149 K, 169 IP, 3.4 WAR

Contract Projection: Two years, $50 million

The Red Sox declined their half of a $30 million mutual option on Gray, per Ron Blum of The Associated Press . That's a bit perplexing because of how well he pitched for them, though it probably doesn't matter because, with a $10 million buyout coming his way, Gray would have opted out even if the Red Sox exercised it.

After an offseason trade from the St. Louis Cardinals, Gray was one of the American League's best pitchers in 2026. He previously finished in the top five in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2015 and 2023, and will likely do so again in 2026.

Gray is a little long in the tooth, having logged more than 2,000 career innings. But he's still really, really good. He's not quite Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer or Chris Sale, but those three have shown how well you can get paid into your late 30s if you remain an elite pitcher. Gray is much better than the aforementioned Kelly, who signed a two-year, $40 million deal heading into his age-37 season last winter.

A Tennessee native, Gray feels like a Brave. He would give the Braves a pretty old starting rotation, but Atlanta was interested in trading for 38-year-old Jacob deGrom at the trade deadline, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic . With that knowledge, why would they shy away from two years for 37-year-old Gray?

2026 Stats: .231/.312/.399, 19 HR, 55 RBI, 56 BB, .711 OPS, 3.5 WAR

Contract Prediction: Three years, $70 million with player opt outs available after 2027 and 2028

Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s contract year—which began with him declaring that he hoped to join the 50/50 club —didn't go as expected.

Chisholm did steal 41 bases, but after hitting 31 home runs in 2025, he regressed to 19 in 2026. Chisholm also slipped to a .711 OPS. It was just not a good season, and if the Yankees had extended a qualifying offer to Chisholm, his best bet might have been to just take that.

Nonetheless, Chisholm is a season removed from a 30/30 campaign in which he finished with an .813 OPS. Some people don't like Chisholm because they feel he was overhyped early in his career. But generally speaking, he's a really productive player, one who is still on the right side of 30 and doesn't have a QO attached to him.

As we've noted, this is a deep class of second basemen this offseason, but Chisholm is near the top of that list. He's also previously played both center field and third base. It will be interesting to see whether any suitors pitch him as a full-time player at either spot or a super utility guy who moves around the diamond.

Whoever lands Chisholm is likely looking at the type of multi-year deal we've seen Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette sign in recent offseasons. Chisholm won't get as much as any of them, but a three-year deal will give him security while also letting him opt out and return to the open market if he bounces back.

The Rangers could install Chisholm as their everyday second baseman, with Ezequiel Duran able to play pretty much anywhere on the diamond.

2026 Stats: 10-11, 4.42 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 156 SO, 169 IP, 1.9 WAR

Contract Prediction: Three years, $73 million with player opt out available after 2028

Freddy Peralta's back-of-the-baseball-card numbers for his contract year were pretty disastrous. How he fares in free agency will depend on whether teams believe in a late-season resurgence after his trade from the Mets to the Rays.

Between September and October, Peralta posted a 1.82 ERA across 49.1 innings pitched. That's really impressive, considering the high-leverage situations it came in. But the first five months of the season still happened.

Earlier in his career, Peralta was touted for his ability to strike batters out at a high clip. He dipped to 8.3 K/9 in 2026, a pretty notable drop-off from the 10.4 mark he posted the prior season en route to a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young voting. The man nicknamed "Fastball Freddy" received a 97 Stuff+ grade on his fastball in 2026, below the 100 average.

Peralta should still get a multi-year deal, but as recently as this past spring, he told Jon Heyman of The New York Post that he wanted a seven- or eight-year deal. That ain't happening.

In December 2021, Marcus Stroman signed a three-year, $71 million deal with the Cubs after spending his contract year with the Mets just before the owners locked out the players. The deal included an opt-out after the second season.

The similarities here could prove to be striking, especially if our projection of Peralta signing with the Cubs comes true.

2026 Stats: 10-11, 4.03 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 157 K, 169.2 IP, 4.0 WAR

Contract Prediction: Five years, $110 million with player opt out available after 2028

In free agency, the goal should be to pay for future production, not past production. There will be at least one team—if not multiple—this offseason that convinces themselves that the best is yet to come from Trevor Rogers.

The best glimpses of Rogers make him look like a frontline starter:

As a Marlins player, he finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2021.

He was downright dominant with the Orioles in 2025, posting a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts.

In the second half of 2026, he posted a 3.52 ERA in 13 starts.

Between 2022 and 2024, Rogers made just 52 starts and posted an unsightly 5.09 ERA.

Across his first 17 starts of 2026, Rogers posted a 4.48 ERA.

He did make 30 starts in 2026, but had never made more than 25 prior to that.

Some panned the Phillies for giving Zack Wheeler a five-year, $118 million free-agent deal before the 2020 season. That turned out to be one of the most team-friendly contracts in MLB history, as Wheeler led all starters in WAR over the lifetime of that pact. Of course, that's the best-case scenario.

If a team thinks it can get the most out of Rogers—and won't be turned off by the fact that he probably won't pitch 200 innings a season—it will be the Dodgers. The deal projected might seem rich, but if Rogers puts it all together, it will be a bargain. That's why an opt-out makes sense, although not until after the second season. Any team that gives up draft-pick compensation to sign him after he declines the Orioles' qualifying offer won't want to be guaranteed only one season.

2026 Stats: .260/.331/.493, 35 HR, 96 RBI, 62 BB, .824 OPS, 4.9 WAR

Contract Prediction: Three years, $75.3 million with $25 million club option for 2030

It's perhaps unfortunate for Brandon Lowe that he got traded before a season when the Rays ultimately went to the World Series. But he performed about as well as he could in a contract year, setting himself up to cash in as he makes his first trip to free agency despite being extended a qualifying offer.

Lowe was an All-Star snub, and by season's end, his numbers looked as good as anyone else's in the NL, regardless of position. We're not just talking about his offensive stats, as Lowe was a Gold Glove finalist after posting 13 defensive runs saved and 15 outs above average at second base. That was quite a development for someone regarded as an average-to-below-average defender for much of his career.

Lowe's main drawback throughout his career has been staying on the field. Between 2022 and 2024, Lowe played in just 281 of a possible 486 regular-season games. Over the past two seasons, though, Lowe has appeared in 284 of his team's 324 games, a much better rate.

Lowe seemed to fit well in Pittsburgh, but whenever you're talking about making this type of investment, it's hard to bet on owner Bob Nutting writing the necessary check. Some of the same teams we've mentioned in connection with Arraez and Chisholm make sense for Lowe. Boston would be among those, as Lowe could take over at second base, allowing Curtis Mead to compete with Caleb Durbin for time at third base.

2026 Stats: 76 G, 2.83 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 2.8 WAR

Contract Prediction: Four years, $80 million

Since the start of the 2025 season, Adrian Morejon has been worth 5.1 WAR. During that period, FanGraphs says the only relievers more valuable than Morejon in WAR are Mason Miller (5.9) and Cade Smith (5.3).

That means that over the past two seasons, Morejon has accumulated more WAR than Jhoan Duran (5.0), Aroldis Chapman (4.2), and Trevor Megill (4.0), among other elite closers. Of course, the difference here is that Morejon has been utilized as a setup man, not a closer.

There's little doubt Morejon has the stuff to pitch in the ninth inning. However, not having to be the closer might make him more appealing, because teams with established closers could still be in on him.

The one real concern with Morejon is that he didn't pitch in Games 3 or 4 of the NLDS because he dealt with "stickiness" in his left shoulder. Granted, that came after he took down multiple innings in each of his first two postseason appearances. Any team that signs him this winter will be betting he was just tired and won't need shoulder surgery moving forward.

Teams are desperate for relief help, especially from the left side. Tanner Scott got a four-year, $72 million deal from the Dodgers two years ago. He's a similar profile in that he can close, but he could just as easily pitch in the seventh or eighth. Scott got that going into his age-30 season. Morejon will pitch next season at 28, so it wouldn't be unreasonable for the Scott Boras client to open free agency looking for five years. Teams are just so hesitant to go that long with relievers. So four years, but becoming the highest-paid reliever in terms of average annual value outside of Díaz would be a pretty nice outcome for Morejon.

Earlier in these predictions, we projected that Raisel Iglesias would leave the Braves because we think they could invest more in someone like Morejon. If not the Braves, the Yankees and Phillies each make quite a bit of sense as well.

2026 Stats: .306/.383/.609, 39 HR, 106 RBI, 68 BB, .991 OPS

Contract Prediction: Five years, $100 million

Teruaki Sato won the Central League MVP in 2025. After following that up with Japan's Triple Crown in 2026, a second consecutive MVP might be how he bids adieu to Nippon Professional Baseball.

Sato's Japanese team—the Hanshin Tigers—posted him on Sunday, opening a 45-day window for him to negotiate with MLB teams. With the impending lockout, he'll need to decide sooner than 45 days.

Where Sato lands this offseason will probably come down to what teams believe he can stick at third base. Heyman shared this insight on Sato back in July:

"Like Munetaka Murakami, who's thrived at 1B slugging for the White Sox, Sato, a former Central League MVP with a 1.026 OPS, has "good pop" but is "questionable" at 3B, via scouts."

There were also concerns about Murakami's ability to hit velocity last offseason, which is why he likely accepted a two-year, $34 million deal with the Chicago White Sox. (For what it's worth, Murakami hit 35 homers in 127 games as a rookie, so the league might just have been wrong about him.)

Murakami wasn't viewed as a third baseman, which probably hurt his market too. It seems more teams will think of Sato as a third baseman, but obviously he's much more valuable there than at first base, left field or DH.

Ultimately, if Sato hits, teams will make it work.

The Phillies and Rangers are among the clubs linked to Sato, but it's always hard to tell which teams are doing due diligence versus being aggressive suitors.

The Yankees have a history of stars transitioning from Asian countries, most notably Hideki Matsui. If they think Sato can stick at the hot corner, it's hard to overstate how much of an offensive upgrade he'd be over Ryan McMahon.

2026 Stats: 12-10, 3.21 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 159 K, 185 IP, 2.6 WAR

Contract Prediction: Four years, $120 million

Michael King might be best cast as a No. 2 on a World Series contender, but he's a free agent in a relatively weak class without a qualifying offer attached, so he's going to make out very well.

King was a free agent last offseason but was saddled with a QO and came off a season in which injuries limited him to just 15 starts. Still, the Padres gave him a three-year, $75 million deal that let him opt out after both 2026 and 2027. Ultimately, King opted out after a 2026 campaign in which he posted a 3.21 ERA over 185 innings pitched.

Since he'll pitch next season at 32, King might be limited in how long a deal he gets. Some teams might also worry that his K/9 dipped to 7.7 in 2026, down from 10.4 in 2024, when he finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting.

Still, King has a 3.15 ERA in three seasons in San Diego since the Friars acquired him in the trade that sent Juan Soto to the Yankees. He posted a 0.64 ERA in three postseason outings in 2026, including a two-inning save in NLDS Game 3. With so much uncertainty in the Padres' rotation, it makes too much sense for them to bring him back.

2026 Stats: .281/.381/.484, 26 HR, 79 RBI, 68 BB, .865 OPS, 5.5 WAR

Contract Prediction: Five years, $140 million

Randy Arozarena posted an .865 OPS in 2026, a pretty remarkable accomplishment for a guy who played his home games at T-Mobile Park, a stadium notoriously unfriendly to hitters. Had he been on pretty much any other team, his 2026 offensive numbers likely would have been more gaudy.

With that said, Arozarena's .865 OPS was more than 100 points higher than the .756 OPS he posted between 2023 and 2025. Yes, he'll benefit if he signs to play in a more hitter-friendly stadium than Seattle, but there is a risk that if you sign Arozarena, you pay an A-level price and get a B-level player. And with minus-five defensive runs saved and minus-26 outs above average in left field in his career, Arozarena doesn't provide a ton as a defender.

Nonetheless, teams are desperate for impact right-handed hitting. Arozarena is also a red-light player, having previously set a single-season postseason record with 10 homers for the Rays in the 2020 postseason.

The Phillies need a right-handed bat in October. While they probably would prefer not to sign another player in their 30s to a long-term deal, Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies have been looking for an impact right-handed hitting outfielder for years. They may not be able to afford to pass on signing either Arozarena or Suzuki.

2026 Stats: .270/.368/.473, 26 HR, 86 RBI, 81 BB, .841 OPS, 4.5 WAR

Contract Projection: Five years, $145 million

Seiya Suzuki performed well enough in the final season of his five-year, $85 million deal that he figures to get another half-decade commitment this winter at a much higher overall value.

Suzuki has been remarkably consistent offensively in five MLB seasons, posting an impressive .823 OPS. He's doubled exactly 31 times in three of the last four years. 2026 was one of those years. It was also a campaign in which Suzuki hit 26 home runs, drove in 86 runs, and recorded a career-high 81 walks.

Defensively, Suzuki shocked in 2026. The Cubs largely utilized him as a DH in 2025, with some reps in both corner outfield spots mixed in. When Suzuki played right field in 2025, he wasn't very good, posting minus-four defensive runs saved and minus-one out above average in 282 innings. But the Cubs moved Suzuki back to right field full-time in 2026 after Kyle Tucker departed in free agency. He responded by posting 14 DRS and four OAA across 972.2 innings in right field in 2026.

It will be interesting to see how much teams buy into Suzuki's career-best year in the field, but with the dearth of impact right-handed hitting available today, he'll do really well in free agency after he declines the Cubs' qualifying offer.

Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported during the waning days of a disappointing regular season for the Blue Jays that the team was "expected to pursue" Suzuki in free agency. If Toronto signs Suzuki and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rebounds in 2027, the Blue Jays could be a contender not only in the AL East, but in the junior circuit as a whole.

2026 Stats: 12-7, 2.72 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 186 SO, 158.2 IP, 5.2 WAR

Contract Prediction: Nine years, $387 million with player opt out available after 2031

Perhaps Tarik Skubal would have gotten a bigger deal last offseason if he had become a free agent after his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award. The Scott Boras client should still set records after a 2026 season that he split between the Tigers and Dodgers.

Skubal's free-agent stock appeared to be in jeopardy when he needed surgery in May to remove loose bodies from his pitching elbow. However, Skubal underwent the innovative "NanoScope" procedure and ultimately returned to the mound in under six weeks. Teams will have to weigh Skubal's health history—he had Tommy John surgery in 2017 as a collegiate pitcher and flexor tendon surgery in August of 2022—when considering a deal of this length.

Health really is the only thing that could give teams pause about Skubal. Since July of 2023, he's been far and away the best pitcher in the sport, going 50-20 with a 2.47 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 10.88 K/9 and 21.3 WAR, which FanGraphs says leads all qualified starters over that period.

Perhaps the only other thing that could work against Skubal is that it's unclear how many teams—particularly given the uncertain labor situation—will have ownership authorization to offer the type of deal it would take to secure his services.

The incumbent Dodgers and the Mets are likely the top two suitors. Both teams would be in big trouble if they sign Skubal to a record-setting deal and then the next CBA includes a salary cap, even if it's phased in. That might be a risk they have to take, especially if Skubal wants to sign before the lockout. ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote earlier this week that "the expectation is he will sign before the Dec. 1 lockout."

Also complicating things for the Dodgers is uncertainty over investigations into owner Mark Walter's financial dealings by both the SEC and the Southern District of New York.

In 2021, the Dodgers acquired Max Scherzer at the trade deadline, but he ultimately left in free agency to sign a three-year, $130 million deal with the Mets. Skubal is obviously much younger than Scherzer was then, but a similar scenario could play out here.

David Stearns might not be inclined to give long-term deals to starting pitchers, but his job is on the line and this is arguably the best arm in the sport. The Mets have realized they can't throw money at every problem, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't flex Steve Cohen's financial muscle when they can.

The nine-year, $324 million deal the Yankees signed Gerrit Cole to as a free agent ahead of the 2020 season could offer a blueprint for the type of deal Skubal will get. Granted, Cole was entering his age-29 season, while Skubal will be 30 in November. But you can make a strong case that Skubal is more accomplished entering free agency than Cole was. So a nine-year deal makes sense, as does an opt-out after Skubal's age-34 season, like Cole's.

As for the average annual value, Wheeler currently holds the record at $42 million. We've projected Skubal to get $43 million, which would give him both a new AAV and a total value record among starting pitchers.