'Gaza on verge of exploding': Egypt spy chief warned Israel of Hamas escalation before Oct 7

Egypt’s intelligence chief Abbas Kamel travelled to Israel days before the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and warned Israeli officials that Gaza was heading towards a dangerous escalation, according to a report by The Atlantic.Kamel arrived at Ben Gurion Airport on September 26, 2023, in a chartered plane linked to Egypt’s intelligence service, according to the report. His visit came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other leaders were marking the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, the surprise attack by Egypt and Syria that Israel has long treated as a lesson in intelligence failures.According to Israeli, Egyptian, Arab, US and European officials who were briefed on the visit after October 7, Kamel told Israeli officials that Hamas appeared to be preparing for a major attack. He urged Israel to make economic concessions to Hamas to prevent the situation from spiralling.One former Israeli official later briefed on the meeting told The Atlantic that Kamel’s message was essentially that Gaza was on the verge of exploding if Israel did not change course. However, Kamel did not provide a specific date or details of the multipronged attack that Hamas would launch less than two weeks later.The Egyptian plane remained at Ben Gurion Airport for about 67 minutes before returning to Cairo, according to an Israeli airport-authority flight log. It remains unclear exactly which Israeli officials Kamel met during the visit.What Israel did with the warning remains unclearThe report said officials from seven countries believed the visit should have raised alarms within Israel’s senior leadership. Netanyahu’s office, however, denied after the October 7 attack that the prime minister had received warnings from Egypt.Tzachi Hanegbi, who was then head of Israel’s national-security council, also denied to The Atlantic that Kamel had visited Israel or delivered an Egyptian warning.The September 2023 visit was not the only warning Israel received. According to The Atlantic, Egypt continued raising concerns about Hamas in the days before October 7, while the UAE's president Mohamed bin Zayed also warned Netanyahu about the possibility of a major attack after receiving intelligence from Egyptian and Palestinian sources.A UN envoy had publicly warned on September 27 that the situation around Gaza could have “grave consequences”, while international negotiators were trying to prevent an escalation.Gaza tensions were already risingIn the weeks before the attack, tensions around Gaza had been increasing. Qatar had frozen fuel deliveries to Gaza, while Hamas called for demonstrations at the Erez border crossing. Israel closed the crossing in September after protests.Around 18,000 Gazans had permits to work in Israel, and their inability to cross added to tensions. Egyptian, Qatari and UN negotiators subsequently worked to restore calm, with discussions involving work permits, fuel supplies and other measures.Those efforts temporarily eased tensions. Hamas agreed to pull people back from the border fence, while Israel agreed to reopen the Erez crossing and restore a medical-supply line into Gaza. But, according to negotiators cited by The Atlantic, Hamas was using the talks to buy time while continuing preparations for its attack.The report also said Egypt continued to raise alarms up to two days before October 7. Most of the warnings did not contain a date, target or method of attack, but US, Israeli and Egyptian officials described them as frequent and persistent.The October 7 Hamas attack killed about 1,200 people, primarily civilians, and resulted in 251 people being taken hostage. Israel subsequently launched its military campaign in Gaza.The extent to which the warnings could have changed the outcome remains impossible to determine. But the newly reported details of Kamel’s visit add to the continuing questions over what Israeli officials knew before October 7 and how those warnings were assessed.You use AI every day. Now get your AI Quotient. Take the AIQ test.