Brazil election: Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro hold one-point leads in separate runoff polls

Two Brazilian presidential polls released on Monday produced opposite one-point leads in a possible runoff, with neither President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva nor Senator Flavio Bolsonaro ahead outside the surveys' margins of error.A Quaest poll put Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 41%, while BTG Pactual/Nexus had Lula at 46% against Bolsonaro's 45%. Both surveys had margins of error of two percentage points.Quaest gap narrows from AugustLula led Bolsonaro 44% to 39% in an August 5 Quaest poll. Bolsonaro moved ahead 42% to 40% in the September 14 survey before the difference narrowed to 42%-41% on Monday.The latest Quaest poll surveyed 2,004 people from September 17 to 20. In the first round, it put Lula at 37% and Bolsonaro at 33%, while BTG Pactual/Nexus had them at 40% and 37%, respectively. The latter survey interviewed 2,006 people from September 18 to 20.Brazil votes on October 4. If no candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes, the two leading candidates will advance to an October 25 runoff.Lula is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is barred from public office until 2030. The former president was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison in September 2025 after Brazil's Supreme Court convicted him of plotting a coup to remain in power following his 2022 election defeat.US tariffs enter campaign debateLula announced his fourth-term bid at a Workers' Party convention in Sao Paulo on August 2, putting Brazilian sovereignty at the centre of his campaign message. Two weeks later, he held a campaign launch at the May 1 stadium in Sao Bernardo do Campo, a venue associated with his early labour activism.The sovereignty theme has also featured in Brazil's trade dispute with Washington. The US imposed 25% tariffs on some Brazilian goods in July, citing alleged unfair trade practices. A separate 12.5% tariff measure affecting Brazil and several other countries was linked to US concerns over enforcement against goods produced with forced labour. Brazilian officials rejected the measures as unjustified.Lula has argued that Brazil should determine its future without foreign interference. On Monday, he said his government would hold off on using its reciprocity law against the US while negotiations continued, but could take reciprocal action if the talks failed.Lula in New York ahead of voteLula is in New York for the United Nations General Assembly. He met New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani on Monday and said their discussion included shared economic pressures, particularly household living costs.Brazil traditionally speaks first among member states at the UN General Assembly's general debate, followed by the United States as host country. Lula's New York visit comes less than two weeks before Brazil's October 4 first-round vote.Catch the latest World News and Live updates. Download the TOI app.