Starting pitching targets for Padres this offseason

Every time the offseason rolls around, the San Diego Padres seem to be in desperate need of starting pitching. Most of that is due to A.J. Preller's inability to sign a starter to a long-term contract. That should change this year, with San Diego only having three certain starters returning (Joe Musgrove, JP Sears and Randy Vásquez). For the sake of this exercise, I won't be including potential returners like Michael King ($28 million player option) or Nick Pivetta ($14 million club option).

Despite faltering from his 2024-25 Cy Young form, Skubal was still phenomenal in 2026. The southpaw dominated, posting a 2.72 ERA and 0.96 WHIP across 158 2/3 innings of work. Skubal will be the most sought after free agent on the market, pitcher or otherwise. Despite plenty of questions surrounding how the offseason may progress, Skubal is still set up for a big payday.

That's the big problem for San Diego signing him. Their coffers haven't been particualry deep in years past, but new ownership may change that. The question is whether it's worth it to make one big signing or several smaller ones. Skubal would implode any other potential to sign other marquee free agents. It might be better for the Friars to pursue two mid-tier options instead.

Rogers had an otherworldly 2025 campaign before majorly regressing this season. The southpaw posted a 1.81 ERA in '25 despite struggling to return from a right knee injury. Because of that, Rogers made just 18 starts (109.2 IP). He took a step back in '26 with a 4.03 ERA across 169 2/3 innings.

That said, the 29-year-old has his whole career ahead of him and could set up San Diego's rotation for years to come. The Padres haven't had a dominant starter from the left side of the mound in quite some time. However, the questions surrounding his health could hurt his case as a reliable pitcher to sign.

After being expected to retire for much of this season, Gray announced that he won't be leaving MLB quite so soon. The veteran right-hander desperately wants to win a World Series and would likely sign with a contending team, even if it was for less guaranteed dollars.

Gray is coming off of an incredible season with the Boston Red Sox (2.72 ERA, 169.0 IP). The question is if that dominance can continue. The 36-year-old hasn't proven his ability to be consistent in years past. Despite having five sub-3.00 ERA seasons in his career, none have ever been consecutive. Whether Gray can catch lightning in a bottle a second time remains to be seen until a team picks him up.

Griffin has drawn the spotlight lately after his heroics in Game 1 of the ALCS against the Tampa Bay Rays. After a shaky first inning, Griffin quieted the Rays for three more frames. The starter was traded from the Washington Nationals and has been a solid option in the Cleveland Guardians' rotation.

The 31-year-old finally got a shot in 2026 and ran with it. He pitched to a 3.60 ERA in 172 2/3 innings of work in his rookie season. Griffin was incredible during his earlier stint this year with Washington, but struggled once joining the Guards. If he's able to return to form in 2027, he could be a great value signing for the Padres.

The Chicago Cubs' left-hander has yet to replicate the beauty of his 2024 rookie season in MLB (2.91 ERA, 173.1 IP). He's still posted a sub-4.00 ERA in both 2025 (3.73 ERA) and 2026 (3.77 ERA), but they have certainly been a step back. However, Imanaga is coming off of a career-high innings pitched in 2026. That could be a massive addition for San Diego's pitching-hungry roster.

Imanaga also won't have a qualifying offer attached to him after rejecting the QO from Chicago last season. That means the Padres wouldn't need to give up a draft pick if they signed Imanaga. The Friars have plenty of options to turn to, but Imanaga could be a truly great move for San Diego to bolster their starting group.

Itoh will be the top free agent starting pitcher coming over from NPB in Japan. Across 1008 2/3 innings in Japanese professional baseball, the righty owns a 2.91 ERA. He's coming off of a relatively tougher year in 2026 with a 3.18 ERA across 172 2/3 innings pitched. Itoh has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in four of his last six years.

The righty pitched in both the 2023 and '26 World Baseball Classic. However, Itoh hasn't faced many major leaguers apart from his 6 1/3 innings between the two tournaments. That could make it tough for Itoh to adapt to MLB. But, he seems ready to make the transition, and has had proven success in Japan. The 29-year-old could be a huge boost for San Diego if he acclimates well to MLB.

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