Rival factions, civil war & shadow of terror: Why Libya is still broken 15 years after Gaddafi's bloody end

Muammar Gaddafi's 42-year rule over Libya ended violently near his hometown of Sirte on October 20, 2011, when opposition fighters captured and killed him.His death marked the culmination of an uprising that began months earlier and was bolstered by a Nato-led military intervention. But the fall of one of Africa's longest-serving rulers did not bring the oil-rich North African country the stability many Libyans had hoped for.Fifteen years later, Libya remains divided between rival political administrations and competing centres of military power. Although a unified national budget was approved in April 2026 and a United Nations-backed agreement in August set out steps towards long-delayed elections, the country continues to struggle with political fragmentation, armed groups and disputes over state resources.The question, therefore, is not just how Gaddafi fell, but why his removal failed to bring stability to Libya.Why Gaddafi's regime fellThe uprising against Muammar Gaddafi began in February 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests that had toppled long-serving rulers in Tunisia and Egypt.Protests erupted in Benghazi on February 15, following the arrest of government critics, including a lawyer representing families of prisoners killed in the 1996 Abu Salim prison massacre. Libyan security forces responded with tear gas, batons and violence against demonstrators.The crackdown escalated the protests into an armed rebellion, with opposition forces taking control of parts of eastern Libya. On February 26, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1970, imposing sanctions and referring the situation to the International Criminal Court.On March 17, it adopted Resolution 1973, authorising member states to take “all necessary measures” to protect civilians. Nato took command of the military operation on March 31, enforcing an arms embargo and no-fly zone and conducting military operations.Tripoli fell to opposition forces on August 21, 2011, forcing Gaddafi's regime out of the capital. Two months later, as rebels overran his hometown of Sirte, Gaddafi attempted to flee in a convoy that came under Nato air strikes.He was captured alive by fighters from Misrata on October 20 and killed shortly afterwards. A subsequent Human Rights Watch investigation found evidence that he had been beaten and wounded after his capture, raising questions over a possible extrajudicial killing.What happened to Libya after Gaddafi's deathGaddafi's death in October 2011 left Libya facing the challenge of building a new political system while armed groups that had fought his regime retained their weapons and influence.The National Transitional Council oversaw the transition before handing power to an elected General National Congress in August 2012. However, successive governments struggled to bring militias under state control, while political divisions and insecurity continued to deepen.Libya's civil war deepens the divideLibya descended into a full-scale civil war in 2014, as political divisions and rival armed groups fractured the country.In May that year, military commander Khalifa Haftar launched Operation Dignity against Islamist militant groups and other opponents in eastern Libya, including Benghazi. Two months later, a separate campaign known as Libya Dawn emerged in western Libya, as Misrata-based armed groups and their allies fought rival factions, particularly over control of Tripoli International Airport.The fighting left Libya divided between rival political and military camps in the east and west, each establishing its own institutions and command structures.The security vacuum also allowed Islamic State (ISIS) to expand its presence. The group established a foothold in Derna before consolidating control over Sirte in 2015, turning Gaddafi's hometown into its main stronghold in Libya.ISIS imposed its rule through public executions, kidnappings and intimidation, while recruiting local fighters and former regime personnel.The United Nations Security Council warned in 2015 that the group's growing presence, alongside other extremist organisations, posed a serious threat to Libya and the wider region.In December 2015, a UN-brokered political agreement paved the way for the Government of National Accord, intended to reunify Libya's institutions. But the arrangement struggled to establish authority across the country. However, forces aligned with the internationally recognised government, supported by US air strikes, drove ISIS from Sirte in December 2016.Haftar's forces eventually launched an offensive against Tripoli in April 2019. The United Arab Emirates and Egypt supported Haftar's eastern camp, while Turkey provided crucial military support to Tripoli-aligned forces. Russia also backed Haftar's forces, including through personnel linked to the Wagner Group. These competing external interests reinforced Libya's internal divisions and complicated efforts to reach a political settlement.A UN-backed ceasefire in October 2020 halted large-scale fighting between the principal camps, but rival administrations and competing security structures endured.Libya after 2020The ceasefire of October 2020 ended large-scale fighting between Libya's rival eastern and western camps, but failed to reunify the country's political and military institutions.A UN-backed process installed Abdul Hamid Dbeibah as head of the Government of National Unity (GNU) in 2021, with elections intended to end the transitional period. The vote was postponed indefinitely amid disputes over electoral laws and candidate eligibility.In 2022, the eastern-based House of Representatives appointed a rival administration, leaving Libya divided between competing governments.The division remains central to Libya's current political and military landscape.The GNU, led by Dbeibah, operates from Tripoli in the west, while an eastern-based administration led by Osama Hamad is backed by the House of Representatives and Khalifa Haftar's Libyan Arab Armed Forces, also known as the Libyan National Army.Haftar's forces control much of eastern Libya and have expanded their influence and security presence in parts of the south.Western Libya, meanwhile, remains divided among government-aligned and other armed formations.Although the main east-west front has remained largely quiet since the ceasefire, rival military structures and local militia rivalries continue to pose security risks.The US Congressional Research Service reported in July 2026 that Haftar's forces had expanded their influence in the south and strengthened their military capabilities, including through drones.The political deadlock has also complicated efforts to organise national elections.In August 2026, a UN-facilitated agreement set out steps to reform the High National Elections Commission and address outstanding issues in the legal framework for presidential and parliamentary elections. The parties committed to work towards holding the vote within 24 months, rather than agreeing on a fixed election date.However, the process has encountered fresh resistance.In an October 14 briefing to the UN Security Council, UN Special Representative Hanna S. Tetteh said the House of Representatives had endorsed the agreement, but the High State Council rejected it on October 5, citing concerns over constitutional, legal and consensual procedures.The setback underlines how even a negotiated roadmap can become another point of contention between rival institutions.Oil wealth, economic pressure and failing public servicesDespite possessing Africa's largest proven oil reserves, Libya continues to face serious economic and fiscal vulnerabilities. Oil remains the backbone of its economy, accounting for 65 per cent of GDP, 93 per cent of exports and 72 per cent of government revenue in 2024, according to the World Bank.Production recovery has supported economic growth, but dependence on hydrocarbons leaves public finances exposed to disruptions caused by political disputes, fluctuating oil output and weak fiscal management.The International Monetary Fund warned in April 2026 that Libya's fiscal position had become increasingly vulnerable, estimating the budget deficit at around 30 per cent of GDP in 2025 and public debt at 146 per cent of GDP over the preceding two years. The IMF called for urgent fiscal adjustment to ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves, the dinar and inflation.In April, representatives of Libya's House of Representatives and High Council of State agreed to a unified national budget worth 190 billion Libyan dinars, or about $29.95 billion. It was the first such agreement since 2013.Central Bank Governor Naji Issa, who supervised the signing, described it as “a clear declaration that Libya is capable of overcoming its differences when a unified vision for its future is forged”.The agreement was intended to improve financial coordination and support development spending across the country, although its implementation remains a separate test. The deal marked progress in financial coordination, but it did not resolve the political divisions underpinning the country's wider crisis.The consequences of fragmentation are particularly visible in public services and infrastructure. The September 2023 floods that devastated Derna exposed failures in infrastructure maintenance, disaster preparedness and public accountability.Public services remain weak despite the country's oil wealth. The World Bank has highlighted shortcomings in healthcare, education, water and electricity provision, alongside high unemployment, corruption concerns and an underdeveloped private sector.These problems continue to constrain Libya's development, even as oil revenues offer the country significant financial resources.Fragile peace, uncertain futureAlthough Libya has avoided a return to full-scale civil war since the 2020 ceasefire, rival military structures, powerful armed groups and foreign involvement continue to threaten stability.Briefing the UN Security Council on October 14, Tetteh warned that “institutional and political fragmentation have continued to impact negatively on the economic and security situation in the country”.She said many Libyans were seeing their purchasing power eroded by rising food prices, a weaker dinar and inflation above 14 per cent, while access to essential public services remained unreliable.Tetteh also cautioned that the path to stability remained difficult, saying, “The path to a stable, unified, and prosperous Libya remains long, but our destination remains within reach.” She urged Libyan political actors to demonstrate the flexibility and political will needed to reach common ground.Fifteen years after Gaddafi's death, Libya's challenge is no longer simply to prevent another civil war. It is to build a state capable of controlling armed groups, managing oil revenues transparently and delivering reliable public services.The election roadmap and unified budget offer potential steps towards greater stability, but neither guarantees lasting peace. Libya's future will depend on whether rival leaders can turn these commitments into a functioning political settlement.You use AI every day. Now get your AI Quotient. Take the AIQ test.