New 2026 MLB Playoff Race Predictions Entering Final Week of Regular Season

Only seven days remain until Major League Baseball's 2026 postseason bracket is set in stone.

But there is so much that still hangs in the balance.

Six teams have already punched their ticket, but not a single seed has been locked in quite yet.

While we have a reasonably good idea what the National League half of the picture is going to look like, the American League is more of a five-car pileup with three spots up for grabs—plus a non-zero chance that the current No. 1 and No. 4 seeds switch places.

Let's go division by division with one final round of predictions at how these regular season standings will shake out.

We'll also finish with predictions of how the postseason will go. However, a more "official" October prognostication will come next week, after all this dust settles.

Who Holds the Edge in Potential Tiebreakers?

Before we sink our teeth into the predictions, let's talk tiebreakers.

The three NL divisions have already been clinched, but nothing is finalized yet in the AL. Here's how those would shake out if they end in ties:

AL East : Tampa Bay leads New York 6-3, but with four H2H games remaining, which NYY needs to sweep to have any hope of catching TBR. (AL East winner will be the AL's No. 1 seed.)

AL Central : Chicago went 7-6 vs. Cleveland

Los Angeles would lose any tiebreaker with Atlanta or Milwaukee.

Atlanta and Milwaukee split their head-to-head series 3-3 and are currently both 32-17 against their own division. But in order for there to be a tie, Atlanta would have to finish with a better NL East record than Milwaukee's NL Central record and would win the tiebreaker.

Chicago wins any tiebreaker with Philadelphia, San Diego or Arizona.

Philadelphia swept San Diego 6-0, but would lose a tiebreaker with the Diamondbacks due to Arizona's superior record within its own division.

San Diego and Arizona are presently tied 5-5 with three games to play. (And Arizona pretty much has to sweep that series to have any hope of making it.)

Houston would win tiebreakers with Chicago or Cleveland; would lose tiebreaker with Baltimore. Houston and Toronto each won three head-to-head games and that tiebreaker is still to be determined. Best record within own division is the second tiebreaker. If that still doesn't settle it, best record within the American League should. Both are still up in the air, though.

Texas would win tiebreakers with Baltimore, Cleveland or Toronto; would lose tiebreaker with Chicago.

Toronto would win tiebreaker with Cleveland; would lose tiebreaker with Chicago. Toronto currently leads Baltimore 6-4 with three H2H games remaining.

Baltimore would win tiebreaker with Chicago; would lose tiebreaker with Cleveland.

If chaos reigns supreme and all six teams finish at 81-81, Houston would be the No. 2 seed, Chicago would be the No. 3 seed and Texas would be the No. 6 seed, as it holds all the tiebreakers over Baltimore, Cleveland and Toronto.

Tampa Bay Rays (95-60, current No. 1 seed, clinched playoff spot)

New York Yankees (89-66, 6 GB, current No. 4 seed, clinched playoff spot)

Boston Red Sox (84-72, current No. 5 seed, clinched playoff spot)

Toronto Blue Jays (77-79, 3 GB for No. 6 seed)

Baltimore Orioles (75-81, 5 GB for No. 6 seed)

Tampa Bay : 4 @ NYY, 3 @ PHI New York : 4 vs. TBR, 3 vs. BAL Boston : 3 vs. CLE, 3 vs. CHC Toronto : 3 @ BAL, 3 vs. CIN Baltimore : 3 vs. TOR, 3 @ NYY

Million Dollar Question : Where to even begin?

The biggest question by far is: Will Tampa Bay hang on to win this division?

The Rays have been in sole possession of first place in the AL East since June 28, which is also how long they have been penciled in as the AL's No. 1 seed.

But if they get swept in New York, this officially turns into a photo finish—with New York closing out the regular season at home against a probably-mathematically-eliminated-by-then Orioles team, while the Rays have to continue their road trip against a Phillies team that could still be battling for the NL's No. 4 seed.

Most likely, though, it'll be Tampa Bay as the No. 1 seed and New York as the No. 4 seed, with Boston all but certain to wind up with the No. 5 seed. And if that's the case, the big question becomes whether Toronto or Baltimore can turn this into a four-bid division.

They have a massive head-to-head series on tap in Baltimore, which most likely needs to be a sweep in either direction for one of them to have any real hope of chasing down the AL Central runner-up for the No. 6 seed.

But if it's Toronto getting that sweep before finishing up at home against Cincinnati, they just might end the year on a six-game winning streak to steal the last spot in the field.

Considering they've yet to even win five games in a row at any point in this season, though, rolling your eyes at that hypothetical scenario is probably the correct response.

Prediction : Tampa Bay Rays No. 1 seed, New York Yankees No. 4 seed, Boston Red Sox No. 5 seed

Cleveland Guardians (81-75, current No. 2 seed)

Chicago White Sox (80-76, 1 GB, current No. 6 seed)

Eliminated: Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins

Cleveland : 3 @ BOS, 3 @ KCR Chicago : 3 @ KCR, 3 vs. COL

Million Dollar Question : Does Chicago finish the fight?

At 8-13 dating back to August 30, the White Sox are more than just stumbling to the finish line. They've thrown it into reverse and shredded their tires on one of those parking garage death traps for cars, punctuated by Friday night's meltdown against Detroit in which an 8-2 lead turned into an 11-8 loss. (They did bounce back admirably with wins on Saturday and Sunday.)

Yet, they are more than just alive for a spot in the postseason.

If the regular season ended today, they would be the No. 6 seed. A first-round bye is still well within reach. And they close out their schedule against the last-place team in this division and the last-place team in all of baseball.

The vibes aren't exactly immaculate these days, but if you had told White Sox fans six months ago that they would be in this position with six games to go, they would've signed on for it in a heartbeat.

Already, it has been an incredible season for them, becoming the first team in MLB history to win at least 71 games (let alone 80) in a season immediately following three consecutive years with at least 100 losses.

That won't mean much of anything if they continue to wilt and wind up watching the postseason from the couch yet again.

We like their chances, though. Chicago has had the AL's highest-scoring offense this season, and neither Kansas City nor Colorado has exactly excelled on the mound. Might be some 10-8 types of scores this week, but they'll win four out of six to secure a spot in October; maybe even winning this division.

Prediction : Cleveland Guardians No. 2 seed, Chicago White Sox No. 6 seed

Texas Rangers (78-78, current No. 3 seed)

Houston Astros (77-79, 1 GB, 3 GB for No. 6 seed)

Eliminated: Athletics, Los Angeles Angels

Houston : 2 @ SEA, 4 @ ATH Texas : 3 vs. NYM, 3 @ MIN Seattle : 2 vs. HOU, 4 vs. LAA

Million Dollar Question : Can the Rangers finally get over the hump?

On multiple levels, it would be fitting if the Texas Rangers were the first team in MLB history to make the postseason with a .500 or worse record.

For starters, when the 1994 strike began, the Rangers were leading the AL West with a 52-62 record. We were all but guaranteed to have a losing record in the postseason, but it never arrived. Now, 32 years later, we are staring down the barrel of another work stoppage—with the AL West having already stopped working again.

But in the here and now, they have been the textbook definition of "mid" this season.

At no point have the Rangers been more than three games over .500, nor more than six games below .500. Their biggest division lead was two games, and their largest deficit was three games. They've been exactly .500 on 24 separate occasions .

Forever in the mix for the postseason; never a serious threat to actually win the World Series.

But what if they've saved their best for last?

Winning the World Series is all about getting hot at the right time, and who's to say that the Rangers can't do just that?

Whether they win the division or end up with the No. 6 seed, they wouldn't have to face the Rays, Yankees or Red Sox until the ALCS. And by then, momentum might be on their side.

Our pick is Houston, but whoever wins this division is going to have quite the "Nobody believes in us" motivation within the clubhouse.

Atlanta Braves (92-64, current No. 3 seed, clinched division)

Philadelphia Phillies (86-70, current No. 6 seed)

Eliminated: Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Washington Nationals

Million Dollar Question: Where does Philadelphia land in the final seeding?

There's still a chance the Phillies could miss the postseason altogether, but it's pretty unlikely.

Can they finish strong and secure the No. 4 seed, though, to guarantee at least two home games this postseason?

Those games against Milwaukee and Tampa Bay this week are already going to have a playoff feel to them, but the actual postseason games in Philadelphia over the past four years have been quite the spectacle.

There's another question within the question, though: Exactly how valuable is that No. 4 seed for them?

Because with the way their rotation is currently set up, Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler would pitch the final two games of the regular season. But one would have to assume that the only way they would actually do so is if they haven't yet clinched a postseason spot, because starting them on Saturday and Sunday would mean not having either available (on regular rest, at any rate) in the wild card round.

And good luck finding a Phillies fan who would rather have a home series with Aaron Nola, Andrew Painter and maybe Jesús Luzardo fresh off the IL when they could instead have Sánchez and Wheeler on eight days' rest on the road—especially considering those guys could maybe go 7-8 innings apiece and negate this team's biggest weakness: middle relievers.

Plus, ending up with the No. 6 seed means yet another chance to embarrass an NL East-winning Atlanta early in the postseason. Can't pass up that opportunity.

Prediction : Atlanta Braves No. 3 seed, Philadelphia Phillies No. 6 seed

Milwaukee Brewers (98-58, current No. 1 seed, clinched division)

Chicago Cubs (87-69, current No. 4 seed)

Eliminated: Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee : 3 @ PHI, 3 vs. STL Chicago : 3 vs. MIA, 3 @ BOS

Million Dollar Question : Can Milwaukee secure another No. 1 seed?

Honestly, the most intriguing finish in the NL Central might be 79-77 Pittsburgh's quest for just its fifth winning season since 1992. But the Pirates have already been eliminated and it'd be weird to fixate on that in a postseason predictions article.

Chicago's quest for the No. 4 seed is also highly intriguing, as it would mean home-field advantage in the wild card round, possibly against a Padres team that has gone 38-40 on the road this season, pitching much better at Petco Park (3.34 ERA) than it does everywhere else (4.57 ERA). Would be a repeat of last year's wild-card series, which Chicago won 2-1.

But home-field advantage throughout the postseason?

That's what the Brewers are seeking for a second consecutive year, presently two games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have won 14 out of 17—albeit exclusively against teams who have now been eliminated from postseason contention—and appear to be rounding into form at the perfect time once again.

Milwaukee has already set a franchise record for wins in a season, and is set up to have Jacob Misiorowski on the mound for Game 162.

If they need that one to lock up the No. 1 seed, awesome. He should be good to go 6+ innings, since they wouldn't need him again until the following Saturday.

Even if they don't need to win it, though, give The Miz a couple of innings (as was the case Sunday night against Baltimore) to stay on his regular rotation while the game serves as a victory lap of sorts—and hope against hope that the glorified bullpen session doesn't result in an injury that we would be talking about for years to come.

Prediction : Milwaukee Brewers No. 1 seed, Chicago Cubs No. 4 seed (buoyed by the fact that Boston should already be locked into the AL's No. 5 seed before that final series begins)

Los Angeles Dodgers (96-60, current No. 2 seed, clinched division)

San Diego Padres (87-69, current No. 5 seed)

Arizona Diamondbacks (82-74, 4.0 GB for No. 6 seed)

Eliminated: Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles : 3 vs. SDP, 3 @ SFG San Diego : 3 @ LAD, 3 vs. ARI Arizona : 3 @ COL, 3 @ SDP

Million Dollar Question : Can the Diamondbacks pull off the comeback?

Just one week ago, this wouldn't have been a comeback story. Arizona and San Diego were locked in a stalemate, as they had been for four months straight, seemingly destined to have that race decided in head-to-head fashion over the final weekend of the regular season.

But while the Padres have been the hottest team in baseball with wins in 13 of their last 14 games, the Diamondbacks have dropped six out of 10 and are now hanging by a thread.

However, if they sweep Colorado while San Diego gets swept in Los Angeles and/or Philadelphia gets swept by Milwaukee—all of which is entirely plausible—buckle up.

As things presently stand, Arizona's season series with both San Diego and Philadelphia are tied. But if they take two out of three (or all three) from the Padres, the Diamondbacks would own both of those tiebreakers—edging out the Phillies by virtue of a better record vs. NL West than the Phillies have vs. NL East. (If it ends in a three-way tie, San Diego would be the one missing the cut.)

It's improbable, if only because of the way they have been sputtering as of late. It's not impossible, though. And our official stance is that it would be fun if there's some last minute "Will they make the postseason?" drama that doesn't involve a bunch of .500 AL teams.

Prediction : Los Angeles Dodgers No. 2 seed, San Diego Padres No. 5 seed

With six of the 12 postseason spots and all 12 of the seeds still technically TBD, we'll save the deep dive into the various matchups until next week when at least the wild card round is actually set in stone. But given our projections for how things shake out over these final seven days, here's your latest October forecast.

No. 3 Atlanta Braves over No. 6 Philadelphia Phillies No. 5 San Diego Padres over No. 4 Chicago Cubs

No. 3 Houston Astros over No. 6 Chicago White Sox No. 4 New York Yankees over No. 5 Boston Red Sox

When in doubt in a best-of-three series, pick the bullpen you trust the most. And with Aroldis Chapman presently M.I.A. for the Red Sox with lat tightness, this might be the most lopsided quartet of bullpen matchups in a postseason round in MLB history.

Big capital H however, if Chapman is back and looking good during the final week of the regular season, if Garrett Crochet makes it back in a relief capacity and if Aaron Judge is unavailable for the wild card round, I'm almost certainly going to flip-flop on that Yankees-Red Sox series for the umpteenth time in the past month.

No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers over No. 5 San Diego Padres No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers over No. 3 Atlanta Braves

No. 1 Tampa Bay Rays over No. 4 New York Yankees No. 3 Houston Astros over No. 2 Cleveland Guardians

With all due respect to Atlanta and San Diego, the Milwaukee-Los Angeles NLCS rematch has been growing increasingly unavoidable over the past month. Moreover, Atlanta hasn't used Chris Sale on fewer than five days' rest since early April, and after presumably going in Game 1 of the wild card round, he'd be on four days' rest for Game 2 and again for Game 5. We'll see how that goes.

On the AL side of things, goodness only knows what is going to happen in the 2/3/6 portion of the bracket. I won't even pretend to be surprised if that ALCS spot goes to a team not currently projected to make the postseason. But that Tampa Bay-New York series could be epic. Rays in 5, with the home team winning all five games.

No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers over No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers No. 1 Tampa Bay Rays over No. 3 Houston Astros

No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers over No. 1 Tampa Bay Rays

It brings me no joy to project the three-peat, especially with it coming consecutively at the expense of the low-budget Brewers and lower-budget Rays.

But isn't this the inevitable conclusion to a season that has had a salary cap-fueled lockout simmering on the back burner on a daily basis for months?

Now that Kyle Tucker and his $60M AAV are finally making an impact?

Punctuated by Shohei Ohtani and his $70M AAV returning triumphantly from the IL for some home runs against a Rays team that presently doesn't even have a $70M active payroll?

If you hate this prediction, though, take solace in the fact that my 2025 World Series pick at this time last year was Philadelphia over Seattle. Maybe I'll completely whiff again.