India vs. Sri Lanka live win probability, score, chances of victory for Asian Games 2026 semi-final

India will contest Sri Lanka for a spot in the Asian Games 2026 final at the Korogi Athletic Park on Thursday.

Both the teams advanced to this stage after their respective quarterfinals were washed out. They were declared winners without a ball being bowled by virtue of their higher seeding.

India are the defending champions at the Asian Games and have sent their A team in a quest to reclaim gold. Shreyas Iyer leads a stacked Indian side that includes the likes of Vaibhav Sooryavanshi and Jasprit Bumrah.

India vs. Sri Lanka Asian Games 2026 semi-final: Live updates and toss result

​Sri Lanka's spinners have thrown India's middle order into total disarray, striking at crucial moments to leave the innings wobbling at 125/6 after 15 overs. Axar Patel yielded just 8 runs before a delivery from Lasith Croospulle for caught straight to cover.

Matters worsened when Nuwanidu Fernando entered the attack and produced an instant breakthrough, deceiving Tilak Varma (2) with a flighted delivery that spun past the outside edge for a neat stumping. For now Kishan remains last option to take them to a respectable total.

​Sri Lanka's spin attack delivered crucial breakthroughs through the middle phase to check India's rampant scoring, pulling the game back to 88/4 at the halfway stage. Captain Sahan Arachchige made the initial breakthrough by dismissing the dangerous Vaibhav Sooryavanshi for 38, inducing a mistimed loft to short third.

​Ishan Kishan counter-attacked brilliantly with a pair of towering maximums off Viyaskanth and Sahan to keep the scoreboard moving. However, Sri Lanka struck a vital blow right at the end of the 10th over when Wanuja Sahan castled Shreyas Iyer (13) with a delivery that turned sharply off the pitch. With Axar Patel joining Kishan in the middle, Sri Lanka have successfully applied the brakes after India's explosive start.

It's been an absolutely chaotic roller-coaster of a Powerplay start for India, as they've stormed past the 50-run mark inside five overs while losing both Abhishek Sharma and Sanju Samson in the process. Sri Lanka made a tactical call to open with spin, and it paid early. Abhishek (7) top-edged Arachchige to short third, and Samson (7) got castled by a Ratnayake arm ball to give Sri Lanka two early wickets.

But Vaibhav Sooryavanshi quickly made sure it was for nothing, hitting 38* off 16 to help India stay on the offensive. With Shreyas Iyer joining him to restore calm, India have set a roaring tempo at 10.20 runs an over despite the early hiccups.

Toss: Sri Lanka won the toss and chose to bowl first.

India vs. Sri Lanka Asian Games 2026 semi-final: Playing XI

India playing XI: Vaibhav Sooryavanshi, Abhishek Sharma, Sanju Samson(wk), Shreyas Iyer(c), Ishan Kishan, Tilak Varma, Shivam Dube, Axar Patel, Washington Sundar, Ravi Bishnoi, Jasprit Bumrah

Sri Lanka playing XI: Lasith Croospulle, Sineth Jayawardene, Sohan de Livera (WK), Ashen Bandara, Sahan Arachchige (C), Nuwanidu Fernando, Chamika Karunaratne, Wanuja Sahan, Vijayakanth Viyaskanth, Tharindu Rathnayake, Binura Fernando

India vs. Sri Lanka Asian Games 2026 semi-final: Win percentage

India vs. Sri Lanka Asian Games 2026 semi-final: Betting odds

India are the favourites to win the Asian Games 2026 cricket semi-final match at 1.10 on Dafa , with Sri Lanka as the underdogs at 6.60 .

* Odds are correct at the time of publication but subject to change.