Xi’s not interested in a trilateral with Trump and Putin

On Tuesday, the Financial Times reported that Chinese, Russian and American officials are discussing a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, which is scheduled to start on Nov. 18.

The possibility of such a meeting in China, including Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and President Trump, has raised the specter of a modern-day Yalta Conference , the disastrous February 1945 gathering of Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill and Joseph Stalin. That conference led to the Soviet absorption of Eastern Europe.

Many are now concerned that Xi, Putin and Trump will divide up Ukraine behind the backs of its leaders and people. Some analysts are speaking of a “ bad Yalta ” in Shenzhen.

It does not have to turn out that way, of course.

“The good news is that the leaders of the three most powerful nations will sit down to discuss the most pressing issues in our very troubled world,” Blaine Holt, a retired U.S. Air Force general who served as America’s deputy military representative to NATO, told me this month.

Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, told the Financial Times that “work is under way” to organize a trilateral, and China’s foreign ministry said it was “in communication with relevant parties regarding the meeting between the heads of state of China, Russia and the US.”

Moscow would clearly benefit from a three-way meeting.

“Simply taking part in such a summit would elevate Russia’s status alongside the U.S. and China, help break its diplomatic isolation, potentially drive a further wedge between the U.S. and Europe and provide an important platform for its narrative of Western threats to Russia,” wrote Eva Seiwert in the Diplomat.

Trump appears to like the idea of a grand gathering, as he has been pushing both Beijing and Moscow to participate in talks to reduce nuclear weapons and has long wanted to broker a peace in the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump did not rule out a discussion about the conflict in China.

But despite the foreign ministry’s statement, the Chinese are the least enthusiastic about a trilateral. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, after meeting Xi in Beijing on Oct. 30, said the Chinese leader had no interest in hosting a Ukraine-focused summit with Russia and the U.S.

“From his perspective, there is absolutely no preparation under way for a Ukraine summit involving the U.S., Russia and China,” Steinmeier told German public broadcaster ARD.

Xi apparently wants to avoid talking about the faraway war, taking the view that Ukraine has nothing to do with China. “He explicitly pointed out that this is a European conflict in which Europeans would also have to be at the negotiating table,” Steinmeier said .

Yes, it’s a European conflict, but China is a direct participant. After all, Beijing has been financing Russia’s war . It has continuously provided diplomatic and propaganda support to Moscow, and it has been supplying weapons components to Putin. China has allowed its citizens to travel to fight as mercenaries for Russia. There are People’s Liberation Army officers in Russia, and Beijing has been training Russian soldiers on Chinese soil.

In any event, the Chinese have made it clear where they stand. In July 2025, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told European Union foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas that Beijing does not want to see Russia lose in Ukraine because then the U.S. would be able to focus on China in East Asia. China, by implication, believes that the battle for the future of the world is now being fought on European soil.

As Andrew Michta of the Atlantic Council told me, and as China evidently believes, it is not possible to disaggregate Asia and Europe, which after all, are part of the same land mass. Similarly, Taiwanese believe that the fate of their island republic is being determined on the battlefields of Eastern Europe.

In any event, Xi, once in a private room with Putin and Trump, will almost certainly not be able to control the conversation.

“We hear Xi Jinping say any mention of the Ukraine war is off the table,” Holt noted. “But what happens when the door closes and it’s just the three of them and their interpreters? Pragmatism will take over when these essential discussions begin.”

Xi has a lot of reasons to be unhappy about Putin and Trump hijacking the Shenzhen meeting.

“A high-profile trilateral could overshadow the APEC summit, which Beijing wants to use to showcase its economic leadership and promote openness, innovation and cooperation,” wrote Seiwert.

The Chinese leader needs the world to focus on his shaky narrative of success, especially now when there are clear signs of a downturn in the country’s economy and the evident fraying of social cohesion throughout China. He does not need anyone undermining his propaganda narratives by talking about something else.