Early 2026-27 MLB Offseason Predictions on Free Agency, Trades and More

The 2026 MLB season is over for all but four teams, which is how you know the offseason is getting closer every day. And it could be a big one.

Yes, we all know there's likely a lockout coming at the start of December. And no, this year's class of free agents is not particularly strong. Yet one can still imagine a whole bunch of big moves going down, so what's the harm in making predictions?

We have come to present 10 for the 2026-27 offseason. They touch on six potential free agents and four potential trade targets. Each is a big swing in its own way.

Let's begin in San Diego, with a move that won't be happening.

The San Diego Padres Won't Let Michael King Reach Free Agency

Michael King can opt out of the last two years of his three-year, $75 million contract, and he'd be a fool not to after the year he just had.

The 3.21 ERA and 185.0 innings he posted for his 32 starts in the regular season? Pretty good. The one run he allowed in 14.0 innings during the Padres' playoff run? Even better.

Yet despite his ties to the East Coast, King made no bones about his desire to carry on with the Padres: "San Diego's been—been incredible for me, and it's all the way across the country from home. But now I feel like I have a—a second home on the West Coast, so it's been awesome. And yeah, I hope to—hope to continue."

That reads like an invitation to the Padres to make an offer, and they darn well should. Their rotation simply can't afford to lose King. And if Kwanza Jones and José E. Feliciano want to throw one of MLB's most loyal fanbases a bone in their first winter as the team's owners, they'd do well to pony up for King.

We'll go out on a limb and guess that they won't even let the 31-year-old righty reach the open market, a la the Kansas City Royals with Michael Wacha two years ago . The final contract should be in the nine-figure range.

The Philadelphia Phillies Will Trade for Jarren Duran

Shifting now to the trade market, there might not be a more obvious offseason trade candidate than Jarren Duran.

He's just not the central figure in Boston that he was in 2024, when he was the All-Star Game MVP en route to a 9.0-rWAR season. His production especially cratered this year, in which even 21 home runs could not save him from an output of 0.4 rWAR.

The 30-year-old is also a spare part for the Red Sox, as he's one of three left-handed-hitting outfielders for two spots on either side of Ceddanne Rafaela. He'd fit better on the Phillies, who got -0.2 rWAR from left field this season.

It would also be a reunion of sorts. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was still running the Red Sox when they drafted Duran in 2018. Despite his recent slide, he's still proven to be one of the top players from that year's draft class.

As for what a deal could look like, how does everyone like the sound of this challenge trade? Duran for Orion Kerkering.

The Chicago Cubs Will Trade for George Kirby

It's a rare thing, to have enough starting pitching to be able to even think about trading away an All-Star starter.

That is precisely the position the Mariners are in, and one can imagine them trading Logan Gilbert, George Kirby or Bryan Woo if the price was right. We're zeroing in on Kirby just because it's easiest to imagine him going somewhere.

He's in a sweet spot: He's lost some stock as an ace but remains appealing on account of his excellent stuff, strong command and combination of youth (28) and controllability (through 2028). If the Mariners can turn him into a controllable bat, they should.

Given their previous interest in Kirby, this is where the Cubs could come in. They stand to lose basically an entire rotation's worth of starters to free agency, including Kevin Gausman, Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga. They should look to re-sign some guys, but bringing in fresh blood via trade is likewise a good idea.

A Kirby-for-Matt Shaw trade works on paper, even if it would require the Cubs to backfill Shaw's spot. To that end, re-signing Ian Happ and/or Seiya Suzuki would do the trick.

The Tampa Bay Rays Will Trade for Hunter Goodman

We'll see how the Rays do in the ALCS against the Cleveland Guardians, but dare we say they should be plotting a big offseason either way?

There is, after all, a bit of a power vacuum in the AL East. The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles are on the fritz. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox both figure to be active this winter, yet neither club looms as large over the division as they did in the 2000s and 2010s.

Meanwhile, the Rays are hoping to have their new stadium ready for the 2029 season. The thing to do in the meantime is build the hype, and then deliver a team that represents a newer, better era of Rays baseball.

A trade for Hunter Goodman would do the trick. He had more home runs this year (41) than the Rays have gotten from the catching position across the last three years (36). Conveniently, the 27-year-old is controlled through 2029.

The Rays were linked to Goodman at the trade deadline, and they're one of relatively few teams with enough prospect depth to overwhelm the Colorado Rockies. Any offer headlined by Grady Emerson or Theo Gillen could get it done.

The Atlanta Braves Will Trade for Gunnar Henderson

We did say big swings, right? And truth be told, there may not be a better time than this winter for the Baltimore Orioles to trade Gunnar Henderson.

Similar to Jarren Duran and George Kirby, he's another guy whose stock has gone in the wrong direction in recent years. His 65 homers and 14.9 rWAR made him a superstar in 2023 and 2024. Across 2025 and 2026, those totals fell to 41 homers and 8.6 rWAR.

The free-agent market is so barren, however, that other teams might just be willing to pay the Orioles' price for Henderson rather than the price he's actually worth. He'd indeed be a worthwhile project, given that he's still just 25 years old and controlled through 2028.

If the Braves don't already have Henderson on their radar, they should. Their shortstop position has been unsettled for years, and it stands to be wide-open once Ha-Seong Kim and Mauricio Dubón file for free agency.

According to Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe , the Braves weren't willing to move Didier Fuentes in a rental trade for Tarik Skubal. Would they reconsider if it meant getting Henderson for at least two years?

The Los Angeles Angels Will Sign Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Following their sweep at the hands of the Rays in the ALDS, Jazz Chisholm Jr. came right out and said it : "This is where I want to be. I love it as a Yankee."

Unlike with Michael King and the Padres, however, this doesn't feel like a situation where the love will be mutual. The Yankees have seemed ready to move on from Chisholm for months, and they have two potential replacements at second base in Anthony Volpe and Luis García Jr.

Chisholm could be in for a multi-year deal. Yet after falling well short of his 50-50 goal and posting just 1.7 rWAR this year, the 28-year-old might be better off pursuing a one-year contract and reentering the market next winter.

The Angels are just one of many teams that would have to be interested in such a deal. They are in need of help at the keystone, specifically, and upside on offense, generally. Chisholm can provide both, and some energy to boot.

Depending on when the sale is finalized, signing Chisholm would also be a relatively low-risk way for Stan Kroenke to ingratiate himself with his new fanbase. Even if a one-year deal for Chisholm is valued at $20-plus million, he can afford it.

The Toronto Blue Jays Will Sign Seiya Suzuki

Let's cut right to the chase, because Mitch Bannon of The Athletic didn't leave much doubt about where the Blue Jays stand on Seiya Suzuki:

"This offseason, said a league source who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss offseason plans, the Jays are expected to pursue Chicago Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki."

The Blue Jays need a right fielder. More than that, they just plain need reliable hitters after finishing last in MLB in scoring this year. Suzuki more than makes the grade, as his last four seasons have seen him average a 131 OPS+ and 25 home runs.

Suzuki might be able to top the $85 million guarantee that landed him with the Chicago Cubs back in 2022. Too much for other teams, perhaps. It shouldn't be for these Blue Jays, who have been plenty willing to spend in recent offseasons.

The New York Yankees Will Sign Teruaki Sato

Should the Yankees pivot away from their power-based offense and toward something more holistic? Probably.

But will they actually do it? One thinks not, and not just because "Bronx Bombers" is their whole brand. When you have a home park that caters to power as much as Yankee Stadium, you don't waste that advantage. Least of all when you can afford power like the Yankees can.

Given this and their need to upgrade at least one corner of the infield, it came as no surprise when Jon Heyman of the New York Post tabbed the Yankees as a fit for Teruaki Sato in August.

The 27-year-old's profile bears a resemblance to that of Munetaka Murakami. There's a lot of swing-and-miss, and he's probably more of a first baseman than a third baseman. But he's also hit 79 home runs across the last two seasons in Japan. That's as a left-handed hitter, making him a classic candidate to take aim at Yankee Stadium's short porch.

Murakami didn't land a nine-figure deal last winter, and we all saw how that worked out for everyone who sold him short as an impact player. Sato may benefit from a market correction, especially if the Yankees get involved.

The Boston Red Sox Will Sign Randy Arozarena

If anything is a sure bet for the coming offseason, it's that Randy Arozarena will end up back on the East Coast.

It's where he became a star with the Rays, and Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times claims Arozarena was "crushed" when he got traded to the Pacific Northwest in 2024. Lucky for him, he's headed to free agency at a moment when several East Coast teams need a potent right-handed bat.

The Red Sox are one of them, and they indeed need more power in general. They have ranked in the bottom half of the AL in home runs in four of the last five seasons. Of the three players who topped 20 homers for them this year, one (Jarren Duran) is a candidate to move this winter.

True, it's harder to count on the Red Sox to spend money in free agency than it used to be. Yet the capacity to spend is still there, and one would hope the willingness is too after back-to-back playoff humiliations at the hands of the Yankees.

To this point in his career, Arozarena has been a steady 20-20 threat. If the Red Sox spend $100-plus million to put him in Fenway Park, his potential in the home run column should inch closer to 30.

The New York Mets Will Sign Tarik Skubal

The Mets have a good shot at Tarik Skubal simply by virtue of being one of very few teams that can afford him.

When ESPN's Kiley McDaniel solicited projections for the two-time Cy Young Award winner's next contract, the average came out to eight years, $355 million. It would be the fourth-largest contract in the history of MLB free agency, and the largest for a full-time pitcher.

At that rate, the Skubal sweepstakes could come down to which of the Mets, Dodgers or Yankees would be most willing to take the risk. And of those three clubs, the Mets may have the clearest need for a No. 1 starter this winter.

Whether David Stearns would want to shell out so much money for Skubal is a fair question, but what he wants might not matter if Steve Cohen decides to step in. He notably did so to land Juan Soto on a 15-year, $765 million deal.

Soto's agent? Scott Boras. Skubal's agent? Also Boras. Suffice it to say he'll know who to call if he smells green in Queens.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference , FanGraphs and Baseball Savant .