Russia intensifies hybrid war beyond Ukraine, rattling Europe

European leaders are raising alarm that Russia is intensifying its years-long hybrid war against NATO member states, lashing out as it struggles to make decisive gains in its nearly five-year war against Ukraine.

Officials say the attacks against European countries include sabotage against infrastructure, targeted violence against political opponents or perceived enemies, and hostile influence operations ranging from bribery, election interference to disinformation campaigns.

In the U.S., members of Russia’s intelligence service plotted assassinations of political dissidents and Ukraine supporters, according to details recently revealed in an indictment by the Department of Justice. The accused remain at large.

“It’s full scale,” Latvia’s Foreign Minister Baiba Braže said in an interview with The Hill.

She described Russia’s actions as a subconventional war against Europe and the U.S. — moving beyond what’s been described as the Kremlin’s “hybrid” or “gray zone” warfare against NATO.

“Those activities cannot be called hybrid anymore because they are actual attacks,” she said.

The public awareness campaign is a key element of Europe’s counterresponse, working to fortify its defenses against such attacks without escalating into a kinetic war with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Of the three Baltic states, Latvia has the distinction of combating hybrid warfare on two borders, both Russia and Belarus. Braže described suspected acts of Russian sabotage in the country as arson on munition factories and warehouses storing arms for Ukraine. And Belarus’s authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has weaponized migration to put pressure on Baltic borders. In August, Latvian authorities said they discovered a tunnel used by migrants to cross over from Belarus.

“It’s an organized migrant activity against the external border of NATO and the EU,” Braže said, describing it as a scheme run by Belarus’s security forces and with ties to Russia.

Another key part of Europe’s defense against Russia is increasing support for Ukraine. This includes weapons, but also the financial backing to support its war-battered economy, and sanctioning and isolating Russian businesses and officials supporting Putin’s war.

President Trump has taken a different track, reaching out to Putin with flattery and reportedly offering economic partnerships without demanding a ceasefire or war-end. Trump earlier this month signed into law a bill that allows him to tariff countries doing the most trade with Russia, but it’s unclear when he might use it.

Braže warned against any economic partnership in Putin’s Russia, where companies face the risk of having their businesses confiscated, nationalized or even punished criminally.

“Currently it’s very difficult to imagine an economy in Russia that is not controlled by this authoritarian regime,” she said. “There is no free economy, so it’s a risk for any entrepreneur, for any company working in Russia.”

Increased vigilance on defending Europe’s borders and critical infrastructure is the priority strategy in combating Russia’s hybrid threats for countries in the region.

Other measures include expelling Russian diplomats suspected of being spies; limiting the entry of Russian nationals to Europe; increasing cooperation among European security services to share information about suspected Russian sabotage; and bolstering security around vulnerable targets, including national infrastructure, military production facilities and even high-profile people.

One option that’s generally not discussed publicly is hitting Russia back with more conventional military action.

That could escalate to full-blown war, cautioned Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, who focuses on defense against gray-zone and hybrid threats.

“It’s important to remember that even though lots of social media users and the armchair generals say we should hit back strongly, powerfully, if we escalated, if we responded with military means to these attacks, then Russia would respond with military means,” she said.

“And we would have war. And surely that can’t be in our interest.”

In the realm of deterrence, CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s August visit with intelligence counterparts in Moscow was in part to warn Russia against escalating sabotage operations in Europe, Reuters reported , citing two people familiar with the matter.

Following the high-profile visit, the Baltic capitals, in particular, have downplayed a conventional Russian military threat, an attempt to lower the temperature, even as officials call out the increasing Russian hybrid warfare.

“I want to emphasize that, at present, Estonia’s military threat assessment remains unchanged,” Estonia’s Minister of Defense Martin Herem posted Wednesday on the social platform X.

He was responding to Denmark’s intelligence assessment released that day raising the possibility Russia could launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia.

The assessment also warned that Russia’s escalating hybrid warfare could “include destructive cyber attacks that cripple critical societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties.”

“Our security authorities have repeatedly succeeded in identifying those responsible for similar attacks and have also prevented a number of attacks before they could take place,” he wrote. “At present, neither Estonia, Denmark nor our other NATO Allies see a threat that would require raising the readiness of the armed forces.”

Braw backs the defensive measures. In her upcoming book, “Undersea War,” she tracks how increased NATO naval patrols in the Baltic Sea have helped halt what had become escalating instances of damage to subsea cables and pipelines — a critical global network powering internet and electric connectivity.

“We’ve had decades of subsea cables and pipelines, and there has only been occasional damage, every so often,” she said.

But over the past five years, “mysterious and very severe incidents involving subsea cables” have increased, she explained, in the Baltic Sea and around Taiwan — which is on the front lines of Chinese aggression.

“That is part of the larger picture that we are seeing in Europe, that Russia is using,” she said.

Earlier this year, the United Kingdom and Norway deployed military vessels to disperse Russian submarines operating near sensitive subsea cables and pipelines. Reuters reported this month that the Russian subs were training with a secret weapon designed to disable undersea cables without leaving any fingerprints, citing two Western officials.

Braw acknowledged Russia’s innovation, but she also pointed to the fact that hybrid or gray zone warfare operations “are not difficult to carry out,” especially with sabotage acts that don’t require high-level training, such as placing explosives at railways or starting fires at warehouses. For subsea cables, it just takes a seafarer dropping and dragging the boat’s anchor.

Russia’s intent is viewed as attempting to disrupt support for Ukraine and cause chaos in Europe, including financial losses, fueling divisions in society and trust in authorities.

“If you can do that at very small expense, and with not very much effort, and with impunity, then if you’re a country like Russia that doesn’t care about its standing in the world, doesn’t care about ethics, morals, or its reputation, then that is clearly a very attractive option,” she said.

The Trump administration is preparing for a three-way meeting between the U.S., Ukraine and Russia for negotiations to end the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday.

“We are waiting for the United States to propose a date. The United States proposed the United Arab Emirates as the venue for such a meeting,” he said.

Meanwhile, Zelensky said Ukraine is offering to help Europe better defend against Russia’s hybrid warfare, specifically in defending against drone incursions. German authorities have blamed Russia for carrying out a foiled drone attack against Leipzig/Halle Airport in August.

The Danish intelligence report warned that there is a low, but growing risk Russia could launch a limited military attack using long-range weapons on critical infrastructure, or a false-flag operation using a Ukrainian-made drone to attack a NATO country.

“Russia’s behavior, their choice, is to continue escalating,” Zelensky said.