MLB Report Cards for Every Team With 1 Month to Go

With school starting back up around the country, there is no time like the present for some report card grades on every Major League Baseball team's 2026 season.

To be clear from the outset, each team's grade is entirely based on how its winning percentage compares to its preseason win total.

For instance, if both the Dodgers (103.5 preseason win total) and the Rockies (55.5 preseason win total) were sitting at .500—they aren't, but just go with it—the Dodgers would get a big, fat F while the Rockies would be given an A+.

For each team, we'll discuss a pleasant surprise, as well as a sizable disappointment.

Where appropriate, the analysis will focus on how well (or poorly) the team has been playing as of late, but, again, these grades are for the full season and are based on how good the team was supposed to be .

Despite specifying that twice, we're probably about to make some Red Sox and Dodgers fans very angry.

Statistics and records are current through the start of play on Thursday, August 27.

ARI | ATH | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CIN | CLE | COL | CWS | DET | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | WSH

Pleasant Surprise : LHP Eduardo Rodríguez

For the first month of the season, the correct answer here would have been Ildemaro Vargas. But while Vargas has a .562 OPS since early May, Rodríguez has continued to shove as the ace of this staff. After successive years with an ERA just north of 5.00, he has it all the way down to 2.50 this year after back-to-back scoreless outings. It's what the Diamondbacks were hoping for when they signed him during the 2023-24 offseason. It just took a while to happen.

Last year was a dud for Gallen, but he did finish strong with a 3.32 ERA over his final 11 starts—virtually identical to his 3.34 ERA from 2020-24. Hard to blame the Snakes for betting on a bounce-back year from their former ace, but Gallen has gone from dud to disaster, presently on the 60-day IL with a 6.34 ERA.

The Diamondbacks are hanging tight in the NL wild-card race, still hoping to get Corbin Burnes back on the mound before the season ends. Nolan Arenado looked hopelessly washed up for the first couple of weeks, but he is tied for the team lead with 21 home runs. Could he be the reason they sneak into October?

Preseason Over/Under : 75.5 wins Current Trajectory : 64.1 wins Recent Returns : 15-43 since June 20

The 22-year-old Bolte wasn't even one of the Athletics' top five prospects coming into the season, but he relentlessly mashed his way through Triple-A with a 1.076 OPS (and 17 stolen bases) in 37 games played before getting the call to the majors. Though he hasn't been anywhere near that potent, he has been a solid, everyday player and an unexpected potential building block for the future.

We Were Expecting More : DH Brent Rooker

Over the past three seasons, Rooker had an .853 OPS, averaging 33 home runs and 90 RBI per year. This season was a much different story, limited by injuries to just 48 games and posting an OPS of .670. Fingers crossed that he comes back in 2027 from his knee surgery as good as new.

Things started out so promising for the A's, who were sitting at 38-38 at roughly the midpoint of their schedule. But the wheels came off in a hurry, as injuries ravaged the lineup while the pitching staff devolved from "not great" to "big yikes." Over the past two months, they've been almost as bad as they were at their lowest point during the (evidently still ongoing) rebuild.

Preseason Over/Under : 86.5 wins Current Trajectory : 95.0 wins Recent Returns : 8-10 since August 7

The surprise here isn't that Dubón has provided value as a versatile defender and a respectable hitter. He also did that in each of the last three seasons with the Astros. Rather, the surprise is how indispensable he has become for Atlanta, even (for some reason) batting cleanup on both Tuesday and Wednesday against the Dodgers. Not bad for a guy who Houston decided wasn't worth paying in his final year of arbitration.

We Were Expecting More : SS Ha-Seong Kim

For one brief moment on Wednesday night, Kim was worth his $20M salary, delivering the walk-off hit in a pivotal win over the Dodgers. Prior to that, however, he had an almost impossibly bad .230 OPS for the year, and he still hasn't had an extra base hit in 2026. He missed the first six weeks of the season with a finger injury, and then had just one single in his next 45 at-bats.

This was an A++ grade back in early June when the Braves had the best record in baseball at 45-21, but they have been sputtering in place for nearly three months at this point. The starting rotation has turned quite a corner in recent weeks, but now the lineup is as riddled with black holes as it was throughout June. Can they hang on and win the NL East?

Preseason Over/Under : 85.5 wins Current Trajectory : 79.1 wins Recent Returns : 11-12 since August 1

After making 12 starts with a 6.24 ERA in 2025, Young wasn't supposed to be part of the equation here. But between Zach Eflin immediately suffering a season-ending injury and Dean Kremer making just two appearances in the first three months, the O's pretty much had to ride with Young. Lo and behold, he has been one of their best pitchers, making 22 starts with a 3.50 ERA.

We Were Expecting More : SS Gunnar Henderson

Henderson has 20 home runs, which is better than last year's total of 17, but he simply has not been the same hitter that he used to be. He had a 155 OPS+ two years ago. Now, he's below league-average with a mark of 95.

After an aggressive offseason headlined by the signings of Pete Alonso and Chris Bassitt and the acquisitions of Shane Baz and Taylor Ward via trade, the Orioles were supposed to bounce back in a big way from last year's 75-87 disappointment. That hasn't been the case, even though the Polar Bear has had a great first year with them. There's still hope for a spot in the postseason, though, if they can finish with a flourish.

Preseason Over/Under : 87.5 wins Current Trajectory : 88.9 wins Recent Returns : 18-9 since July 29

When the Red Sox acquired Bennett from the Nationals for Luis Perales in mid-December, there was no good reason to believe he would be pitching in the majors this season. But a litany of injuries paved the way and this rookie southpaw has made the most of his opportunity. He has come back to earth a bit in August, but he has made 15 starts with a 3.49 ERA.

We Were Expecting More : LHP Garrett Crochet

Strong cases could also be made for Roman Anthony and Jarren Duran, but Crochet was neck-and-neck with Tarik Skubal for last year's AL Cy Young and was expected to be right there again this year. Instead, he had a 6.30 ERA in six starts and hasn't been seen since April due to a shoulder injury.

It's a laughable grade if you happen to have forgotten that we're grading the entire season or that the Red Sox started out 32-46. They've been the best team in baseball since late June, but it has taken those two months of sheer dominance to get them back on track to reach their preseason win total.

Preseason Over/Under : 88.5 wins Current Trajectory : 91.9 wins Recent Returns : 5-8 since August 13

Pleasant Surprise : CF Pete Crow-Armstrong

Surely, PCA was expected to be good, but not "front runner for NL MVP good." He finished ninth in last year's NL MVP race with 31 home runs and 35 stolen bases. However, he limped to the finish line with a .585 OPS over his final 50 games, ending the year at a mark of .768. Now, he's at .924, battling Shohei Ohtani and James Wood for the best OPS in the NL, with a realistic shot at a 40/40 campaign.

We Were Expecting More : RHP Edward Cabrera

The Cubs gave up top prospect Owen Caissie (and more) to acquire Cabrera in January, banking on him becoming a reliable staple in the middle of this rotation. Though initial returns were promising, he has an 8.57 ERA and three separate trips to the IL since early May. (At least he has made 15 starts, though. The Cubs were also expecting more than two appearances from Cade Horton, as well as Justin Steele pitching at some point.)

The Cubs went 7-22 from May 9 to June 10, but they have otherwise been the best team in baseball at 69-36. Similar to the Red Sox, though, that rough patch still counts in this exercise for a team that is marginally ahead of schedule over the course of the full season. If the improved pitching over the past month is for real, look out.

Preseason Over/Under : 67.5 wins Current Trajectory : 85.3 wins Recent Returns : 25-24 since July 1

Detroit's Kevin McGonigle is going to win AL Rookie of the Year, but Peters could be the first runner-up in that vote. Not too shabby for a guy who was playing with the Savannah Bananas five years ago and who was traded for "cash or a player to be named later" eight months ago. Peters hit for the cycle shortly before the All-Star Break and this week has homered in five consecutive games.

We Were Expecting More : RHP Shane Smith

As a rookie in 2025, Smith made 29 starts with a 3.81 ERA. He was arguably the MVP of the White Sox, and the only one selected to represent them at the All-Star Game. If you had told us five months ago that he would make just three appearances with a 10.80 ERA, Chicago having a winning record right now would have been even more inconceivable.

Save for going 18-10 in May, the White Sox have just been hanging around as a .500 team, never much feeling like a serious threat to do damage in October, even as the rest of the AL Central and the AL West keeps propping them up for a first-round bye. But even "hanging around as a .500 team" is better than pretty much anyone expected from this squad after three consecutive seasons with at least 100 losses.

Preseason Over/Under : 80.5 wins Current Trajectory : 76.2 wins Recent Returns : 7-13 since August 7

In the olden days before Wins Above Replacement became the be-all end-all for awards debates, Stewart would be running away with NL ROY. He has 28 home runs, 12 stolen bases, an .806 OPS and an MLB-best 100 RBI. Stewart showed a lot of promise for his couple of weeks in the majors at the end of last season, but no one saw this coming.

We Were Expecting More : RF Noelvi Marté

There was a stretch of nearly two months last summer/fall in which it looked like Marté had finally arrived. The former top prospect had an OPS of nearly .900 during a 47-game run, which included switching from third base to right field. But in 63 games played this year, he has a .550 OPS and was recently sent back to Triple-A.

Early on, the Reds were the kings of one-run games, ending April in sole possession of first place in the NL Central. Since then, however, they've gone 43-60 with the lowest scoring offense in the National League. Stewart and Chase Burns have blossomed into stars worth building around, but the Reds have a lot of holes to fill this winter.

Preseason Over/Under : 79.5 wins Current Trajectory : 82.2 wins Recent Returns : 9-2 since August 15

Messick made a solid first impression last season, posting a 2.72 ERA in seven starts over the final six weeks. But he barely made the cut for the Opening Day rotation, serving as Cleveland's No. 5 starter before blossoming into one of their All-Stars. He has made 26 starts with a 2.50 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 9.1 K/9.

We Were Expecting More : LHP Logan Allen

Allen was one of the staples of Cleveland's rotation in 2025, making 73 big league starts over the past three seasons. But after a horrific run through spring training (10.0 IP, 20 ER), he was the odd man out of this group, making just one appearance in the Guardians' first 98 games. (He is presently back in the bigs as one of their middle relievers, though.)

Things were looking bleak two weeks ago, but the Guardians made the most of their nine consecutive games against the Giants, Rockies and Angels, vaulting back into sole possession of the AL's final wild card spot. We shall see if it's the beginning of one of their patented strong finishes or just a blip where they happened to find some offense for a change against bad teams.

Preseason Over/Under : 55.5 wins Current Trajectory : 63.3 wins Recent Returns : 14-26 since July 8

Though Rumfield hit pretty well over the past two seasons in the Yankees farm system, it was unlikely he would ever factor into their big league equation. So they shipped him to the Rocky Mountains in late January, where he has blossomed into arguably the second-best player on the team. That he has an OPS of at least .800 both home and away might be his most noteworthy feat.

We Were Expecting More : SS Ezequiel Tovar

Aside from that hopelessly bad Kris Bryant contract, Tovar is the one player with whom the Rockies have a financially substantial contract. But in year No. 3 of that seven-year, $63.5M deal, things are looking grim. Tovar went from 26 home runs and 45 doubles in 2024 to a .602 OPS this season. That's after an impressive run over the past few weeks, too. He was down in the mid-.500s in early August.

It's funny/sad that the second-worst record and the second-worst run differential in the majors is good enough to classify Colorado as better than anticipated. The Rockies might be able to avoid a fourth consecutive season with at least 100 losses, but it is definitely going to be an eighth straight year with a winning percentage of .460 or worse. And yet, any preseason bets on "Colorado over 55.5 wins" will be paying out pretty soon.

Kevin McGonigle has been the rookie star in Detroit, but that's hardly a surprise, coming from the top prospect who signed an eight-year, $150M deal. Melton's dominance, though, has definitely been unexpected. Since missing the first two months with an elbow injury, he has made 16 starts with a 1.86 ERA.

We Were Expecting More : LHP Framber Valdez

Half of Valdez's 26 appearances have been quality starts, including four of his first five after signing with the Tigers. But seemingly every time they've needed him to twirl a gem to stop the bleeding, he has turned in a dud. While his 4.35 ERA isn't exactly dreadful, it's nowhere close to what Detroit had in mind when it made Valdez the highest-paid pitcher in the American League.

Remove the 6-22 record from May, and the Tigers would be 56-49 with a plus-118 run differential—good enough for the AL's No. 2 seed. Instead, they sit nine games below .500, a massive disappointment that prompted the club to trade two quality arms, Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize.

After posting a 5.51 ERA with the Rockies from 2023 to 2024, Lambert spent last season in Japan, where he had a 3.98 ERA. He ended up with the Astros on a minor league deal and only got called up in mid-April after Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier and Tatsuya Imai all landed on the IL. But look at Lambert now, leading the team in innings pitched by a sizable margin, and with a solid 3.66 ERA.

Credit where it's due: Altuve is still providing some value in his age-36 season. Not many second basemen in MLB history can say that. But his play has declined for a third consecutive season. (And this is only year No. 2 of the five-year extension he signed in 2024.)

With Yordan Alvarez chasing a triple crown, the Astros really ought to be running away with what has been a pathetic AL West. But with few exceptions, the starting rotation has been a season-long mess, rated by FanGraphs as the worst in the majors. That's not an easy hurdle to overcome.

Got to love it when a journeyman suddenly has a moment in the sun. Dobnak had logged just 15.0 innings in the majors from 2022-25 with the Twins and spent the first couple months of this season at Seattle's Triple-A affiliate before the Royals purchased him from the Mariners. Since getting called up in early July, the 31-year-old has logged 51.2 innings across 10 appearances with a 1.92 ERA.

Cole Ragans was supposed to be the ace of this staff, but he made eight mostly underwhelming starts before undergoing season-ending UCL surgery. Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino and Jonathan India were supposed to be major pieces of Bobby Witt Jr.'s supporting cast, but they've missed a combined total of 224 games. Even Witt missed about three weeks, which damaged his case for AL MVP. The injury bug eventually comes for everyone, but it hit KC hard this year.

The recent nine-game winning streak almost spared the Royals from a failing grade. However, it did little to change the larger picture for a team that had been 24 games below .500 and flirting with the worst record in baseball. With so many key players missing significant chunks of the season, the Royals simply could not stay afloat.

Preseason Over/Under : 70.5 wins Current Trajectory : 62.9 wins Recent Returns : 11-21 since July 22

A rookie who wasn't one of the Angels' top prospects, Ureña started out the year as a middle reliever, spent a couple of weeks down at Triple-A and then came back as a budding ace out of nowhere. Since returning in late April, he has made 22 starts with a 2.98 ERA. He's one behind Reid Detmers for the team lead in quality starts and just might be the long-awaited young arm they can start to build around.

We Were Expecting More : LHP Yusei Kikuchi

An All-Star just last season, Kikuchi was supposed to be one of the stalwarts of this rotation. However, after seven sub-par starts (5.81 ERA), he landed on the IL for nearly four months before finally returning this past Sunday—and struggling again. He was never going to be enough to save their season, but he could've at least helped make things a little more respectable.

It speaks volumes to the current state of this franchise that the Angels have the worst record in the American League and they aren't all that far off from preseason expectations. It was an entertaining first month between José Soriano blossoming into a star and Mike Trout looking like his old self for a change. They still found their way back into the AL West basement, though.

Preseason Over/Under : 103.5 wins Current Trajectory : 97.4 wins Recent Returns : 11-6 since August 8

Pleasant Surprise : LHP Justin Wrobleski

Had the Dodgers' rotation been at full strength throughout the season, it's very likely Wrobleski never would have started a game. But that hypothetical lasted about five minutes, with this southpaw entering the fray in Game No. 10. Over the course of his next 16 appearances, he had a 2.45 ERA and an 11-2 record, becoming a most unexpected All-Star.

Even disregarding the fact that the Dodgers gave him a preposterous $60M AAV on a four-year deal, Tucker has been a shell of his former self. His worst OPS over the past seven seasons was an .808 mark in 2022, when he still accumulated 30 home runs, 107 RBI and 25 stolen bases. He's currently at a .680 OPS, on pace for maybe 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases.

It's a harsh grade for the second-best record in baseball, but can you honestly say the Dodgers have been as good as you thought they'd be? After adding Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz to a back-to-back World Series winning roster, the Dodgers really ought to have been able to moonwalk their way to home-field advantage throughout the postseason. But, as has been the case in each of the past two seasons, they hit quite a rough patch in July/August.

Lopez had been one of Miami's more valuable position players over the past two seasons, but mostly because of his value added on defense while posting a .680 OPS. This year, he has one of the top batting averages in all of baseball and an OPS of nearly .800. If Luis Arraez had gotten traded across league lines, Lopez would be the front runner for the NL batting crown right now.

We Were Expecting More : RHP Pete Fairbanks

The Marlins are paying more than $4 million to only three players this season: Sandy Alcantara ($17 million), Pete Fairbanks ($13.3 million) and $10 million of Giancarlo Stanton's salary, retained from the trade eight years ago. Stanton arguably has provided more value to Miami than Fairbanks, who owns a 6.06 ERA and returned to the IL this week.

Not much was expected from the Marlins, who traded away both Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers in the span of a week over the offseason. But theirs has been a tale of three seasons: eight games below .500 through the end of May, 26-8 for the next six weeks and eight games below .500 since.

Preseason Over/Under : 84.5 wins Current Trajectory : 99.9 wins Recent Returns : 23-14 since All-Star Break

Milwaukee ranking dead last in the majors in home runs has become an inescapable narrative, but Bauers is doing his best to shoulder the load. His previous career high was 12 home runs, entering 2026 with a career OPS of .672. He enters the home stretch sitting at 23 and .884, respectively.

We Were Expecting More : DH Christian Yelich

The 2018 NL MVP is definitely in the back nine of his career at this point, but Yelich was the star of this lineup just one year ago, giving the Brewers 29 home runs and 103 RBI. He has just nine home runs in 93 games played this season, though, currently with a sub-.700 OPS for what would be the first time in his career. (Knowing this makes it even more absurd that Milwaukee ranks third in the majors in runs scored.)

The Brewers set a franchise record with 97 wins last season and are on pace for slightly more than that this year. But, per usual, they were underestimated in the offseason after losing what had been one of the most important players on their roster. One of these years, we'll learn.

After trading away basically the entire bullpen at last year's deadline, the Twins entered this season with a great big question mark at closer. Even two months into the season, they had 14 saves divvied up among 11 relievers, none of whom had more than two. They finally handed the reins to Gómez, though, about a month after they acquired him from the Rays in late April. He has yet to blow a save in 25 chances (19 saves, six holds) and had a 1.85 ERA through his first 44 appearances.

We Were Expecting More : RHP Simeon Woods Richardson

Over the previous two seasons, Woods Richardson logged 245.0 innings with a 4.11 ERA. And with Pablo López lost for the year early in spring training, he was the clear No. 4 in this rotation heading into the season. He pitched his way right out of a job, though, with a 7.74 ERA in his 12 appearances before Minnesota designated him for assignment. (Making matters worse for the Twins, he has since made seven relief appearances for the Blue Jays with a 1.04 ERA.)

Minnesota entered August with a winning record and elected to do some buying at the trade deadline, adding Dean Kremer, Jeff Hoffman and A.J. Minter. Unfortunately, the Twins have cratered since then and are going to need to flip the script immediately to salvage a wild card spot. Hosting Cleveland from Sept. 11-13 looms extremely large.

Preseason Over/Under : 90.5 wins Current Trajectory : 73.1 wins Recent Returns : 17-11 since July 26

In Ewing, Carson Benge and Nolan McLean, the Mets have had three solid rookies throughout this mess of a season. But while Benge was starting on Opening Day and McLean was the preseason favorite for NL ROY, Ewing kind of came out of nowhere; a mid-May Hail Mary by a team that was both banged up and 10 games below .500. But he has started darn near every game since and become a major asset in the field and on the basepaths.

Plenty of options here, ranging from Marcus Semien and Bo Bichette to Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and Kodai Senga. But we'll go with the tandem of Jorge Polanco and Mark Vientos as the most glaring source of the Mets' downfall. They were plans A and B at first base after letting Pete Alonso walk in free agency. And whether you like FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference for wins above replacement, that duo has been worth a combined minus-2.5 WAR.

The Mets have been kind of hot over the past month, but it's far too little, far too late. That 12-game losing streak in April doomed them to a summer of misery before the season had really begun. While the Dodgers are breaking baseball with their spending, the Mets have been a reminder that money can't buy happiness.

Preseason Over/Under : 90.5 wins Current Trajectory : 92.0 wins Recent Returns : 25-15 since July 8

Most of the "pleasant surprise" pitchers in this article weren't expected to be regulars in the rotation in 2026. That's not the case with Schlittler, who started in New York's second game of the season and was supposed to be part of this rotation's big four (if it ever got healthy). Becoming the clear ace of this staff and the front runner for AL Cy Young, however, wasn't in the forecast.

At .264, at least Wells is hitting above the Mendoza Line thus far in August. That's the first month this season we've been able to say that, with things getting particularly grim in June when he went 2-for-33 at the dish. Among the 233 players who have made at least 300 plate appearances this season, only Washington's Nasim Nuñez has a lower OPS than Wells' mark of .578.

If you bet on the Yankees win total before the season began, have fun sweating this one out until quite possibly the final game of the year. Though it's a surprise that they are looking up at the Rays in the AL East standings, the Bronx Bombers are almost exactly on pace for 90.5 wins, even though Aaron Judge hasn't played in nearly three months.

Preseason Over/Under : 89.5 wins Current Trajectory : 89.5 wins Recent Returns : 17-7 since August 1

When Adolis García suffered a season-ending injury in mid-June, the Phillies went out and got Derek Hill from the White Sox. He had a .659 OPS in a part-time role, so the asking price wasn't exactly steep. But he turned his season around in Philadelphia, posting an .837 OPS in his first 32 games before fading a bit in recent weeks.

A career .297 hitter with more than 300 stolen bases and nearly 200 home runs, Turner had been worth at least 2.8 bWAR in each of the past 10 seasons. Just last season, he finished fifth in the NL MVP vote. But he has been a sub-replacement-level player this season, struggling both at the plate and in the field. Even so, he has batted either first or second in 128 of the Phillies' 134 games.

They've taken quite the circuitous path to their expected record, starting 9-19, winning 41 of their next 61 games, sputtering through a 7-14 stretch in July and catching fire again in August. Just like the Yankees, though, if you bet this win total in the preseason, have fun sweating for another month.

Heading into this season, Valdéz wasn't even top 10 in Pittsburgh farm system, per our Joel Reuter . He ended last season at Double-A Altoona with a modest .772 OPS in 51 games played. But after a 1.355 OPS in Fall League, a 1.029 OPS in spring training and an .888 OPS in Triple-A, he got his chance. And in 63 games played, he has 15 home runs and an .898 OPS. It's not difficult to argue that his rookie season has been a bigger success than Konnor Griffin's.

We Were Expecting More : DH Marcell Ozuna

Some sluggers like David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz continue to mash all the way to the age of 40. Others seem to spontaneously combust upon turning 35. Evidently, Ozuna is the latter type, as the Pirates gave him $12M for a .203 batting average and a .612 OPS. He slugged .552 between the 2023 and 2024 seasons, but that feels like ancient history now.

As it turns out, the preseason win totals had a crystal ball centered on the state of Pennsylvania, with the Pirates and Phillies the two teams almost exactly where they "should" be. Pittsburgh was holding strong in the wild card picture, though, until about a month ago when what had been one of the most potent offenses in the league suddenly lost its juice.

If you had given me 15, maybe even 20 guesses six months ago on who would lead the Padres in bWAR this season, Ty France wouldn't have been one of those guesses. And while he may ultimately finish behind at least Fernando Tatis Jr. in that race, he is presently in the lead at a 3.6 bWAR with a .862 OPS. Mighty unexpected from a guy who had given four separate teams a sub-.700 OPS over the previous two seasons.

We Were Expecting More : 3B Manny Machado

Without a doubt, Machado has turned things around over the past two-plus months, posting an .807 OPS in his last 68 games. Had he done that all season long, there never would have been a single complaint here. But he had a .586 OPS in his first 63 games and was the primary fall guy as everyone tried to comprehend how the Padres went from a 29-18 NL West leader to a sub-.500 team with a hapless offense.

The Padres have a knack for figuring things out in late July. They went from a 50-50 start to a 43-19 finish two years ago, then went 35-23 over the final two months of last season. They are doing it again this year: after falling three games below .500 on July 23, they have surged into a wild-card position and own baseball's best record since then. They also could get Joe Musgrove and/or Nick Pivetta back at some point.

Preseason Over/Under : 80.5 wins Current Trajectory : 65.8 wins Recent Returns : 7-17 since July 31

He's no longer on the team, but Arraez was one of the few redeeming qualities of this year's Giants squad. The batting average isn't the surprise, as he's on track to win his fourth batting crown in five years. Rather, after seven years as a clear negative on defense, there's a decent chance he'll win a Gold Glove for his work at second base this season.

We Were Expecting More : C Patrick Bailey

Might as well make both of these picks guys who are no longer on the team, right? Bailey never has been much of a hitter, but his value added behind the plate used to make up for it. However, no amount of elite pitch framing could make up for what was a .396 OPS when they traded him to Cleveland in early May.

After four years of stagnant mediocrity, at least the Giants finally found their way out of no-man's land. Unfortunately, they dug down instead of climbing up, presently with their fifth-worst winning percentage of MLB's World Series era. We'll see if they can avoid 100 losses.

Over the past three seasons, it looked like the No. 6 overall pick in the 2020 draft was never going to be anything more for the Mariners than a stopgap solution when one of the regular starting pitchers got hurt. In 162.2 innings of work, he had a 4.81 ERA, a 5.23 FIP and a 6.0 K/9. This year, however, he has a 3.37 ERA, a 3.82 FIP and an 8.4 K/9, becoming so reliable that the M's were willing to move Luis Castillo ahead of the trade deadline.

The Big Dumper has put on a bit of a show in the past week, including going yard three times in the series opener against the Phillies. Through his first 94 games played, though, he had a .569 OPS, operating at a 162-game pace of 22.4 home runs. Even the pessimists who expected Raleigh to come back to earth after last year's homer-palooza certainly didn't think he would regress this much.

For as disappointing as this season has been for the Mariners, the stage is still set for them to sprint into the postseason as AL West champs. Seventeen of their final 22 games come against either the A's, Angels or Rockies, and the other five are home games against the Astros and Rangers. With the Mariners just 2.5 games out of the AL West lead, failing to salvage the season could prompt significant organizational changes.

Preseason Over/Under : 69.5 wins Current Trajectory : 79.8 wins Recent Returns : 15-23 since July 8

If you had given up hope on Walker amounting to anything, you certainly weren't alone. The former top prospect had gone from good as a rookie to bad to worse over the previous two seasons, managing just 11 home runs and a .595 OPS in 162 games played. Had the Cardinals not entered the year still in rebuilding mode, they might have just thrown in the towel. But the 2026 All-Star has rewarded them for their patience with 27 home runs, 18 stolen bases and an .846 OPS.

We Were Expecting More : CF Victor Scott II

Scott never was going to be a clean-up hitter, but he was at least a serviceable player last season with a .305 on-base percentage, 34 stolen bases and outstanding range in center field. He almost led the Cardinals in wins above replacement . This year, none of those things were true, and he was sent back to Triple-A in early June with a sub-.200 batting average.

Like both the Pirates and the Nationals, the Cardinals have faded out of the NL's postseason conversation over the past 4-6 weeks. That they were ever a factor at all, though, after trading away Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan and Nolan Arenado is mighty impressive.

Preseason Over/Under : 76.5 wins Current Trajectory : 96.2 wins Recent Returns : 5-8 since August 14

Pleasant Surprise : LHP Shane McClanahan

When McClanahan took the mound for Tampa Bay's fifth game of the regular season, it had been 972 days since he last pitched in the majors. He was excellent for his first three seasons in the league, but no one knew what to expect from him this year. Aside from a mildly decreased whiff rate, though, he has picked up right where he left off, giving the Rays a 3.10 ERA and 3.33 FIP—on par with his prior career marks of 3.02 and 3.36, respectively.

We Were Expecting More : IF Carson Williams

From 2023-25, Williams played in 341 minor league games, racking up 66 home runs and 75 stolen bases with an OPS slightly north of .800. And after several years as a consensus top 50 prospect, this was supposed to be the year he broke through in the majors, entering the season as Tampa Bay's starting shortstop. Instead, he is back at Triple-A for the third time in 2026, saddled with a .370 OPS in his 16 games played in the majors

Along with the White Sox, the Rays are one of just two teams that have already surpassed their preseason win total. They've been in a bit of a funk over the past two weeks, but they seem to respond with a hot stretch every time we start to question whether they have the staying power to win the AL East.

Preseason Over/Under : 83.5 wins Current Trajectory : 79.8 wins Recent Returns : 11-16 since July 29

With a tip o' the cap to Ezequiel Durán for becoming Texas' MVP as the utility man extraordinaire, Latz becoming an All-Star closer has been quite the stunning development. He didn't record his first save until the Rangers' 27th game, but he has been lights out since then with 26 saves, a 3-0 record and a 1.79 ERA. Not too shabby for a guy whose only save prior to this season was of the "pitched the final three innings of a blowout" variety.

We Were Expecting More : UTIL Josh Smith

Between 2024 and 2025, Smith was Texas' rock. Despite not having a position to call his own, he batted .254 and led the team with 293 games played. But he fell all the way out of their good graces this year, getting sent down to Triple-A on multiple occasions before getting traded to Toronto for Adam Macko. (Who has also been at Triple-A since then.)

Since the end of May, Texas has been perpetually between three games above .500 and four games below .500, almost stuck in neutral while benefiting from the Astros and Mariners refusing to play any better. The Rangers almost feel destined to finish the season at 81-81. Will that be enough to win this division?

Preseason Over/Under : 88.5 wins Current Trajectory : 78.6 wins Recent Returns : 11-7 since August 7

When Varland first broke into the majors in 2022, he was a starting pitcher, not transitioning fully to the bullpen until last season. He entered 2026 with zero career saves and a 4.66 ERA. But he has become almost indisputably the best closer in the American League, boasting a 1.20 ERA while going 30-for-31 in save opportunities.

We Were Expecting More : 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

In totality, Toronto's offense has been a colossal disappointment, entering play on Wednesday dead last in the majors in runs scored. That isn't entirely Guerrero's fault, but he really has not helped matters with seven home runs and a .687 OPS. It's incomprehensible that he has yet to homer at home this season.

It's probably generous to give Toronto anything other than a failing grade, as they clearly have been a $365M failure up to this point. They aren't quite as far off in their win total trajectory as some teams, though, and there's still hope that they can capitalize on the one-two punch of a favorable remaining schedule and a wide-open race for the AL's final wild card spot.

Griffin had spent the past three seasons in Japan and entered the current campaign with just eight innings pitched in his MLB career. The Nationals brought him in on a one-year, $5.5M deal, which is roughly what the Rockies paid each of Tomoyuki Sugano and Jose Quintana for their services. Nevertheless, he was an All-Star, making 22 starts with a 3.06 ERA before they traded him to Cleveland.

We Were Expecting More : 3B Brady House and OF Dylan Crews

House was Washington's No. 11 overall pick in 2021, while Crews went No. 2 overall in 2023. Although many of Washington's position players have exceeded expectations, those former top prospects have not followed suit. Both have been barely replacement-level players, each with a sub-.300 on-base percentage. Perhaps next year will bring a turnaround.

They've gone belly up over the past month, losing eight of their last nine series while free-falling out of the wild-card picture. Still, though, it's only a question of when they're going to cash this over, as they were drastically better than expected through the first 108 games of virtually unstoppable offense.