US midterms 2026: Polling guru Allan Lichtman, who accurately predicted 9 of last 11 presidential races, sees headwinds for Democrats

Historian Allan Lichtman, who predicted nine of the last 11 US presidential elections correctly, expects Democrats to take control of both chambers of Congress in next week's midterm elections, forecasting a setback for President Donald Trump's Republican Party.Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, DC, said national polling, Trump's approval ratings, voter enthusiasm and early voting trends indicate that Democrats are gaining ground ahead of the November 3 elections.In an interview with The Times (UK), Lichtman said the political environment was particularly unfavourable for Republicans, pointing to the president's low approval ratings and the historical losses suffered by the party controlling the White House during midterm elections."When the approval rating for a president is as low as Trump's, on average the White House party loses 40 House and six Senate seats," Lichtman said. He clarified that the figures were not his prediction but an indication of the political conditions facing Republicans.Lichtman said Democrats currently hold an advantage of seven to 11% points over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, which measures voter preferences for which party should control Congress. He considers this measure a more reliable indicator than polls focused on individual races.He also pointed to a shift in voter enthusiasm. While Republicans typically record higher turnout, Lichtman said Democrats appeared more motivated this time. He added that early voting figures were also favourable to the party.The historian puts Democrats' chances of winning control of the Senate at 67%, with a 51-49 majority his most likely outcome.Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage in the Senate, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. Lichtman expects the party to make gains in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas while retaining its seat in Michigan. He also identified Alaska as a potential Democratic pickup, with former Representative Mary Peltola among the candidates he expects to benefit.He pointed to the competitiveness of races in traditionally Republican states as another indication of the changing political landscape."It's amazing that Democrats are competitive in South Carolina, which Trump won by 18 points," he said. "Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the Great Depression in 1932 and yet that's a neck-and-neck race, as is Iowa."Lichtman also expects Democrats to take control of the House, where Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 majority. He puts the party's chances of winning the chamber at more than 90%.He attributed some of the Republican Party's difficulties to what he described as weak candidates, naming Ken Paxton in Texas, Roger Marshall in Kansas and Darline Graham in South Carolina.The historian also criticised the influence of wealthy donours and outside spending in the election campaigns. He argued that large financial contributions were affecting the political contest and pointed to billionaire Elon Musk's support for Republican candidates.Lichtman compared the current political climate to the 1966 midterm elections, when Democrats suffered major losses under then-President Lyndon B Johnson amid growing opposition to the Vietnam War and domestic unrest.His latest assessment comes after he incorrectly predicted that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would defeat Trump in the 2024 presidential election. He also missed the outcome of the 2000 race between Al Gore and George W Bush.You use AI every day. Now get your AI Quotient. Take the AIQ test.