US, Iran engaged in tanker war: Where is the months-long conflict headed?

The United States and Iran have escalated tit-for-tat attacks in the past 24 hours, with Washington targeting three Iranian oil tankers and Tehran hitting tankers and firing a ballistic missile towards US warships patrolling near the Strait of Hormuz.

Experts have dubbed Iran’s targeting of the two US aircraft carriers a “calculated escalation”, as the months-long fighting is increasingly playing out at sea, with both sides trying to exert control over the strategic strait – a global chokepoint used by Tehran as leverage in the war.

The attacks on tankers come as the US claims that an increasing volume of oil has started to flow through the strait, though the exact figures are still debatable, while the naval blockade of Iranian ports continues.

The latest exchanges further dim hopes for a de-escalation through diplomacy as the US-Israel war on Iran has disrupted energy supplies and slowed economic growth around the world.

So, what do we know about the latest tanker wars, and where is the conflict headed?

What do we know about the latest attacks on tankers?

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said its forces struck three Iranian vessels, including a tanker off Kharg Island, the hub through which Iran exported 90 percent of its crude before the war.

Another tanker was struck near Jask, and an unladen vessel was hit in the Gulf of Oman after its crew was told to abandon ship.

CENTCOM said the attacks followed Iranian ballistic missile launches against a US aircraft carrier and navy destroyer, which it said successfully evaded the strikes. No US personnel were injured.

“If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost — taking out three of yours,” CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper said.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it launched “several ballistic missiles” at the aircraft carrier and destroyer, accusing them of “harassing Iranian ships” and taking part in a naval blockade.

“The Iranians did not only target two ordinary warships – they targeted a missile destroyer and, remarkably, an aircraft carrier … the backbone of the American campaign against Iran,” defence analyst Wolfgang Pusztai told Al Jazeera.

“This is a very, very significant development, and it doesn’t come as a surprise that the Americans retaliated.”

Iran then said its forces also targeted three oil tankers travelling through what it called an “unauthorised route” in the Strait of Hormuz and three US-linked vessels elsewhere.

In a statement carried by Iranian broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC navy warned all vessels in the Gulf or near the Strait of Hormuz not to be “deceived” by the US military and to “refrain from any suspicious movement aimed at transiting unauthorised waterways”.

“Otherwise, you will be targeted,” it said.

On Sunday, Iran claimed it struck an unmanned US vessel trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Associated Press news agency.

Washington claimed the Iranian tankers it struck were part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network financing the IRGC and its regional allies.

Iran has long relied partly on a shadow fleet to circumvent sanctions and sell oil, a source of revenue that has become more important since the US began blockading Iranian ports in April.

Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies flowed, in retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks that began on February 28. Some 20 million barrels of oil flowed daily before the war began.

Hassan Ghashghavi, a lawmaker and spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, said the attacks on US warships were part of “an existential war with America”, arguing that Washington’s naval blockade “should never have existed” in the first place.

“Naturally, they have acted militarily in violation of all international laws,” he told Al Jazeera, adding that “because America is far from us, it does not see this war as existential”.

Meanwhile, the US has continued to build pressure on Iran to open the key waterway, both militarily and economically.

Last month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a raft of economic measures to target Tehran’s financial interests across the world.

Bessent said the US would target all of Iran’s sources of revenue, including oil, to prevent other countries and companies from doing business with Tehran.

This comes despite US assertions of normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington insisting the waterway is open and that dozens of ships carrying millions of barrels of oil transit it each day.

Last week, Bessent claimed that some 17 million barrels of crude oil a day had been shipped out recently, according to a report in the United Kingdom’s The Times newspaper. Al Jazeera, however, could not independently verify the claims in the report.

President Donald Trump claimed last month that the US was in “total control” of the strait.

Yet figures from marine analytics firm Kpler show only six vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday and five on Monday, with a 10-day average of just 13 vessels per day.

The attacks are adding to concerns about global energy supplies.

Brent crude futures closed on Friday at $96.28 a barrel, their highest level since July 24, up from roughly $70 before the war.

Predictably, US oil and gas prices have also skyrocketed, coming at a crucial time for Trump as Americans head to the polls for midterm elections in November.

Diesel hit a new record price in the US on Friday, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon ($1.55 per litre) for the first time ever. Polls have repeatedly suggested a majority of Americans oppose the war, which has also plunged Trump’s popularity.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted in late August found that only 31 percent of Americans back the war, while 63 percent are against it.

The same polling suggested Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 33 percent, down from 40 percent since the fighting began.

The renewed exchanges of strikes between Iran and the US mark an escalation in the six-month-long conflict, according to the director of the Middle East studies programme at George Washington University, Sina Azodi.

Azodi told Al Jazeera that neither side will “cave in” because it “will not look good on them, so the only option is to escalate”.

He said unless there is a political settlement, the war will continue.

“There’s going to be more clashes between the Iranians and the Americans. There can be miscalculations. There can be more civilian casualties”, especially on the Iranian side, Azodi said.

“The [US] secretary of defence can send more troops to the region, but I don’t think the Iranians are going to back down. They’re going to resist that blockade and impose further costs on the United States.”

He said the goal of the US and Iran is to force the other to back down. “The winner is going to be the one that can accept more costs and punishment,” Azodi said.

Commenting on Iran’s strategy, Ali Akbar Dareini, an analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran, echoed Azodi, saying the US attacks on Iranian oil tankers are a “big issue” that Iran cannot afford to let “go unanswered”.

“Does it make Iran surrender? No, it compels Iran. It incentivises Iran to lash out and retaliate” more harshly, Dareini told Al Jazeera.

He said the US naval blockade, coupled with sanctions, is inflicting severe pain on Iran, but added the latter has plans to counter it. Iran cannot tolerate this naval blockade to continue, so Iran is already making preparations to break the siege.

“At the same time, Iran definitely has its own plans to make sure that oil prices will shoot up over $100 per barrel,” Dareini said.