Ranking Padres SP Michael King, Casey Mize's Top Landing Spots Ahead of MLB Free Agency

Though the wounds of San Diego's NLDS exit from the postseason are still painfully fresh, the Padres need to quickly turn their focus to what will be a particularly eventful offseason for them.

They have nine unrestricted free agents, three players with mutual options (who might as well be unrestricted free agents), plus three more with player options. That could mean as many as 15 holes to fill, and in a winter that could also be complicated by a lockout.

Two of their biggest soon-to-be free agents are starting pitchers Michael King and Casey Mize. The latter is one of the nine unrestricted FAs, while the former is very likely to exercise an opt-out clause to hit the open market for a second consecutive year.

Will either (or both?) of those righties re-sign with the Padres, or where do they best fit for 2027 and beyond?

Ahead, we've put together a ranking of what we believe to be the best landing spots for each, starting with Mize before diving deeper into the teams most likely to pay...a King's ransom.

Though Michael King and Casey Mize are both right-handed starting pitchers with an injury history who ended the year with the San Diego Padres, the similarities arguably end there.

King has been, when healthy, one of the better pitchers of the past half-decade.

If that feels like hyperbole, please note that he is one of just eight pitchers with at least 450 innings pitched and an ERA of 3.00 or better since the beginning of 2022. The others on that list are Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Max Fried, Zack Wheeler and the patron saint of "really good when healthy" Drew Rasmussen.

King also has a 1.86 ERA in seven career postseason appearances, including that gutsy two-inning save in Game 3 against Milwaukee.

Despite missing half of last season, he signed a three-year, $75M contract this past December, with player options after each of the first two seasons. It is a near certainty that he will opt out, though, after he spent the past six months almost single-handedly carrying San Diego's starting rotation, never missing a start.

He turns 32 in May, so he probably won't quite fetch a Fried-sized contract—eight years, $218M; signed one month before his 31st birthday and two days after the Yankees lost Juan Soto to the Mets. But King should have no problem whatsoever fetching nine figures on a five-year deal.

And then there's Mize, who was taken No. 1 overall in the 2018 draft and has had flashes/stretches of brilliance, but simply has not lived up to the hype that comes with that distinction.

Mize had a 2.70 ERA in 16 starts with the Tigers this season, but gave the Padres a disastrous 7.46 ERA after the trade deadline before landing on the IL for the third time this season—a near-perfect encapsulation of a career in which he has yet to log enough innings for an ERA title and seems to have a six-week-long rough patch in each season.

In other words, he's a wild card, much like Tyler Mahle has been both previous times he hit free agency, ending up with short-term contracts with an AAV of around $10M.

Had Mize's brief time with San Diego gone better, he probably could have commanded much more than that on the open market. As is, $10M for one year or $20M for two years feels about right, which means just about any team could acquire him.

Casey Mize Landing Spot No. 3: Detroit Tigers

Projected 2027 Starting Rotation Options : Framber Valdez, Troy Melton, Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe, Drew Anderson, River Ryan?, Reese Olson??

Even though the San Diego Padres head into the offseason in desperate need of starting pitching, it's hard to imagine they'll have any interest in re-upping with Mize. He had an 8.28 ERA and no quality starts over his final seven appearances. At this point, they're just hoping they don't also live to regret parting with 2024 first-round pick Kash Mayfield to acquire Mize.

A different reunion could be in the cards for Mize, though, as Detroit also clearly needs starting pitching, moving on without what had been the Nos. 1, 3, 4 and 5 starters in its Opening Day rotation.

What we don't know is whether Mize would have any interest in returning to Motown after they never even approached him about a contract extension before trading him away, per Bob Nightengale . If there's lingering animosity about the way things ended, go ahead and scratch Detroit from the list of candidates.

Sometimes, though, you just want to go where everybody knows your name. And Mize did have a solid run over the past two seasons at Comerica Park, making 22 starts with a 3.18 ERA.

Casey Mize Landing Spot No. 2: Atlanta Braves

Projected 2027 Starting Rotation Options : Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, JR Ritchie, AJ Smith-Shawver, Spencer Schwellenbach

Mize is from Springville, Alabama. He went to college at Auburn. He presently lives in Nashville.

For all three of those locations, the nearest MLB stadium is Truist Park in Atlanta.

Mize grew up as a big fan of Derek Jeter and the Yankees, so pitching for the Braves wouldn't exactly fulfill a lifelong dream of his. (Before you ask, the Yankees do not figure to be adding any starting pitchers this winter.) However, getting to make home starts within a reasonable drive of his various homes could be a nice selling point in free agency.

And the Braves sure could use another pitcher for their deep stable of once-promising arms that can never seem to stay healthy.

While Schwellenbach missed all of 2026 and Strider and Smith-Shawver both made just eight appearances, Elder (4.62), Holmes (4.76) and Ritchie (5.54) each posted FIPs that left much to be desired.

Sale had a Cy Young-caliber year, but he turns 38 in March and was already getting at least five days' rest after nearly every start this season.

The Braves do already have 12 players signed for a combined sum of $190M in 2027, though, and also have to figure out what to do about the impending departures of Raisel Iglesias and Mauricio Dubón. That likely means targeting someone like Mize as opposed to making a serious push for a Tarik Skubal or Michael King type of contract.

Predicting the Outcome for Each Team's Top Free Agent 🔮

Casey Mize Landing Spot No. 1: San Francisco Giants

Projected 2027 Starting Rotation Options : Logan Webb, Landen Roupp, Adrian Houser, Matt Wilkinson, Anthony Molina

Eight pitchers made at least eight starts for the Giants in 2026.

From that bunch, Robbie Ray and Tyler Mahle were traded away in August, and Trevor McDonald, Carson Whisenhunt and Blade Tidwell are most likely going to miss all of 2027 following recent Tommy John surgeries.

Adrian Houser also missed the final month of the regular season with an elbow injury and had already lost his starting job anyway, posting a 5.73 ERA in his first 14 appearances.

So, San Francisco's rotation outlook is Logan Webb, Landen Roupp and a bay full of question marks.

With how much money the Giants have tied up in Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Jung Hoo Lee, Webb and Houser, though, they kind of have to at least try to cobble together a competent rotation.

And Mize would fit right into their free agency wheelhouse: Spending $10M-$15M per year on short-term deals with guys who might be No. 3 starters in an ideal world.

They did make that one late-in-the-offseason splash for Blake Snell before the 2024 campaign, and took a similar "one year plus a player option" gamble on the oft-injured Carlos Rodón prior to 2022. But every other free agent starting pitcher they've signed in the past half-decade—Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Jordan Hicks, Justin Verlander, Mahle and Houser—has fit that "12-ish million per year for a maybe middle-of-the-rotation guy" description.

Granted, it hasn't been working for them, last posting a winning record in 2021. It might be time to abandon that approach to roster building. But Mize is exactly the type of player they usually target.

Honorable Mentions for Michael King Landing Spots

Arizona Diamondbacks : Over the past three offseasons, Arizona has signed five starting pitchers to contracts with an AAV of at least $20M. They do still have Corbin Burnes, Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez on the payroll, but they might be a little extra desperate this winter after landing on the wrong end of yet another photo finish on the final day of the regular season.

Chicago White Sox : 2026 was the surprise breakthrough, but now is the time to double down on this newfound window of relevance. For now, the White Sox have five known salary figures for 2027, totaling less than $70M. Add in their four arbitration-eligible players and we're maybe talking $85M—for a club that had a payroll north of $200M in 2022 and 2023. They're going to do something big, and it ought to be in the starting rotation.

Houston Astros : Unless they trade away one of Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes or Jeremy Peña and/or unless Tatsuya Imai makes the surprising decision to decline his $18M player option, Houston probably doesn't have room in the 2027 budget to make a King-sized signing. However, with a World Series window that may well slam shut next winter, maybe they embrace a heftier payroll than usual.

Los Angeles Angels : For two decades (2004-23), the Angels always ranked top nine in Opening Day payroll. But in Arte Moreno's final few years in charge, they've scaled back considerably on free agent spending. Maybe in year No. 1 with a new owner, they go grab King to pair with Reid Detmers and Walbert Ureña. It might at least make this team interesting for a change.

Los Angeles Dodgers : Here's your obligatory reminder that the Dodgers must always be considered a candidate to sign one of the better free agents available. But they do still have a Big Three of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, possibly Shohei Ohtani returning to the mound and a deep stable of options for the Nos. 5 and 6 spots in the rotation, including Justin Wrobleski, Roki Sasaki and Emmet Sheehan. We'll see if that stops them, though.

St. Louis Cardinals : Only once in franchise history have the Cardinals signed a free agent to a contract with an AAV north of $17.5M, but that was the three-year, $75M deal with Sonny Gray just a couple winters ago. If they're willing to go back to that well, adding an ace to what was a 2026 rotation full of No. 3-4 starters could be a game-changer. And with virtually nothing presently on their 2027 payroll , they certainly have the room in the budget to do it.

Toronto Blue Jays : Of the six pitchers who made more than 10 starts for the Blue Jays in 2026, only Dylan Cease and Trey Yesavage are expected back in 2027. They do have José Soriano, though. Cody Ponce should be back after tearing his ACL in his season debut. Former top prospect Ricky Tiedemann might finally factor into the mix, too. Throw in Spencer Miles as an option and this rotation might be good/deep enough that they instead focus their offseason spending on a hitter like Randy Arozarena.

Michael King Landing Spot No. 5: Baltimore Orioles

Projected 2027 Starting Rotation Options : Shane Baz, Brandon Young, Kyle Bradish, Cade Povich, Trey Gibson

Notably, the Orioles have their own marquee arm hitting free agency in the form of Trevor Rogers. If they want to sign a guy who could start on Opening Day, they are quite familiar with one who already did so for them this season.

But they need to do something significant about this starting rotation, lest they sputter to yet another sub-.500 season with Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson on the roster.

Shane Baz is a fine pitcher, but he's not the ace of a World Series contender.

Likewise, Brandon Young had a respectable 2026 campaign, but he's not a Game 2-caliber starter in the postseason.

And who knows what Baltimore will get from Kyle Bradish in 2027 as he recovers from both a sports hernia and a tough season on the mound?

The good news is they've got some money to spend.

If, as expected, neither Zach Eflin's $25M mutual option nor Luis Robert Jr.'s $20M club option is exercised, both salaries will come off the books. Chris Bassitt's $18.5M salary will also no longer be part of the equation.

Even accounting for projected arbitration salaries, they're currently looking at a payroll at least $30M below their Opening Day payroll in each of the past two seasons—which is roughly what we expect Michael King's AAV to be.

Michael King Landing Spot No. 4: New York Mets

Projected 2027 Starting Rotation Options : Nolan McLean, Sean Manaea, Christian Scott, Zac Thornton, Tylor Megill, Jonah Tong, Jonathan Santucci

In recent years, the New York Mets have been none too shy about investing heavily in position players.

But since spending all that money on Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander only to go 75-87 in the one season they were together on the roster, they've shied away from shelling out the big bucks for starting pitchers. (The one exception was re-signing Sean Manaea to a three-year, $75M contract after his career-best run through 2024, and that decision hasn't aged well at all.)

Will they continue to operate that way and pay Juan Soto more than they pay their entire starting rotation in 2027? Or do they make a big move for a guy like Michael King to bolster this young rotation?

To some extent, Bo Bichette's $84M opt-out decision has to matter.

If he leaves, the Mets could roll with their top prospect, Jefferson Rojas, at the hot corner in 2027 and reallocate those "savings" to an ace-caliber free agent—maybe even Tarik Skubal.

If Bichette stays in Queens, though, he'll be one of their eight players with a combined luxury tax salary of more than $223M. And even with Steve Cohen's checkbook, they'd have to think about whether it's worth adding a pitcher with a roughly $30M AAV to the equation.

Michael King Landing Spot No. 3: Washington Nationals

Projected 2027 Starting Rotation Options : Cade Cavalli, Connelly Early, Andrew Alvarez, Josiah Gray, DJ Herz, Jake Irvin, Jackson Kent

Only once in franchise history have the Washington Nationals / Montreal Expos scored more runs than they did this year, doing so in 2019 en route to their only World Series title.

And now the front office owes it to those hitters to go out and do something about what has been one of the worst pitching staffs in the majors in the 2020s.

They certainly have the room in the budget to sign a guy like King, if not several Kings.

Cade Cavalli will be getting $4M in the first year of his recently signed extension. Keibert Ruiz will make $5M. CJ Abrams' salary will probably jump from $4.2M to a bit north of $10M in arbitration. But aside from the deferred money that they are somehow still paying both Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer, that's about it.

And we know the Lerners have money in the banana stand. Washington's year-end tax payroll was slightly north of $200M each year from 2017-19. They could/should be gearing up to take a page from the Detroit Tigers' playbook of recently reopening the checkbook in a big way after six to seven years of cutting back on spending amid a rebuild.

Maybe they don't go whole hog for Tarik Skubal, as they are literally still paying the price for the last time they gave an ace more than $200M. But put King atop this rotation alongside Cavalli—while maybe replacing the entire bullpen—and the Nats would be back in business for the first time since right before the pandemic.

Michael King Landing Spot No. 2: Chicago Cubs

Projected 2027 Starting Rotation Options : Justin Steele, Edward Cabrera, Ben Brown, Javier Assad, Colin Rea, Cade Horton (should return from Tommy John around the All-Star Break)

The Cubs played 19 games over the final three weeks of the regular season. The starting pitchers for those games were Shota Imanaga (four), Matthew Boyd (four), David Peterson (four), Clay Holmes (four) and Kevin Gausman (three).

Imanaga, Peterson and Gausman are unrestricted free agents, Boyd has a mutual option for 2027 that is unlikely to be exercised, and Holmes will almost certainly decline his $12M player option for next season.

Welcome to "Extreme Makeover: Cubs Rotation."

Given how much they are losing, though, their 2027 outlook...isn't actually that bad?

Steele's rehab from elbow surgery went miserably this year, but they hope he'll be back at full strength for Opening Day. They're certainly also hoping that Cabrera looks more like he did in 2025 with the Marlins than he did this season. And heading into next season, there will be much worse Nos. 4-5 tandems than Assad and Rea.

But there's no way they're going to just move on from an entire starting rotation without at least trying to make a big splash, right?

Boyd and Imanaga made a combined $37M in 2026. Fellow free agents Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki combined for another $36M. And those are merely the big-ticket items for a team that has well north of $100M coming off the books this winter.

Curiously enough, Michael King has only made one appearance at Wrigley Field in his career, that coming in Game 3 of last year's wild card series, when he consecutively struck out Pete Crow-Armstrong, Dansby Swanson and Matt Shaw in his lone inning of work. But he could be a fixture within the friendly confines over the next few years.

Michael King Landing Spot No. 1: San Diego Padres

Projected 2027 Starting Rotation Options : Nick Pivetta, Randy Vásquez, Joe Musgrove?, Matt Waldron??, Yu Darvish???

As mentioned earlier, the Padres have a long list of free agents, including up to 11 pitchers .

Some good news is that Nick Pivetta's two-year, $32M player option was converted to a $14M club option because of how long he was on the IL this year. It's a near-certainty they'll bring him back, thanks to a lack of other comforting options.

Darvish missed all of 2026 ( and almost retired ) after a UCL internal brace surgery, but he might come back next year at 40 years old. Musgrove has missed the past two regular seasons after Tommy John surgery, but the Padres need him back on the mound in 2027. Waldron's knuckleball hasn't been fooling anyone in the majors with a 5.16 ERA thus far in his career.

And yet, those are three of the leaders in the clubhouse for spots in the 2027 rotation, even if Pivetta does stick around.

Long story short, there will definitely be a desire to re-up with King if and when he officially opts out of the two seasons left on his contract.

Considering he has a 2.88 ERA in 39 regular season starts at Petco Park over the past three years, one would assume he's at least open to the idea, too.

For what it's worth, this past winter, Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga and Ha-Seong Kim each either declined player options or exercised an opt-out clause before re-signing with the same team. Same goes for Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea and Michael Wacha the previous offseason.

In other words, it's hardly unheard of, and the Padres feel like the early favorite to retain King's services.